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UPDATE 3-Thai Q1 growth slows, inflation risks mount
Reuters: [2008-05-26 12:43:00]
(Adds central bank comment on growth risk in paragraph 15)
By Kitiphong Thaichareon
BANGKOK, May 26 (Reuters) - Thailand's economic growth slowed
as expected in the first quarter to 1.4 percent, as inflation
dragged on growth, and analysts said high prices would keep
activity subdued in coming quarters.
The state economic planning agency left its full-year growth
forecast unchanged at 4.5-5.5 percent in a report on Monday, but
raised its inflation forecast to a 10-year high, underlining
global pressures from record high oil and food prices.
Analysts said they expected inflation to hamper consumption
and investment, but also to raise pressure on the Thai central
bank to raise interest rates.
Nuchjarin Panarode, an economist at Capital Nomura
Securities, said the National Economic and Social Development
Board's view on the economy remained positive.
"It is also interesting that they revised the inflation
forecast up to 5.3-5.8 percent, which suggests that with oil
prices at these levels a rate hike is inevitable," she said.
"I expect the central bank to raise rates in the second half
of this year."
The NESDB raised its 2008 inflation forecast from its
previous forecast in February of 3.2-3.7 percent.
Inflation of 5.3 percent would be the highest since 1998,
when it averaged 8.1 percent.
The agency said seasonally adjusted gross domestic product
rose 1.4 percent in the first quarter, slowing from 1.7 percent
in the fourth quarter and breaking four consecutive quarterly
increases in growth following a military coup in September 2006.
From the year-earlier quarter, growth picked up to 6.0
percent, broadly in line with expectations, from 5.7 percent in
the fourth quarter.
The NESDB raised its growth forecast for both exports and
imports for 2008. But it said imports would grow faster than
exports, so it downgraded its forecast for both the trade and
current account surpluses. [ID:nBAK000356]
Fuelling strong imports, oil shipments rose 68 percent in the
first quarter from a year earlier, triple the pace seen in
fourth-quarter data.
FARM OUTPUT EXPANDS
Thailand's agricultural growth quickened in the first quarter
from the fourth, the data showed. Manufacturing and services
slowed, while construction swung to a contraction.
A fall in government consumption deepened while household
consumption picked up. [ID:nBKT000668]
Fresh street protests over a government plan to amend the
constitution, which critics says is aimed at favouring former
Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, could drag on growth if they
distract the government from managing the economy, the central
bank said.
Growth this year is also threatened by an expected slowdown
in global economic activity sparked by a U.S. housing downturn
and credit crisis, analysts said.
That puts the focus on Thailand's consumers to drive growth
but rising prices and interest rates would undermine sentiment,
said Vishnu Varathan, economist at Forecast Pte.
The central bank has held interest rates steady at its last
seven policy reviews after five rate cuts in 2007.
It kept its main rate steady last week at 3.25 percent after
inflation jumped to a two-year high in April of 6.2 percent. But
it said it was ready to raise rates if inflation picked up.
To counter high oil and rice prices, Thailand's government
has vowed to pursue pro-growth policies. It has unveiled measures
to boost consumer spending and pledged to accelerate
multi-billion-dollar infrastructure projects.
"Inflation is something we have to worry about but it should
not cause alarm. The expected inflation figure needs not be
viewed as a major economic risk although it requires proper
management," NESDB chief Ampon Kittiampon told reporters.
The economy grew 4.8 percent in 2007, dropping from 5.1
percent in 2006. Private-sector economists polled by Reuters last
week forecast growth would rise to 5.2 percent in 2008.
OTHER STORIES
> More analysts comments........................[ID:nBKK106060]
> GDP breakdown and historical figures..........[ID:nBKT000668]
> Thai central bank holds rates, ready to tighten[ID:nBKK19451]
> New street protests hurt stability............[ID:nBKK174409]
> Asia stocks slide as inflation fears rise......[ID:nSP277486]
(Additional reporting by Trisanat Kongkhunthian; Writing by
Vithoon Amorn; Editing by Neil Fullick)
((; e-mail: bangkok.newsroom@reuters.com; Reuters Messaging
vithoon.amorn.reuters.com@reuters.net;+662 6489737))
Keywords: THAILAND ECONOMY/
SE Asian Stocks-Fall on worries over inflation, growth
Reuters: [2008-05-26 12:32:00]
By Tan Wei Xin
SINGAPORE, May 26 (Reuters) - Southeast Asian stock markets
fell on Monday, as fears over rising regional costs hit
financials and industrials such as Thailand's Siam Commercial
Bank <SCB.BK> and Singapore's Keppel Corp <KPLM.SI>.
Thai <.SETI> stocks slid 2.15 percent after the country's
first-quarter GDP growth was dragged down by inflation, while
Malaysia <.KLSE> slipped 0.11 percent and Philippine shares
<.PSI> closed 0.31 percent down.
Indonesia <.JKSE> was down 1.87 percent and Vietnamese <.VNI>
shares fell 1.76 percent, while Singapore's benchmark Straits
Times Index <.FTSTI> slipped 0.6 percent to its lowest level in
more than five weeks.
"Food and energy prices are soaring, which are pushing up CPI
inflation...this makes for a very challenging environment for
equity markets," Macquarie analysts said in a research report,
addiing that financial and consumer sectors would be hit hardest
by inflation.
"In terms of individual markets, we think the risks are more
than fully priced in the Philippines, broadly commensurate with
valuations in Thailand, but not yet fully priced in in
Indonesia."
In Singapore, conglomerates Keppel Corp <KPLM.SI> and
Sembcorp Industries <SCIL.SI> led losses after falling 2 and 2.1
percent respectively, as the country's manufacturing output fell
at its sharpest rate since records started in 1983.
The trade-dependent city-state's April output slumped 16.2
percent after seasonal adjustments from a month ago, as drugs and
tech output fell, providing fresh signs of slowing global demand
and raising fears over Singapore growth. [ID:nSIN181127]
Analysts said high prices would drag on activity in Thailand
in coming quarters. [ID:nBKK16020]
Thailand's third largest lender Siam Commercial Bank fell 4.1
percent and fourth-ranked <KBAN.BK> closed 1.7 percent lower.
State-controlled energy firm PTT <PTT.BK> fell 3.2 percent
and its unit PTT Exploration and Production (PTTEP) <PTTE.BK>
lost 3 percent, despite oil futures prices <CLc1> gaining around
a dollar to over $133 a barrel.
Oil refiner PTT Aromatics and Refining <PTTAR.BK> was down 5
percent while Thai Oil <TOP.BK> closed 7.4 percent lower after
the Thai Energy Ministry told refiners to cut margins in a bid to
ease the impact of rising diesel to consumers.
"Thai refiners could come under pressure from the combination
of higher oil prices and government policy," UBS said in a client
note. "We believe there is a risk that an overhang could develop
on the (PTT) stock if oil prices keep rising."
Indonesia's largest coal miner Bumi Resources <BUMI.JK> fell
6.3 percent after Merrill Lynch downgraded the firm to "sell"
from "buy", saying the firm's shares were trading 20 percent
above their fair value. [ID:nJAK265442]
Bumi raised its offer for Australian-listed Herald Resources
<HER.AX> to A$504 million ($483.7 million), trumping a rival bid
by a consortium formed by Indonesia's Aneka Tambang <ANTM.JK> and
China's ShenZhen Zhongjin Lingnan Nonfemet <000060.SZ>.
In Malaysia, planters Sime Darby <SIME.KL> fell 0.5 percent
while KL Kepong <KLKK.KL> ended 1.1 percent lower. Philippines'
top telecommunications firm PLDT <TEL.PS> led losses after
falling 1.1 percent and property firm Megaworld Corp <MEG.PS>
closed 2.9 percent lower.
Malaysia's largest lender Maybank <MBBM.KL> fell 1.3 percent
while third-largest lender Public Bank <PUBM.KL> lost 0.85
percent.
Vietnam's top dairy firm Vinamilk <VNM.HM> was down 1.8
percent and property developer Vincom <VIC.HM> ended 3.9 percent
down.
(Editing by Neil Chatterjee)
((weixin.tan@thomsonreuters.com; +65 6403 5667; Reuters
Messaging: weixin.tan.reuters.com@reuters.net))
For South East Asia Hot Stock reports, click;
[.SI] [.KL] [.BK]
FACTORS TO WATCH
*S'pore's April output in biggest slump since 1983 [nSIN181127]
*OCBC plans to sell S$1 bln in preference shares [nSGC002015]
*Malaysia palm up as rising oil supports vegoils [nKLR294814]
*Indonesia to offer $19 bln projects -president [nJKB000684]
*Indonesia's GDP growth seen at 6.5-6.9 pct in '09 [nJKB000682]
*Thai Q1 growth slows, inflation risks mount [nBKK16020]
*Philippine Q1 GDP to slow on weaker exports, consum[nMAN80918]
SOUTHEAST ASIAN STOCKS
Change on the day
Market Current Prev Close Pct Move
Singapore 3103.30 3122.15 -0.60
Bangkok 856.80 875.59 -2.15
Manila 2840.52 2849.28 -0.31
Jakarta 2419.73 2465.96 -1.87
Kuala Lumpur 1273.37 1274.78 -0.11
Ho Chi Minh 420.51 428.05 -1.76
Change on year
Market Current End prev yr Pct Move
Singapore 3103.30 3465.63 -10.45
Bangkok 856.80 858.10 -0.15
Manila 2840.52 3621.60 -21.57
Jakarta 2419.73 2745.83 -11.88
Kuala Lumpur 1273.37 1445.03 -11.88
Ho Chi Minh 420.51 927.02 -54.64
ASIA-PACIFIC STOCK MARKETS:
Pan-Asia........[STXNEWS/AS] Japan.......[.T] S.Korea...[.KS]
S.E. Asia.......[.SO] Hong Kong...[.HK] Taiwan....[.TW]
Australia/NZ....[.AX] India.......[.BO] China.....[.SS]
OTHER MARKETS:
Wall Street ....[.N] Gold .......[GOL/] Currency..[FRX/]
Eurostocks.....[.EU] Oil ........[O/R] JP bonds...[JP/]
ADR Report .....[ADR/] LME metals.[MET/L] US bonds.. [US/]
Stocks News US..[STXNEWS/US] Stocks News Europe [STXNEWS/EU]
DIARIES & DATA:
IPO diary & data <SG/IPOMENU> Asia earnings diary [ASIA/EQTY]
U.S. earnings diary [RESF/US] European diary [WEU/EQTY]
Singapore diary [SG/DIARY] Wall Street Week Ahead [.N/O]
Eurostocks Week Ahead [.EU/O]
TOP NEWS:
For top Asian company news, double click on: [nTOPEQA]
U.S. company news [TOP/EQU] European company news [TOP/EQE]
Forex news [TOP/FRX] Global Economy news [TOP/MACRO]
Banking news [TOP/FIN] Tech,Media,Telecoms [TOP/TMT]
Politics/General news [TOP/G] Asia Macro data <ASIATODAY>
A multimedia version of Reuters Top News is available at:
http://topnews.session.rservices.com
LIVE PRICES & DATA:
World Stocks <0#.INDEX> Currency rates <EFX=> <NFX=>
Dow Jones/NASDAQ <.DJI> <.IXIC> Nikkei <.N225>
FTSE 100 <.FTSE> Debt <0#USBMK=> <EURIBOR>
(Local currency) <SGD=> LME price overview <RING=>
Keywords: MARKETS SOUTHEASTASIA STOCKS/
New streets protests in Thailand hurt stability
Reuters: [2008-05-26 12:08:00]
By Nopporn Wong-Anan
BANGKOK, May 26 (Reuters) - Fresh street protests in Thailand between supporters of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra and his opponents could drag the army back into the forefront of politics and scare off foreign investors, analysts said.
Five months after a general election meant to return a deeply polarised nation back to democracy, about 5,000 opponents of the coalition government, which backs Thaksin, held a rally in the capital on Sunday.
About two dozen people were wounded in clashes between anti-Thaksin protesters and his supporters at the rally, which organisers said was a bid to stop the government from amending the 2007 army-designed constitution to benefit Thaksin.
"If it gets to be a prolonged violent confrontation in the streets that leads to loss of lives, that would be a customary pretext for a coup to restore peace," Thitinan Pongsudhirak, an analyst at Chulalongkorn University, said on Monday.
"At this rate, we may be heading in that direction," he said.
Protests against Thaksin two years ago had started small but grew to 100,000-strong crowds at their peak before the army launched a bloodless coup in September 2006. The putsch, the first in 15 years, unsettled the economy and foreign investors.
One of the reasons cited by the generals for the coup was to prevent bloodshed between rivals and supporters of Thaksin, who insist he is out of politics after returning from exile in February.
Army chief Anupong Paochinda, a 2006 coup leader who has said he will not stage another coup, warned on Monday that Thai police had to prevent the street protests from getting out of hand.
"The situation must not escalate or the country will be damaged," Anupong told reporters.
NERVOUS MARKETS
Organisers of Sunday's rally, the same group which led the street campaign against Thaksin, set up camp near Government House on Monday.
They vowed not to leave until members of the six-party ruling coalition withdrew a parliamentary motion to amend the post-coup charter, a move which would ensure that an investigative body probing alleged graft by Thaksin and his allies would continue.
Fears of renewed political strife hit investor sentiment, with Thailand's main stock index <.SETI> ending down just over 2 percent. The market was also unsettled by weak overseas bourses and high oil prices, analysts said.
"This is the instant fallout from the rally, which might put more pressure on the market in the next couple of days," Viriya Lappromrattana, an analyst at Kriatnakin Securities, said.
Bank of Thailand chief economist Amara Sripayak also warned that political roiling could hurt investor sentiment.
"It's not good that while the government is fixing the economy it has to worry about political issues. The uncertainty may prompt foreign investors to wait and see," she told reporters.
Thailand's economic growth slowed in the first quarter as inflation dragged on growth, the state planning agency said on Monday. [ID:nBKK16020].
But the agency left its full-year growth forecast unchanged at 4.5-5.5 percent, after the economy grew 4.8 percent in 2007. (Additional reporting by Panarat Thepgumpanat, Satawasin Staporncharnchai and Boontiwa Wichakul, Editing by Ed Davies and Valerie Lee) ((nopporn.wong-anan@reuters.com; +662 648 9739; Reuters Messaging:nopporn.wong-anan.reuters.com@reuters.net))
Keywords: THAILAND POLITICS/
Thai Hot Stocks - Steel makers, oil firms down
Reuters: [2008-05-26 11:21:00]
(Adds steel makers)
BANGKOK, March 26 (Reuters) - Thailand's benchmark stock
index <.SETI> was down 21.13 points, or 2.41 percent, at an
one-week low of 854.46 points at 0846 GMT on Monday.
Thai stocks fell as weak overseas markets, high oil prices
and political uncertainty at home weighed on investor sentiment,
analysts said.
Stocks on the move included:
STEEL MAKERS TUMBLE AFTER RECENT RISES
Shares in steel makers fell after hitting their highest
levels in more than one-year on Friday in the wake of positive
broker comments on the sector due to higher global steel prices
and demand.
By 0842 GMT, shares in top hot-rolled steel coil maker
Sahaviriya Steel Industries <SSI.BK> were down 6.82 percent at
1.23 baht, G Steel PCL <GSTE.BK> fell 4.07 percent lower to 1.65
baht and Nokornthai Stripe Meel <NSM.BK> slid 9.52 percent.
SOLARTRON <SOLA.BK>
The solar energy firm surged 18.2 percent to 2.86 baht,
having hit its highest since March 11 of 2.96 baht, after the
Energy Ministry said it would encourage households to use more
solar cells.
ENERGY SHARES <.SETEN> DOWN ON INFLATION FEARS
Oil firms dropped 2.6 percent as worries about the
inflationary impact of high oil prices, which topped $135 a
barrel last week, took centre stage, analysts said.
Shares in PTT PCL <PTT.BK> fell 3.2 percent to a 10-day low
of 360 baht, while PTT Exploration and Production <PTTE.BK>
dipped 3.5 percent to 193 baht.
REFINERS DOWN ON GOVERNMENT CALL FOR REFINERY MARGIN CUTS
Refiners were also hit after the Energy Ministry said it had
asked big refiners to cut refinery margins in a bid to ease the
impact of rising diesel prices to consumers.
Thai Oil <TOP.BK> fell 7.4 percent to 62.50 baht, having
dropped to its lowest since April 2007 of 62 baht, PTT Aromatics
and Refining <PTTAR.BK> fell 5.04 percent to 28.25 baht and
Bangchak <BCP.BK> was off 1.55 percent at 12.70 baht.
"If the policy is implemented, it will be negative to listed
refining companies and PTT, as a major shareholder," KGI
Securities analyst Sutthichai Kumworachai said.
- For the Thai press digest click on [ID:nBKK304799]
- For Thailand's IPO diary click on <TH/IPOMENU>
- For Thailand's stock exchange news click on [TH-SET]
- For Thailand corporate earnings: [TH-RES-RTRS]
- For Thailand economic forecast: [POLL-ECI-TH-RTRS]
($1=32.14 Baht)
(Reporting by Arada Therdthammakun; Editing by Ed Davies)
((arada.therdthammakun@reuters.com; +662 648 9732, Reuters
Messaging: arada.therdthammakun.reuters.com@reuters.net))
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* ASIA-PACIFIC STOCK MARKETS:
Pan-Asia........[STXNEWS/AS] Japan.......[.T] S.Korea...[.KS]
S.E. Asia.......[.SO] Hong Kong...[.HK] Taiwan....[.TW]
Australia/NZ....[.AX] India.......[.BO] China.....[.SS]
* OTHER MARKETS:
Wall Street ....[.N] Gold .......[GOL/] Currency..[FRX/]
Eurostocks.....[.EU] Oil ........[O/R] JP bonds...[JP/]
ADR Report .....[ADR/] LME metals.[MET/L] US bonds.. [US/]
Stocks News US..[STXNEWS/US] Stocks News Europe [STXNEWS/EU]
* DIARIES & DATA:
IPO diary & data <TH/IPOMENU> Asia earnings diary [ASIA/EQTY]
U.S. earnings diary [RESF/US] European diary [WEU/EQTY]
Thailand diary [TH/DIARY] Wall Street Week Ahead [.N/O]
Eurostocks Week Ahead [.EU/O]
* TOP NEWS:
For top Asian company news, double click on: [nTOPEQA]
U.S. company news [TOP/EQU] European company news [TOP/EQE]
Forex news [TOP/FRX] Global Economy news [TOP/MACRO]
Technology news [TOP/TECH] Telecoms news [TOP/TELCO]
Media news [TOP/MEDIA] Banking news [TOP/FIN]
Politics/General news [TOP/G] Asia Macro data <ASIATODAY>
A multimedia version of Reuters Top News is available at:
http://topnews.session.rservices.com
* LIVE PRICES & DATA:
World Stocks <0#.INDEX> Currency rates <EFX=> <NFX=>
Dow Jones/NASDAQ <.DJI> <.IXIC> Nikkei <.N225>
FTSE 100 <.FTSE> Debt <0#USBMK=> <EURIBOR>
Thai baht <THB=> LME price overview <RING=>
Keywords: MARKETS THAILAND/STOCKS
TABLE-Foreign trading in South Korean stocks
Reuters: [2008-05-26 09:51:00]
SEOUL, May 26 (Reuters) - Daily net trading in shares on
South Korea's main stock exchange <.KS11> by three major
categories of investor as of 0735 GMT, in billions of South
Korean won. A negative figure indicates net selling.
FOREIGNERS INSTITUTIONS RETAIL
May 26 -231.9 150.8 54.2
May 23 28.1 -275.0 176.6
May 22 -180.8 -265.0 402.0
May 21 139.1 -291.5 115.3
May 20 -198.9 -79.9 266.3
May 19 -57.0 -4.4 124.6
May 16 446.3 -235.8 -112.6
May 15 326.9 370.0 -716.0
May 14 -2.2 -119.1 130.6
May 13 52.9 60.7 -148.5
----------------------------------------------
Month to date 179.7 -776.3 359.2
----------------------------------------------
Year to date -13,560.5 7,100.9 1,576.4
----------------------------------------------
Source: The Korea Exchange
($1=1049.4 Won)
((Seoul newsroom; seoul.newsroom@reuters.com; +822 3704 5649))
Keywords: MARKETS KOREA STOCKS FOREIGN
Next: Seoul shares end down as techs decline