> Finance & Stock Exchange > Banks and financial institutions > European Central Bank
FACTBOX-Inflationary pressures in the euro zone
Reuters: [2008-05-06 17:46:00]
May 6 (Reuters) - The European Central Bank remains
concerned about future inflation pressures as it frets over the impact of rising
food and oil prices and stronger-than-expected wage deals.
Here is a look at some of the indicators the ECB is monitoring for signs of
a broader inflationary spiral before its rate-setting meeting on May 8.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
HARMONISED INDEX OF CONSUMER PRICES
Inflation, down from March's record level, is threatening to push higher
again as the price of oil continues to rise. Underlying core consumer price
inflation, measured by excluding volatile unprocessed food and energy costs,
rose faster than at any time in the last year. The producer price index, which
is more influenced by raw material prices and less by labour costs, also rose.
CONSUMER PRICE INDEX
APR MAR FEB JAN DEC NOV OCT SEP AUG 12-mo avg*
Total y/y 3.3 3.6 3.3 3.2 3.1 3.1 2.6 2.1 1.7 2.5
-Ex energy, food** --- 2.7 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.2
Producer Prices:
Total industry --- 5.7 5.4 5.0 4.4 4.2 3.3 2.7 1.7 n/a
(ex-construction)
** Excluding energy and unprocessed food. This is commonly referred to as
the core rate.
* 12 months from February 2007 to February 2008
FOR FOLLOWING DOUBLE CLICK ON CODES IN SQUARE BRACKETS:
PPI table [ID:nBFA000634] HICP table [ID:nBFA000611]
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
PURCHASING MANAGERS' INDEX
Manufacturers face marginally lower production costs but the rate at which
they raised prices matched February's 11-month high. In the services sector,
input prices reached their highest level since October 2000 while prices charged
to customers reached their highest in 12 months.
APR MAR FEB JAN DEC NOV OCT SEP APR 07
Manufacturing:
-Input Prices 67.4 68.6 66.1 64.8 61.5 61.7 59.0 59.6 65.6
-Output Prices 56.4 55.5 56.4 55.6 53.8 53.6 53.2 53.4 54.7
Services:
-Prices charged 53.5 53.9 52.0 52.8 53.7 53.6 52.2 53.4 54.4
-Input prices 63.5 63.2 60.6 62.1 63.0 63.4 60.6 59.1 59.3
(A number below 50 shows a decline in price)
PMI services [ID:nL22117644] Manufacturing [ID:nL0174705]
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT DEFLATOR FOR PRIVATE CONSUMPTION
While the ECB does not refer to this indicator, it is another way of looking
at inflation and one favoured by the U.S. Federal Reserve. It looks at how much
nominal growth in private consumption was driven by changes in prices, and it
has advantages over the fixed basket of goods in the HICP because the deflator
automatically reflects changes in consumption patterns.
This indicator shows price pressure increased:
2007 Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1 2006 Q4 2007 2006 2005 2004
Total 2.2 2.1 2.2 2.1 1.7 2.2 1.9 1.9 1.9
(Source: ECB bulletin)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
LABOUR COSTS
After a slight moderation, average wages rises negotiated by trade unions
continued to hover just above 2 percent in the fourth quarter of 2007 following
a pick up in the first half of the year.
2007 Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1 2006 Q4 2007 2006
Negotiated wages 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.0 2.5 2.2 2.3
Total hourly labour costs 2.7 2.5 2.6 2.2 2.1 2.5 2.5
Unit Labour Costs 2.0 1.4 1.4 1.0 0.2 1.5 1.0
(Source: ECB bulletin)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
ECONOMIC SURVEY OF PROFESSIONAL FORECASTERS
Professional forecasters have left their forecasts for inflation unchanged
for 2007, 2008 and 2009, ECB data showed in February.
HICP 2007 2008 2009 Longer-term
Latest survey Q1 2008 - 2.5 2.0 2.0
Prev. survey Q4 2007 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.9
Survey [ID:nFAT003933]
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
EURO ZONE CONSUMER AND BUSINESS ECONOMIC SENTIMENT SURVEY
Manufacturers foresee a drop in selling prices but consumers expect them to
rise. The indicators are well above the long-term average.
APR MAR FEB JAN DEC NOV OCT SEP
Manufacturer sale price outlook 12 13 14 14 13 12 11 11
Consumer price trend outlook for 28 26 28 28 28 28 26 28
next 12 months
(Source: European Commission
(http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/db_indicators/db_indicators8650_en.htm)
(http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/indicators/business_consumer_surveys/2008/bcs_2008_04_en.pdf)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
BREAK-EVEN INFLATION RATES
The break-even inflation rate priced into inflation-linked bonds rose in May
after increases headline inflation, suggesting either that investors are
becoming more concerned about the medium-term inflation outlook or that
technical factors drove the move.
Over the next 4-7 years, the break-even rate is over 2.3 percent
<INFLATION01>, above the ECB's 2 percent inflation ceiling and the 1.9 percent
inflation expectations recorded in mid-2005.
French OATei and Italian indexed bonds, in basis points <BNPPINFLATION1>
May08 Mar08 Dec08 Dec07 Dec06 Dec05 End-04
French OATei July 2015 2.38 2.27 2.15 2.24 2.18 2.03 2.18
Italy BTPei Sept 2014 2.38 2.25 2.13 2.22 2.17 2.01 2.24
* For French 10-year linker, 2005 year low is 1.90 percent July.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(reporting by Marc Jones)
((marc.jones@reuters.com; +49 (0) 69 7565 1219 Reuters Messaging;
marc.jones.reuters.com@reuters.net))
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Reuters: [2008-05-06 16:22:00]
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ECB-Gold reserves unchanged in week to May 2
Reuters: [2008-05-06 15:06:00]
FRANKFURT, May 6 (Reuters) - Gold and gold receivables held by euro zone central banks remained unchanged at 209.643 billion euros in the week ending May 2, the European Central Bank said on Tuesday.
Net foreign exchange reserves in the Eurosystem of central banks fell by 0.1 billion euros to 153.3 billion euros, the ECB said in its regular weekly consolidated financial statement.
For details of the report, please see the website: http://www.ecb.int/press
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DIARY - European Central Bank (ECB) events to July 03
Reuters: [2008-05-06 14:37:00]
======================================================
This diary includes speeches and public appearances by members of the ECB's
Governing Council, which sets monetary policy for the 15-nation euro zone.
Refinancing tenders are listed at the bottom of this diary.
Some ECB events are also listed at http://www.ecb.int/events/html/index.en.html
All details of events are provisional, and inclusion of an event on this diary
does not necesarily mean Reuters will cover it.
For euro zone economic data, please double-click on:
<EUROLANDMAY> for indicators released this month or
<EUROLANDJUN> for indicators released next month
For other related diaries, please double-click on:
[CEN/DIARY] - Major central bank events for 2008
[M/DIARY] - Top economic events worldwide,
[IND/DIARY] - Index of all Reuters diaries.
[MI/DIARY] - Highlights of today's top events of interest
to money markets.
-----------------------------------------
TUESDAY, MAY 6
BRUSSELS- ECB Executive Board member Gertrude Tumpel-Gugerell
speaks at a High Level Evening Penal Discussion organised by the
Oesterreichische Nationalbank (OeNB) - 1730 GMT
WEDNESDAY, MAY 7
FRANKFURT- ECB Executive Board members Lorenzo Bini Smaghi and
Juergen Stark to present convergence report on euro adoption -0700 GMT
THURSDAY, MAY 8
ATHENS- ECB Governing Council meeting, followed by interest rate
announcement 1145 GMT. News conference follows at 1230 GMT.-
MONDAY, MAY 12
MILAN- Start of three-day forum "The Economy and The Open
Society". Keynote speech delivered by ECB President Jean-Claude
Trichet - 1430 GMT
TUESDAY, MAY 13
BRUSSELS- EuroGroup finance ministers meeting- 1600 GMT
PARIS- ECB Governing Council member Christian Noyer and
President of Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank Sandra Pianalto to
participate at the Global Interdependence Center meeting. Link:
http://www.interdependence.org/ - 1410 GMT
WEDNESDAY, MAY 14
BRUSSELS- EU Economic and Finance Ministers (ECOFIN) meeting -0700 GMT
THURSDAY, MAY 15
BRUSSELS- Brussels Economic Forum (to May 16) EU Economic and
Monetary Affairs Commissioner Joaquin Almunia (0930-1000), Dutch
finance minister Wouter Bos, Spain's economy minister Pedro
Solbes and Italy's finance minister Tommaso Padoa-Schioppa to
speak between 1000-1145 in various panels. IMF head Dominique
Strauss-Kahn speech at 1415-1440, Asian Development Bank's head
Haruhiko Kuroda, ECB Vice-President Lucas Papademos, U.S.
Treasury Undersecretary for internatioanl affairs David
McCormick and China central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan to
speak between 1440-1600.-
VIENNA- 40th Annual conference of the International Capital
Market Association (to May 16), featuring ECB President
Jean-Claude Trichet (1140 GMT) and ECB Governing Council Member
Yves Mersch (1300 GMT). lINK: http://www.icma-group.org/-
FRANKFURT- ECB publishes its monthly Bulletin - 0800 GMT
FRIDAY, MAY 16
BRUSSELS- Brussels Economic Forum (final day) ECB President
Jean-Claude Trichet to speak (0900 GMT), Portuguese finance
minister Fernando Teixeira dos Santos (0930), ECB Governing
Council member Erkki Liikanen (1100 GMT).-
LISBON- ECB Governing Council Member Vitor Constancio to speak
at a conference in Lisbon.-
WEDNESDAY, MAY 21
FRANKFURT- ECB Governing Council meeting. No interest rate
announcements scheduled. Any announcement about other issues to
be released at 1230 GMT.-
THURSDAY, MAY 22
ELTVILLE, Germany - ECB Governing Council member Axel Weber
opens 10th Bundesbank Spring Conference on central banks and
globalisation (0700-0730 GMT).-
SATURDAY, MAY 24
JERUSALEM- Israel to host the Group of Thirty (G30) Spring
Meeting (to May 26). Attendeed include; ECB Governor Jean-Claude
Trichet and Bank of England Governor Mervyn King as well as the
central bank chiefs of India and China.-
FRIDAY, MAY 30
LUXEMBOURG- Luxembourg Prime Minister and Eurogroup chairman
Jean-Claude Juncker hosts the Luxembourg Financial Forum 2008.
Themes include: Financial markets: trapped in a global crisis?
Confidence and competence: the future of private banking.
Eurogroup: an assessment of the first 10 years with ECB Executive Board member
Juergen Stark (1300 GMT)-
SUNDAY, JUNE 1
FRANKFURT- 10th Anniversary of the founding of the European
Central Bank. Link: www.ecb.int-
CANNES, France- ECB Executive Board member Jose Manuel
Gonzalez-Paramo to give keynote speech at the Global ABS 2008
conference (to June 4). Link: http://secure.imn.org/-
MONDAY, JUNE 2
FRANKFURT- EuroGroup Finance Ministers meeting.-
TUESDAY, JUNE 3
PARIS- Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
(OECD) Forum 2008. 'Reform to Perform - Towards a more
prosperous, stable and sustainable future' and Climate Change,
Prosperity and Stability (to June 4). Speakers include European
Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet, WTO Director-General
Pascal Lamy, and OECD Secretary-General Angel Gurria-
LUXEMBOURG- EU Economic and Finance Ministers (ECOFIN) meeting.-
THURSDAY, JUNE 5
FRANKFURT- ECB Governing Council meeting, followed by interest
rate announcement 1145 GMT. News conference follows at 1230
GMT.-
FRIDAY, JUNE 6
FRANKFURT- ECB Executive Board member Juergen Stark addresses a
FORUM institute conference on "The subprime crisis: challenges
for monetary policy" (0715 GMT)-
LONDON- ECB Governing Council member Axel Weber speaks at
Financial Markets Group public lecture on "Financial Market
Stability"- 1700 GMT
TUESDAY, JUNE 10
HELSINKI- ECB Governing Council member Erkki Liikanen to speak
at a Bank of Finland quarterly event (0800 GMT).-
THURSDAY, JUNE 12
FRANKFURT- ECB publishes its monthly Bulletin - 0800 GMT
THURSDAY, JUNE 19
FRANKFURT- ECB Governing Council and General Council meeting. No
interest rate announcements scheduled. Any announcement about
other issues to be released at 1230 GMT.-
WEDNESDAY, JUNE 25
BRUSSELS- ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet testifies before the
European Parliament's Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs
(0930-1230 GMT).-
THURSDAY, JULY 3
FRANKFURT- ECB Governing Council meeting, followed by interest
rate announcement 1145 GMT. News conference follows at 1230
GMT.-
------Main (7-Day)-------- ----Long-term (90-Day)-----
Announce- Allot- Settle- Announce- Allot- Settle-
ment ment ment ment ment ment
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------April 01 02
07 08 09
14 15 16
21 22 23
28 29 30 29 30
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------May 02
05 06 07
12 13 14
19 20 21
26 27 28 27 28 29
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------June 02 03 04
09 10 11
16 17 18
23 24 25 24 25 26 30
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------July 01 02
07 08 09
14 15 16
21 22 23
28 29 30 29 30 31
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------August 04 05 06
11 12 13
18 19 20
25 26 27 26 27 28
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------September 01 02 03
08 09 10
15 16 17
22 23 24 23 24 25 29
30
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------October 01
06 07 08
13 14 15
20 21 22
27 28 29 28 29 30
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------November 03 04 05
10 11 12
17 18 19
24 25 26 25 26 27
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------December 01 02 03
08 09 10
15 16 17 16 17 18
19 22 23
29 30 30
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SOURCE: European Central Bank (ECB).
LINK: http://www.ecb.int/events/calendar/caleu/html/index.en.html
DIARY - European Central Bank (ECB) events to July 03
Reuters: [2008-05-06 14:33:00]
======================================================
This diary includes speeches and public appearances by members of the ECB's
Governing Council, which sets monetary policy for the 15-nation euro zone.
Refinancing tenders are listed at the bottom of this diary.
Some ECB events are also listed at http://www.ecb.int/events/html/index.en.html
All details of events are provisional, and inclusion of an event on this diary
does not necesarily mean Reuters will cover it.
For euro zone economic data, please double-click on:
<EUROLANDMAY> for indicators released this month or
<EUROLANDJUN> for indicators released next month
For other related diaries, please double-click on:
[CEN/DIARY] - Major central bank events for 2008
[M/DIARY] - Top economic events worldwide,
[IND/DIARY] - Index of all Reuters diaries.
[MI/DIARY] - Highlights of today's top events of interest
to money markets.
-----------------------------------------
TUESDAY, MAY 6
BRUSSELS- ECB Executive Board member Gertrude Tumpel-Gugerell
speaks at a High Level Evening Penal Discussion organised by the
Oesterreichische Nationalbank (OeNB) - 1730 GMT
WEDNESDAY, MAY 7
FRANKFURT- ECB Executive Board members Lorenzo Bini Smaghi and
Juergen Stark to present convergence report on euro adoption -0700 GMT
THURSDAY, MAY 8
ATHENS- ECB Governing Council meeting, followed by interest rate
announcement 1145 GMT. News conference follows at 1230 GMT.-
MONDAY, MAY 12
MILAN- Start of three-day forum "The Economy and The Open
Society". Keynote speech delivered by ECB President Jean-Claude
Trichet - 1430 GMT
TUESDAY, MAY 13
BRUSSELS- EuroGroup finance ministers meeting- 1600 GMT
PARIS- ECB Governing Council member Christian Noyer and
President of Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank Sandra Pianalto to
participate at the Global Interdependence Center meeting. Link:
http://www.interdependence.org/ - 1410 GMT
WEDNESDAY, MAY 14
BRUSSELS- EU Economic and Finance Ministers (ECOFIN) meeting -0700 GMT
THURSDAY, MAY 15
BRUSSELS- Brussels Economic Forum (to May 16) EU Economic and
Monetary Affairs Commissioner Joaquin Almunia (0930-1000), Dutch
finance minister Wouter Bos, Spain's economy minister Pedro
Solbes and Italy's finance minister Tommaso Padoa-Schioppa to
speak between 1000-1145 in various panels. IMF head Dominique
Strauss-Kahn speech at 1415-1440, Asian Development Bank's head
Haruhiko Kuroda, ECB Vice-President Lucas Papademos, U.S.
Treasury Undersecretary for internatioanl affairs David
McCormick and China central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan to
speak between 1440-1600.-
VIENNA- 40th Annual conference of the International Capital
Market Association (to May 16), featuring ECB President
Jean-Claude Trichet (1140 GMT) and ECB Governing Council Member
Yves Mersch (1300 GMT). lINK: http://www.icma-group.org/-
FRANKFURT- ECB publishes its monthly Bulletin - 0800 GMT
FRIDAY, MAY 16
BRUSSELS- Brussels Economic Forum (final day) ECB President
Jean-Claude Trichet to speak (0900 GMT), Portuguese finance
minister Fernando Teixeira dos Santos (0930), ECB Governing
Council member Erkki Liikanen (1100 GMT).-
LISBON- ECB Governing Council Member Vitor Constancio to speak
at a conference in Lisbon.-
WEDNESDAY, MAY 21
FRANKFURT- ECB Governing Council meeting. No interest rate
announcements scheduled. Any announcement about other issues to
be released at 1230 GMT.-
THURSDAY, MAY 22
ELTVILLE, Germany - ECB Governing Council member Axel Weber
opens 10th Bundesbank Spring Conference on central banks and
globalisation (0700-0730 GMT).-
SATURDAY, MAY 24
JERUSALEM- Israel to host the Group of Thirty (G30) Spring
Meeting (to May 26). Attendeed include; ECB Governor Jean-Claude
Trichet and Bank of England Governor Mervyn King as well as the
central bank chiefs of India and China.-
FRIDAY, MAY 30
LUXEMBOURG- Luxembourg Prime Minister and Eurogroup chairman
Jean-Claude Juncker hosts the Luxembourg Financial Forum 2008.
Themes include: Financial markets: trapped in a global crisis?
Confidence and competence: the future of private banking.
Eurogroup: an assessment of the first 10 years with ECB Executive Board member
Juergen Stark (1300 GMT)-
SUNDAY, JUNE 1
FRANKFURT- 10th Anniversary of the founding of the European
Central Bank. Link: www.ecb.int-
CANNES, France- ECB Executive Board member Jose Manuel
Gonzalez-Paramo to give keynote speech at the Global ABS 2008
conference (to June 4). Link: http://secure.imn.org/-
MONDAY, JUNE 2
FRANKFURT- EuroGroup Finance Ministers meeting.-
TUESDAY, JUNE 3
PARIS- Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
(OECD) Forum 2008. 'Reform to Perform - Towards a more
prosperous, stable and sustainable future' and Climate Change,
Prosperity and Stability (to June 4). Speakers include European
Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet, WTO Director-General
Pascal Lamy, and OECD Secretary-General Angel Gurria-
LUXEMBOURG- EU Economic and Finance Ministers (ECOFIN) meeting.-
THURSDAY, JUNE 5
FRANKFURT- ECB Governing Council meeting, followed by interest
rate announcement 1145 GMT. News conference follows at 1230
GMT.-
FRIDAY, JUNE 6
FRANKFURT- ECB Executive Board member Juergen Stark addresses a
FORUM institute conference on "The subprime crisis: challenges
for monetary policy" (0715 GMT)-
LONDON- ECB Governing Council member Axel Weber speaks at
Financial Markets Group public lecture on "Financial Market
Stability"- 1700 GMT
TUESDAY, JUNE 10
HELSINKI- ECB Governing Council member Erkki Liikanen to speak
at a Bank of Finland quarterly event (0800 GMT).-
THURSDAY, JUNE 12
FRANKFURT- ECB publishes its monthly Bulletin - 0800 GMT
THURSDAY, JUNE 19
FRANKFURT- ECB Governing Council and General Council meeting. No
interest rate announcements scheduled. Any announcement about
other issues to be released at 1230 GMT.-
WEDNESDAY, JUNE 25
BRUSSELS- ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet testifies before the
European Parliament's Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs
(0930-1230 GMT).-
THURSDAY, JULY 3
FRANKFURT- ECB Governing Council meeting, followed by interest
rate announcement 1145 GMT. News conference follows at 1230
GMT.-
Next: WRAPUP 2-More grim Spain data, slowdown shocks economists