RPT-POLL-Japan growth likely slowed to 0.6 pct in Jan-March

Reuters: [2008-05-16 00:00:00]

(Repeats May 9 story)

*What: Japan's January-March gross domestic product data

*When: 8:50 a.m., May 16 (2350 GMT, May 15)

*Growth forecast at 0.6 percent Q/Q vs 0.9 percent Q/Q in October-December

TOKYO, May 9 (Reuters) - Japanese economic growth likely slowed to 0.6 percent in the first quarter, a Reuters poll found on Friday, and analysts said the second quarter might bring a further slide in growth as a U.S. slowdown hits exports.

A weaker first-quarter expansion, at an annualised rate of 2.5 percent, would be due to a fall in capital spending, although relatively firm consumption and exports helped to keep the world's second-largest economy running above its potential.

"We will be able to confirm with the January-March data that economic activity remained firm at least until the first quarter, although the downside risk is high for the April-June quarter," said Yoshiki Shinke, a senior economist at Dai-Ichi Life Research Institute.

In January-March, corporate capital spending will likely log its first fall in three quarters, although housing investment is expected to have recovered somewhat from a slump caused by changes in building codes, which led to congestion in construction approvals last year.

"Capital investment in the manufacturing sector is likely to show a large decline in light of growing uncertainty in the outlook for the U.S. and European economies as well as falling profitability due to surging raw material costs," said Hideki Matsumura, senior economist at Japan Research Institute.

The relatively strong growth expected for Japan in the first quarter contrasts with that forecast for the United States, which has been suffering the fallout of the subprime mortgage debacle since last year.

The U.S. economy grew at an annual rate of 0.6 percent in the first quarter. Although that matched the preceding quarter and topped a forecast of 0.2 percent, many analysts say fears of a recession remain.

Shinke said Japan's exports have been stronger than expected as robust shipments of goods to emerging economies made up for lacklustre demand in the United States.

Although Japan's trade surplus in March marked the smallest year-on-year increase in three years partly due to a sharp rise in import bills as oil prices surged, exports in the financial year that ended on March 31 rose 9.9 percent, marking the sixth straight year of growth.

External demand is predicted to have boosted first-quarter growth by 0.5 percentage point, the Reuters poll of 36 analysts found.

The median forecast in the poll for GDP growth was unchanged from a smaller survey of 17 economists conducted last week. [ID:nT26424]

The analysts forecast private consumption, which accounts for more than half of economic activity, grew 0.6 percent in January-March, picking up from 0.2 percent in October-December and matching the biggest growth since the first quarter of 2007.

Many analysts said, however, that private consumption may be inflated as the data is not adjusted to account for the extra day in February in leap years.

Japan's economy grew a robust 0.9 percent, or an annualised 3.5 percent, in the October-December quarter, helped by firm exports and corporate capital investment.

Following are forecasts in percentages for preliminary GDP data for January-March, including the headline growth rate in price-adjusted real terms, private consumption and other components.

JAN-MAR GDP ANNUALISED CONSUMPTION HOUSING ---------------------------------------------------------------- Mitsubishi UFJ Sec 0.2 0.8 0.4 -0.1 UBS 0.4 1.6 0.3 0.0 Norinchukin Research 0.5 1.9 0.3 1.5 Daiwa SMBC 0.5 1.9 0.5 -3.8 Merrill Lynch 0.5 2.0 0.3 5.0 Japan Research 0.5 2.1 0.3 2.2 Mitsui Sumitomo AM 0.5 2.1 0.6 3.0 Deutsche Securities 0.5 2.1 0.5 5.6 Calyon 0.5 2.1 0.3 0.8 Mitsubishi UFJ Bank 0.5 2.1 0.7 2.2 JP Morgan 0.5 2.2 0.5 2.4 Mitsubishi Research 0.6 2.3 0.5 -0.9 Goldman Sachs 0.6 2.3 0.6 4.6 Barclays Capital 0.6 2.4 0.6 5.0 Daiwa SB Investments 0.6 2.5 0.6 -0.8 BNP Paribas 0.6 2.5 0.8 8.4 Mizuho Securities 0.6 2.5 n/a n/a

Lehman Brothers 0.6 2.5 2.4 14.8 BNP Paribas 0.6 2.5 0.8 8.4 Mitsubishi Securities 0.6 2.6 0.6 2.8 HSBC Securities 0.6 2.6 0.5 3.0 RBS 0.7 2.6 0.7 1.8 Daiwa Research 0.7 2.8 0.6 1.7 Credit Suisse 0.7 2.8 0.5 2.0 Nomura Securities 0.7 2.8 0.3 6.0 Nikko Citigroup 0.7 2.8 0.5 4.8 Informa Global Markets 0.7 2.9 0.6 5.0 ABN Amro 0.7 2.9 0.5 0.5 Dai-ichi Life Research 0.8 3.1 0.6 3.4 Shinkin Central Bank 0.8 3.1 0.5 4.6 Meiji-Yasuda 0.8 3.1 0.4 5.8 Morgan Stanley 0.8 3.2 0.6 3.9 Mizuho Research 0.8 3.3 0.7 6.4 Mitsubishi UFJ Research 0.8 3.4 0.6 0.8 NLI Research 0.9 3.8 0.6 4.4 Shinko Research 0.9 3.8 0.6 4.5 ---------------------------------------------------------------- Median 0.6 2.5 0.6 3.0 High 0.9 3.8 2.4 14.8 Low 0.2 0.8 0.3 -3.8

CAPEX EXTERNAL DEMAND* DEFLATOR --------------------------------------------------------------- Mitsubishi UFJ Sec -0.8 0.2 -1.4 UBS -0.9 0.4 -1.5 Norinchukin Research -0.8 0.5 -1.2 Daiwa SMBC -0.5 0.4 -1.5 Merrill Lynch -2.5 0.5 -2.1 Japan Research -2.2 0.7 -2.0 Mitsui Sumitomo AM -1.3 0.3 -1.2 Deutsche Securities 0.2 0.3 -0.7 Calyon 0.1 0.3 -1.2 Mitsubishi UFJ Bank -0.5 0.3 -1.4 JP Morgan -1.8 0.4 -0.5 Mitsubishi Research -1.0 0.4 -1.6 Goldman Sachs -0.8 0.4 -1.2 Barclays Capital -1.6 0.4 -0.5 Daiwa SB Investments -1.4 0.6 -1.7 BNP Paribas -2.1 0.5 -1.4 Mizuho Securities n/a n/a n/a Lehman Brothers -3.9 2.0 -1.6 BNP Paribas -2.1 0.5 -1.4 Mitsubishi UFJ Sec -1.4 0.5 -1.4 HSBC Securities -0.8 0.5 -1.4 RBS -1.5 0.4 -1.4 Daiwa Research -0.2 0.5 -1.5 Credit Suisse 0.0 0.5 -1.4 Nomura Securities -1.4 0.5 -1.2 Nikko Citigroup -1.0 0.4 -1.5 Informa Global Markets -1.1 0.4 -1.5 ABN Amro -1.2 0.5 -1.8 Dai-ichi Life Research -0.7 0.5 -1.5 Shinkin Central Bank -0.2 0.4 -1.4 Meiji-Yasuda -0.7 0.4 -1.6 Morgan Stanley -1.4 0.6 -1.5 Mizuho Research -1.0 0.4 -1.5 UFJ Research -1.5 0.6 -1.7 NLI Research 0.3 0.5 -1.6 Shinko Research -0.6 0.6 -1.5 --------------------------------------------------------------- Median -1.0 0.5 -1.5 High 0.3 2.0 -0.5 Low -3.9 0.2 -2.1

*percentage point of contribution to the overall growth rate. (Reporting by Shigeo Kodama, Akiko Takeda and Yuzo Saeki; Editing by Hugh Lawson) ((yuzo.saeki@thomsonreuters.com; +81 3 6441-1831; Reuters Messaging: yuzo.saeki.reuters.com@reuters.net)) Keywords: JAPAN ECONOMY/GDP POLL

U.S. West Coast - ANS gains on tighter supply

Reuters: [2008-05-15 23:58:00]

    HOUSTON, May 15 (Reuters) - Alaska North Slope crude <ASW-> 
gained on Thursday on tightening supply, traders said. 
    ANS finished in a bid-offer spread of $124.46/$124.56 a 
barrel. 
    California crude buyers cut offers between 10 cents and 30 
cents per barrel. 
    ANS last sold on May 2 when a 300,000-barrel cargo for July 
delivery traded at the calendar month average for the 
front-month NYMEX West Texas Intermediate contract, according 
to the buyer and seller. 
    ANS previously sold on Feb. 26 at even to WTI under the 
same terms. 
    Trade in ANS is limited as most producers either sell the 
oil under term contracts or take the crude into their own West 
Coast refining systems. 
 (Reporting by Erwin Seba; Editing by David Gregorio) 
 ((erwin.seba@reuters.com +1 713 210 8508; Reuters Messaging: 
erwin.seba.reuters.com@reuters.net)) 
Keywords: MARKETS CRUDE WESTCOAST 
    

*TOP NEWS* Front Page

Reuters: [2008-05-15 23:55:00]

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US STOCKS-Oil's fall, techs' gain drive stocks higher

Reuters: [2008-05-15 23:48:00]

(Updates close with Intel gains, oil shares' rise and CBS deal)

*Oil pullback eases inflation worries

*Microsoft shares jump as Icahn seeks Yahoo control

*Intel gains after price target increase

By Caroline Valetkevitch

NEW YORK, May 15 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks rose in light trading on Thursday, pushing the S&P 500 to its highest close since January, as a pullback in oil prices eased concerns about inflation and a battle to control Yahoo Inc <YHOO.O> helped the tech sector.

The Nasdaq also had its best close since Jan. 3. Shares of chip maker Intel Corp <INTC.O> jumped 4.7 percent after Lehman Brothers raised its price target on the stock, citing strength in notebooks and servers.

Crude oil futures fell to below $122 a barrel during the session, but shares of energy companies gained as investment bank UBS sharply raised its projection for oil prices. Shares of Exxon Mobil Corp <XOM.N> advanced 1.6 percent to $91.30.

News late in the session that key members of the U.S. Senate reached a deal on a housing rescue plan raised hopes for the beleaguered home market.

Financier Carl Icahn started a proxy battle to get control of Yahoo and force it to strike a deal with Microsoft Corp <MSFT.O>. Other deal news included CBS Corp's <CBS.N> plan to buy CNET Networks <CNET.O>.

"Tech is doing great ... That's very encouraging and the Nasdaq chart is the strongest one out there right now," said Joe Saluzzi, co-manager of trading at Themis Trading, in Chatham, New Jersey.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> shot up 94.28 points, or 0.73 percent, to end at 12,992.66. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> rose 14.91 points, or 1.06 percent, to 1,423.57. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> climbed 37.03 points, or 1.48 percent, to close at 2,533.73.

Trading volume continued to be very light on the New York Stock Exchange, with about 1.20 billion shares changing hands, well below last year's estimated daily average of roughly 1.90 billion. On Monday, NYSE volume hit its low for the year at 1.05 billion.

SOXX UP, CNET SOARS

Intel was up $1.13 at $24.97, while the Philadelphia Stock Exchange index of semiconductors <.SOXX> rose 2.1 percent.

June crude <CLM8> dipped 10 cents to settle at $124.12. Traders said a surprisingly large increase in U.S. natural gas inventories contributed to crude's fall. Earlier this week, U.S. crude hit an intraday record at $126.98 a barrel.

"Oil sold off, which was nice, even though it's still very high. That's part of what happened," said Todd Leone. head of listed trading at Cowen & Co. in New York.

In the sweeping housing rescue plan, the two largest U.S. housing finance companies, Fannie Mae <FNM.N> and Freddie Mac <FRE.N>, would backstop a government mortgage insurance fund, two industry sources told Reuters. Shares of home builders surged after the news. An index of home builders <.DJUSHB> rose 3.7 percent.

On the Nasdaq, Yahoo shares gained 2.3 percent to $27.75, while Microsoft rose 1.7 percent to $30.45.

When talks between Microsoft and Yahoo ended earlier this month, the software company was offering $33 a share for Yahoo, but the Internet company was holding out for $37.

Shares of CBS slid 2.4 percent to $24.23 on the NYSE, while shares of CNET surged 43.5 percent to $11.41. CNET was the Nasdaq's second-biggest percentage gainer.

JC PENNEY SHINES

Retailers benefitted after JC Penney Co Inc <JCP.N> said its earnings in the current quarter could top analysts' forecasts. The outlook drove JC Penney's battered stock up 4.7 percent to $46.32 even though it posted a 50 percent profit drop in the first quarter. For details, see [ID:nN15204424]

Data painted a mostly weak picture of the U.S. economy. A report showed softer-than-expected U.S. industrial output for April and a manufacturing report from the New York Federal Reserve Bank was also weak. Meanwhile, initial jobless claims rose slightly more than expected in the latest week.

Volume on Nasdaq was stronger than on the NYSE. About 2.22 billion shares traded, above last year's daily average of 2.17 billion.

Advancing stocks outnumbered declining ones by a ratio of about 7 to 3 on the NYSE and by 8 to 5 on Nasdaq. (Additional reporting by Jennifer Coogan, editing by Jan Paschal) ((caroline.valetkevitch@thomsonreuters.com; +1 646 223 6393; Reuters Messaging:caroline.valetkevitch.reuters.com@reuters.net))

((Multimedia versions of Reuters Top News are now available for: * 3000 Xtra: visit http://topnews.session.rservices.com * BridgeStation: view story .134 For more information on Top News: http://topnews.reuters.com)) Keywords: MARKETS STOCKS

TAKE A LOOK-Latest from the U.S. presidential campaign

Reuters: [2008-05-15 23:42:00]

    U.S. Democrats erupted in outrage after President George W. 
Bush, speaking to the Israeli parliament, suggested a pledge by 
the party's presidential front-runner Barack Obama to meet Iran's 
leader was akin to appeasement of Nazi Germany. 
    Obama responded by accusing Bush of engaging in "the politics 
of fear." 
    Hillary Clinton, Obama's rival for the Democratic presidential 
nomination, who has criticized his pledge to meet the Iranian 
leader, nonetheless came to his defense by criticizing Bush over 
the comparison. 
    Republican presidential contender John McCain said he believed 
the Iraq war can be won in four years and accused his Democratic 
rivals of promising a reckless pullout from a complicated 
situation. 
    The 600,000-strong United Steel Workers labor union endorses 
Obama, following former candidate John Edward's endorsement on 
Wednesday. 
    Double-click on the code in brackets to see the latest 
stories. If no story appears, click on the headline. 
    
  NEWS STORIES 
> Democrats outraged by Bush appeasement remark   [ID:nN15286023] 
> McCain: U.S. can win Iraq war by 2013           [ID:nN15189542] 
> Edwards backs Obama's White House bid           [ID:nN13447948] 
> U.S. Republicans scramble in wake of defeats    [ID:nN14542372] 
> Steelworkers Union backs Obama for White House  [ID:nN15288216] 
> McCain's wife urged to release tax returns      [ID:nN14546167] 
> Three former U.S. SEC chairmen endorse Obama    [ID:nN14485914] 
> Obama compares US housing crisis to Depression  [ID:nN13446999] 
> Pastor who backed McCain apologizes for remarks [ID:nN13435889] 
> McCain pledges to combat climate change         [ID:nN12322069] 
> US Democratic candidates play up "clean coal"   [ID:nN12317691] 
> Barr announces Libertarian U.S. presidential bid[ID:nN12390712] 
> Obama camp sees victory over Clinton soon       [ID:nN11550524] 
 
  POLLS 
> McCain runs strong despite low Bush ratings-poll[ID:nN12340098] 
> Gas prices hurt but tax holiday no solution     [ID:nN15510057] 
> Obama damaged by Wright flap-USA Today/Gallup   [ID:nN05368680] 
  
  ANALYSES/SIDEBARS 
> Hard for Clinton to give up while still winning [ID:nN13443564] 
> McCain urges UK-style sessions for US president [ID:nN15176157] 
> U.S. Democrats win Mississippi special election [ID:nN13446767] 
> Gas tax battle was a political gift to Obama    [ID:nN08383175] 
> Democrats divide by race, gender, class         [ID:nN07385836] 
> How Obama got his momentum back                  [ID:nN0728436] 
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> Republican evangelical support peaked-analyst   [ID:nN05414975] 
> As McCain targets center, can he hold the right?[ID:nN30323300] 
 
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> Reaction to Bush 'appeasement' remark           [ID:nN15292434] 
> Should president talk with foreign adversaries? [ID:nN15309170] 
> Edwards endorses Obama in Democratic race       [ID:nN14537562] 
> High-profile, uncommitted Democrats             [ID:nN14540512] 
> Results in West Virginia primary                [ID:nN07534801] 
> Why does Hillary Clinton keep running?          [ID:nN13441629] 
> Key dates in the U.S. presidential campaign     [ID:nN22326375] 
> Delegate counts for U.S. presidential candidates[ID:nN13406679] 
> Scenarios in U.S. political race                [ID:nN07526632] 
> Democrats split in support for Clinton, Obama   [ID:nN04297201] 
> Should a president talk with foreign enemies    [ID:nN15309170] 
> Reaction to Bush appeasement remark             [ID:nN15292434] 
> Clinton's proposals to lift gasoline tax        [ID:nN05383474] 
> Profiles of U.S. presidential hopefuls          [ID:nN22367925] 
> Which Democrat has won each U.S. primary/caucus [ID:nN05214328] 
> Presidential candidates on environment, energy  [ID:nN22312438] 
> U.S. presidential candidates on nuclear energy  [ID:nN06439370] 
> U.S. presidential candidates on gas prices      [ID:nN28496939] 
> U.S. presidential candidates on Iran            [ID:nN05376027] 
> U.S. presidential candidates on jobs data       [ID:nN02339078] 
> U.S. presidential candidates' economy plans     [ID:nN15477578] 
> U.S. presidential candidates' health plans      [ID:nN29375459] 
> U.S. presidential candidates on Iraq withdrawal [ID:nN11371782] 
> U.S. presidential candidates on energy issues   [ID:nN30518822] 
> U.S. presidential candidates' poverty proposals [ID:nN29215896] 
> U.S. presidential candidates on job losses      [ID:nN04327243] 
> U.S. presidential candidates and gun control    [ID:nN18624910] 
> U.S. ballot initiatives and the 2008 election   [ID:nN19361035] 
> U.S. presidential political terms               [ID:nN04464857] 
 
 (For more about the U.S. political campaign, visit Reuters "Tales 
from the Trail: 2008" online at 
http://blogs.reuters.com/trail08/) 
 ((Compiled by World Desk Americas; +1 202 898 8457)) 
Keywords: USA POLITICS/TAKEALOOK