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DIARY - European Central Bank (ECB) events to July 3

Reuters: [2008-05-14 16:16:00]

  ======================================================      
This diary includes speeches and public appearances by members of the ECB's 
Governing Council, which sets monetary policy for the 15-nation euro zone. 
Refinancing tenders are listed at the bottom of this diary. 
 
Some ECB events are also listed at http://www.ecb.int/events/html/index.en.html 
All details of events are provisional, and inclusion of an event on this diary 
  does not necessarily mean Reuters will cover it. 
     
    For euro zone economic data, please double-click on: 
    <EUROLANDMAY> for indicators released this month or 
    <EUROLANDJUN> for indicators released next month 
     
    For other related diaries, please double-click on: 
    [CEN/DIARY] - Major central bank events for 2008 
    [M/DIARY]   - Top economic events worldwide, 
    [IND/DIARY] - Index of  all Reuters diaries.     
    [MI/DIARY]  - Highlights of today's top events of interest 
                  to money markets.     
     ----------------------------------------- 
  
 THURSDAY, MAY 15 
 BRUSSELS- Brussels Economic Forum (to May 16); EU Economic and 
Monetary Affairs Commissioner Joaquin Almunia (0930-1000 GMT), 
Dutch finance minister Wouter Bos, Spain's economy minister 
Pedro Solbes speak between 1000-1145 GMT on various panels. IMF 
head Dominique Strauss-Kahn speech at 1415-1440 GMT, Asian 
Development Bank's head Haruhiko Kuroda, ECB Vice-President 
Lucas Papademos, U.S. Treasury Undersecretary for internatioanl 
affairs David McCormick and China central bank governor Zhou 
Xiaochuan to speak between 1430-1600 GMT.- 
  
 VIENNA- 40th Annual conference of the International Capital 
Market Association (to May 16), featuring ECB President 
Jean-Claude Trichet (1140 GMT) and ECB Governing Council Member 
Yves Mersch (1300 GMT). lINK: http://www.icma-group.org/- 
  
 FRANKFURT- ECB publishes its monthly Bulletin - 0800 GMT 
  
 FLORENCE, Italy- Conference organised by provincial government 
of Florence with European Central Bank Executive Board member 
Lorenzo Bini Smaghi - 1500 GMT 
  
 FRIDAY, MAY 16 
 BRUSSELS- Brussels Economic Forum (final day) ECB President 
Jean-Claude Trichet to speak (0900 GMT), Portuguese finance 
minister Fernando Teixeira dos Santos (0930), ECB Governing 
Council member Erkki Liikanen (1100 GMT).- 
  
 LISBON- ECB Governing Council Member Vitor Constancio to speak 
at a conference in Lisbon.- 
  
 WEDNESDAY, MAY 21 
 FRANKFURT- ECB Governing Council meeting. No interest rate 
announcements scheduled. Any announcement about other issues to 
be released at 1230 GMT.- 
  
 THURSDAY, MAY 22 
 ELTVILLE, Germany - ECB Governing Council member Axel Weber 
opens 10th Bundesbank Spring Conference on central banks and 
globalisation (0700-0730 GMT).- 
  
 SATURDAY, MAY 24 
 JERUSALEM- Israel to host the Group of Thirty (G30) Spring 
Meeting (to May 26). Attendeed include; ECB Governor Jean-Claude 
Trichet and Bank of England Governor Mervyn King as well as the 
central bank chiefs of India and China.- 
  
 FRIDAY, MAY 30 
 LUXEMBOURG- Luxembourg Prime Minister and Eurogroup chairman 
Jean-Claude Juncker hosts the Luxembourg Financial Forum 2008. 
Themes include: Financial markets: trapped in a global crisis? 
Confidence and competence: the future of private banking. 
Eurogroup: an 
  
 assessment of the first 10 years with ECB Executive Board member 
Juergen Stark (1300 GMT)- 
  
 FRANKFURT- ECB Governing Council member Axel Weber opens a 
symposium to mark the 10th anniversary of the ECB- 
  
 FRANKFURT- ECB Governing Council member Axel Weber attends the 
opening of the University of Frankfurt's House of Finance with 
German Finance Minister Peer Steinbrueck- 
  
 SATURDAY, MAY 31 
 TRENTO- Continuation of five-day economy event on "Markets and 
Democracy". Among expected attendees are ECB Executive Board 
member Lorenzo Bini Smaghi, employers' association Confindustria 
for Sicily region Chairman Ivan Lo Bello, Gruppo Editoriale 
L'Espresso <ESPI.MI> Chairman Carlo De Benedetti, Mediaset 
<MS.MI> Chairman Fedele Confalonieri- 0800 GMT 
  
 ROME- ECB Governing Council member and Bank of Italy Governor 
Mario Draghi presents annual report - 0830 GMT 
  
 SUNDAY, JUNE 1 
 FRANKFURT- 10th Anniversary of the founding of the European 
Central Bank. Link: www.ecb.int- 
  
 JUNE 2008 
ATHENS- ECB governing council member and governor at the Bank of 
Greece Nicholas Garganas to step down in June.- 
  
 SUNDAY, JUNE 1 
 CANNES, France- ECB Executive Board member Jose Manuel 
Gonzalez-Paramo to give keynote speech at the Global ABS 2008 
conference (to June 4). Link: http://secure.imn.org/- 1800 GMT 
  
 MONDAY, JUNE 2 
 FRANKFURT- EuroGroup Finance Ministers meeting.- 
  
 TUESDAY, JUNE 3 
 PARIS- Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development 
(OECD) Forum 2008. 'Reform to Perform - Towards a more 
prosperous, stable and sustainable future' and Climate Change, 
Prosperity and Stability (to June 4). Speakers include European 
Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet, WTO Director-General 
Pascal Lamy, and OECD Secretary-General Angel Gurria- 
  
 LUXEMBOURG- EU Economic and Finance Ministers (ECOFIN) meeting.- 
 
  
 THURSDAY, JUNE 5 
 FRANKFURT- ECB Governing Council meeting, followed by interest 
rate announcement 1145 GMT. News conference follows at 1230 
GMT.- 
  
 FRIDAY, JUNE 6 
 FRANKFURT- ECB Executive Board member Juergen Stark addresses a 
FORUM institute conference on "The subprime crisis: challenges 
for monetary policy" (0715 GMT)- 
  
 LONDON- ECB Governing Council member Axel Weber speaks at 
Financial Markets Group public lecture on "Financial Market 
Stability"- 1700 GMT 
  
 TUESDAY, JUNE 10 
 HELSINKI- ECB Governing Council member Erkki Liikanen to speak 
at a Bank of Finland quarterly event (0800 GMT).- 
  
 THURSDAY, JUNE 12 
 FRANKFURT- ECB publishes its monthly Bulletin - 0800 GMT 
  
 THURSDAY, JUNE 19 
 FRANKFURT- ECB Governing Council and General Council meeting. No 
interest rate announcements scheduled. Any announcement about 
other issues to be released at 1230 GMT.- 
  
 WEDNESDAY, JUNE 25 
 BRUSSELS- ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet testifies before the 
European Parliament's Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs 
(0930-1230 GMT).- 
  
 THURSDAY, JULY 3 
 FRANKFURT- ECB Governing Council meeting, followed by interest 
rate announcement 1145 GMT. News conference follows at 1230 
GMT.- 
  
 SUNDAY, JULY 6 
 AIX-EN-PROVENCE, France- (TENTATIVE - CHK DATES) Aix-en-Provence 
- Economic Forum 2008- 1345 GMT 
  
 THURSDAY, JULY 10 
 FRANKFURT- ECB publishes its monthly Bulletin - 0800 GMT 
          ------Main (1-week)--------    ----Long-term (3-month)-----  
       Announce- Allot-    Settle-   Announce-  Allot-  Settle- 
          ment     ment      ment       ment     ment     ment 
 
------------------------------------------------------------------------ 
May                                                         02 
           05       06       07 
           12       13       14 
           19       20       21 
           26       27       28         27        28        29 
------------------------------------------------------------------------ 
June       02       03       04 
           09       10       11 
           16       17       18           
           23       24       25          24        25        26          
           30 
------------------------------------------------------------------------ 
July                01       02 
           07       08       09 
           14       15       16             
           21       22       23             
           28       29       30         29        30        31 
------------------------------------------------------------------------ 
August     04       05       06                                     
           11       12       13 
           18       19       20 
           25       26       27         26        27        28 
------------------------------------------------------------------------ 
September  01       02       03 
           08       09       10 
           15       16       17                                           
           22       23       24         23        24        25             
           29       30 
------------------------------------------------------------------------ 
October                      01                                         
           06       07       08 
           13       14       15                  
           20       21       22 
           27       28       29         28        29        30 
------------------------------------------------------------------------ 
November   03       04       05 
           10       11       12 
           17       18       19                                           
           24       25       26         25        26        27 
------------------------------------------------------------------------ 
December   01       02       03 
           08       09       10 
           15       16       17         16        17        18 
           19       22       23                                     
           29       30       30 
------------------------------------------------------------------------ 
 
SOURCE: European Central Bank (ECB). 
LINK: http://www.ecb.int/events/calendar/caleu/html/index.en.html 
  

*TOP NEWS* Central banks

Reuters: [2008-05-14 16:11:00]

............................................................... 
For news and data, double-click on the codes in brackets. 
Access to some items may depend on subscription level. 
.............................................................. 
> ***SNAPSHOT - WORLD KEY OFFICIAL INTEREST RATES***  [INT/RATE] 
> FACTBOX-Global interest res                     [GLOBAL/INT] 
............................................................... 
 FED 
> Fed's Rosengren: Economy a risk to financial firms[nN14467777] 
> Fed's Kroszner says banks' risk management shaky  [nN14270536] 
> TAKE A LOOK-The outlook for Federal Reserve policy [nFEDAHEAD] 
 
 BOE 
> BoE gives gloomy outlook,little scope for rate cut[nL14821870] 
> HIGHLIGHTS-BoE May Inflation Report news conference    [nKING] 
> TEXT-King's statement on BoE Inflation Report     [nL14710946] 
> INSTANT VIEW-Bank of England Inflation Report     [nL14322249] 
   
 OTHER CENTRAL BANK NEWS    
> China says capital inflows make tightening tough  [nPEK241602] 
> Russia c.bank says will intervene regularly on FX [nL14841077] 
> INTERVIEW-S.Africa correct to raise interest rates[nL14832123] 
> Early 2009 unlikely for Polish ERM2 entry-Skrzypek[nL14818646] 
> PREVIEW-Turkish central bank seen hiking rates 50 [nL14552382] 
> Riksbank's Wickman-Parak -signs credit woes easing[nSAT005201] 
> Kazakh Q1 c.account surplus up, tenge seen stable [nL14782707] 
> Singapore c.bank says to promote sukuk issuance     [nSP20330] 
............................................................... 
> The outlook for Federal Reserve policy             [FED/AHEAD] 
> Reuters coverage of Basel II accord            [ID:nL10281706] 
............................................................... 
 UPCOMING CENTRAL BANK MEETINGS, EVENTS 
| Fed              June 24/25 | BOJ                  May 19/20 | 
| ECB                  June 5 | BoE                   June 4/5 | 
| BOC                 June 10 | RBA                     June 3 | 
| Riksbank*            July 2 | RBNZ                    June 5 | 
| Swiss Nat Bank      June 19 | Norges Bank             May 28 | 
 * Announcement July 3               
 
> Major central bank events                          [CEN/DIARY] 
> Diary of emerging market central bank events        [CEN/EMRG] 
................................................................ 
 REUTERS POLLS                                                
| US Fed Funds rate  [FED/R]  | ECB rates           [ECB/INT] | 
| British rates    [BOE/INT]  | Canadian rates       [CA/INT] | 
| Japanese rates   [BOJ/INT]  | Chinese rates      [CNY/POLL] | 
| Australian rates  [AU/INT]  | Swiss rates         [SNB/INT] | 
| Swedish rates     [SE/INT]  | South African rates  [ZA/INT] | 
| Top poll news      [POLL/] 
 ............................................................... 
 LATEST NEWS ON CENTRAL BANKS 
| Central bank news     [CEN] | U.S. Federal Reserve     [FED] | 
| Bank of Japan         [BOJ] | European Central Bank    [ECB] | 
| Swiss National Bank   [SNB] | Bank of England          [BOE] | 
| All forex news        [FRX] | Economic indicators      [ECI] | 
| Central Bank index<CENTRAL1>| Central bank rates<KEYRATES/1> | 
T ............................................................... 
 CENTRAL BANKERS' COMMENTS 
| Federal Reserve[FED/QUOTES] | ECB                [ECB/QUOTES]| 
| Bank of England[BOE/QUOTES] | Swiss National Bank[SNB/QUOTES]| 
| Sweden Riksbank[RIK/QUOTES] | 
 ............................................................... 
 DIARIES 
| Fed diary       [FED/DIARY] |  ECB diary         [ECB/DIARY] | 
| Today's FX market[MI/DIARY] |  Financial events  [KEY/DIARY] | 
| Diary index     [IND/DIARY] |  Polling diary    [POLL/DIARY] | 
 .............................................................. 
 WEB ADDRESSES 
 Federal Reserve: http://www.federalreserve.gov/ 
 Bank of Japan: http://www.boj.or.jp/en/index.htm 
 European Central Bank: http://www.ecb.int/index.html 
 Bank of England: http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/ 
 Bank of Canada: http://www.bankofcanada.ca/en/ 
 Swiss National Bank: http://www.snb.ch 
 .............................................................. 
 ((David Stamp; London Treasury Desk +44 207 542 7716)) 
  

UPDATE 2-Spanish economy's slide raises euro zone growth fears

Reuters: [2008-05-14 16:10:00]

(Recasts, adds details, analyst comment)

By Andrew Hay

MADRID, May 14 (Reuters) - Spain's economy grew at its slowest pace in nearly 15 years between January and March as housing and credit problems snowballed, raising concerns other parts of the euro zone may be sharing a sharper than expected downturn.

Spain, the first of the euro zone's big four economies to report first quarter growth, grew by 0.3 percent according to preliminary government data -- less than half the 0.8 percent rate of last year's final quarter and below the 0.4 percent pace forecast by both a Reuters poll and the Bank of Spain.

Wednesday's data showed quarter-on-quarter growth was the lowest since a 1993 recession and Spain looked set to underperform the wider euro zone growth rate, forecast at 0.5 percent in the first quarter, for the first time since 1997.

Economists are waiting to see if Germany, France and the Netherlands also disappoint when they report growth data on Thursday. Reuters polls forecast quarterly growth of 0.7 percent, 0.4 percent and 0.3 percent respectively for these three economies <ECONEUROPE>.

"The pace of the (Spanish) slowdown is remarkable," said Ken Wattret at BNP Paribas in London. "The situation is taking a radical turn for the worse and that has ... serious implications for the euro area too."

TRIPLE SHOCK

Spain has outperformed the euro zone for a decade but is suffering a rapid change of fortunes as its credit-hungry economy is hit by the end of a housing boom, tighter borrowing conditions and soaring global food and oil prices.

Problems have spread from construction and property into services and manufacturing as indebted households cut spending, given expectations house prices will fall over the next two years as the unemployment rate enters double digits.

On an annual basis, the Spanish economy grew 2.7 percent in the first quarter, its slowest pace in 5-1/2 years and down from 3.5 percent growth in the final quarter of 2007, the National Statistics Institute reported.

A Reuters poll had forecast 2.8 percent growth.

Economists saw a possible contraction in quarterly growth later this year and heightened chances of a recession -- two consecutive quarters of negative growth.

"Spain is nearing recessionary territory and we see no strong bounceback," said David Owen at Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein.

Problems in Spain will hit Europe, given it drives around 11 percent of euro zone GDP and generated 36 percent of all new jobs in the European Union between 2004 and 2006.

The European Commission on Monday cut its forecasts for growth in the 15 countries that use the euro to 1.7 percent this year and 1.5 percent in 2009.

A rapid slowdown in countries like Italy and Spain has created a dilemma for the European Central Bank as it keeps interest rates on hold, given more robust performance in northern economies and high inflation across the currency bloc.

EMPTY HOUSES

Spain's Socialist government, reelected in March, is banking on ECB rate cuts to support activity and will offer 10 billion euros ($15.46 billion) in tax rebates and cheap credit this year to keep the economy out of recession.

Fashion, furniture and decoration shops are closing after retail sales declined or stagnated in the past six months.

The number of Spaniards claiming unemployment benefits rose for the first April since the early 1980s after the jobless rate hit a 3-year high of 9.6 percent in the first quarter -- the highest rate among European Union states, according to Eurostat.

"This marks the beginning of a long and painful period of adjustment," said Susana Garcia at Deutsche Bank. "I expect a mild contraction in the second quarter and a rebound in the third because of the government fiscal package."

The International Monetary Fund expects Spain's solvent banking system, healthy public accounts and rapid population growth to help spark an economic recovery in 2010.

However, the construction sector drives a fifth of growth -- more than twice the average in euro zone countries -- and an estimated 650,000 new homes now stand empty in Spain. House prices, which have yet to fall by official measures, are estimated to be up to 30 percent overvalued.

Debt default rates are expected to triple over the next two years after the heaviest period of private sector borrowing in Spain's modern history between 2002-2005.

Spanish annual growth is expected to more than halve to 1.8 percent this year from 3.8 percent in 2007, according to a Reuters survey of analysts.

Spain's National Statistics Institute will report final GDP numbers, and a breakdown of results, on May 21. (Additional reporting by Ben Harding and Jason Webb; Editing by Ruth Pitchford)

((andrew.hay@reuters.com, +34 91585 2158; Reuters messaging andrew.hay.reuters.net@reuters.com)) ($1=.6467 Euro)

Keywords: SPAIN GDP

UPDATE 1-Irish finmin: short-term economic outlook unclear

Reuters: [2008-05-14 14:50:00]

(Adds more comments, background)

By Huw Jones

BRUSSELS, May 14 (Reuters) - New Irish Finance Minister Brian Lenihan said on Wednesday there was "considerable uncertainty" in the short-term outlook for his country's economy but Irish banks were in a sound position.

The uncertainty was largely due to external factors such as hikes in oil and food prices that have stoked inflation, said Lenihan who took over as finance minister last week.

"We can't afford to compensate ourselves for these developments, that would simply lead to a further loss of competitiveness and additional job losses," he told reporters.

Lenihan was in Brussels for a regular meeting of European Union finance ministers where calls for wage restraint have featured prominently.

"There is considerable uncertainty in the short-term economic outlook in Ireland," Lenihan said, adding that Irish banks were in a "sound" situation.

An adjustment has been taking place in Ireland's once-booming property sector, slowing the economy which in recent years enjoyed the nickname of the Celtic Tiger because of its fast pace of growth.

"The sector has slowed down substantially and that has had an impact on the economy," Lenihan said, urging restraint in pay claims generally.

"We have an opportunity to continue to resume the track we were on, to have sustainable levels of growth in the future, if we take the necessary steps now to ensure we are in a position to benefit from that when it happens."

Fellow EU finance ministers were anxious to know how preparations were going for Ireland's June 12 referendum on the new EU Lisbon Treaty, he said.

Ireland is the only EU state planning a referendum on the treaty. A "no" vote would be a big setback for the project designed to end years of diplomatic wrangling over how to reform the workings of the bloc's core institutions.

Lenihan said the euro's strength has not been an issue in the campaigning and a "no" vote would damage the Irish economy.

"For me a 'no' vote is a step into isolation for Ireland," Lenihan said.

Ireland is fighting any move by Brussels to introduce an EU-wide system for computing corporate tax bases, fearing it is a first step on a "slippery slope" to harmonised tax rates.

Ireland has one of the lowest rates of corporate tax in the EU, helping to attract big flows of foreign investment.

Lenihan said the new EU treaty would not alter the need for unanimity among European states on tax matters.

EU Tax Commissioner Laszlo Kovacs has suggested a group of states could decide to go ahead with introducing a common corporate tax base if there was no unanimity but Lenihan cast doubt on how this would work.

"There is no agreement on it. I think it's difficult to see enhanced cooperation being invoked," Lenihan said, refering to the possibility of a group of EU states pressing ahead with changes without unanimity.

(editing by William Schomberg)

((Reuters Messaging: huw.jones.reuters.com@reuters.net; + 32 2 287 6817; huw.jones@reuters.com))

Keywords: IRELAND ECONOMY/LENIHAN

Irish finmin: short-term economic outlook unclear

Reuters: [2008-05-14 13:48:00]

BRUSSELS, May 14 (Reuters) - Irish Finance Minister Brian Lenihan said on Wednesday there was uncertainty in the short-term outlook for the Irish economy but Irish banks were in a sound position.

The uncertainty was largely due to external factors such as hikes in oil and food prices, he said.

"We can't afford to compensate ourselves for these developments ... it would lead to job losses," said Lenihan, in Brussels for regular talks among European Union finance ministers where calls for wage restraint have featured. ((Reuters Messaging: huw.jones.reuters.com@reuters.net; + 32 2 287 6817; huw.jones@reuters.com))

Keywords: IRELAND ECONOMY/LENIHAN

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