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US copper closes near 9-day low as stocks soar
Reuters: [2008-05-09 22:03:00]
NEW YORK, May 9 (Reuters) - U.S. copper futures finished sharply lower on Friday, sliding to a nine-day low after a surge in London Metal Exchange and weekly Shanghai Exchange warehouse stocks spooked investors, many of whom had already begun exiting positions this week, traders said.
NOTE: For detailed report, click on [MET/L].
* Copper for July delivery <HGN8> ended with losses of 7.10 cent at $3.7165 a lb on the COMEX metals division of the New York Mercantile Exchange.
* July futures slid to a 9-day low at $3.6775 a lb, leaving support at the May 1 low of $3.6675 a lb intact.
* London Metal Exchange copper warehouse stocks surged 11,150 tonnes on Friday to 121,275 tonnes. COMEX warehouse copper stocks stood even at 10,827 short tons on Thursday.
* Shanghai Futures Exchange copper inventories jumped 10 percent to 51,119 tonnes in the week to Thursday.
* Talk circulated the Shanghai market that South Korean LME warehouses would also soon see around 10,000 tonnes of copper deliveries from China.
* Analysts said much of the material causing the stock surge came from China, and is often followed by additional rises in copper stocks.
* Traders said Chinese buyers have been absent from the market of late.
* Some players were already in the process this week of unwinding long copper positions hastily taken out in Monday's unusual spike up to the $4.2605 a lb record high.
* A breach of July copper's March low at $3.6070 per lb would open up the downside to a much steeper decline.
* COMEX estimated final copper volume at 16,299 lots compared with Thursday's total volume of 14,749 lots.
* Open interest was down 783 lots at 98,360 contracts as of May 8.
* LME copper for delivery in three months <MCU3> finished Friday at $8,100 per tonne, down from $8,300 per tonne on Thursday.
(Reporting by Carole Vaporean; Editing by David Gregorio) ((carole.vaporean@reuters.com; 1-646-223-6044; Reuters Messaging: carole.vaporean.reuters.com@reuters.net; nyc.commods.newsroom@reuters.com))
For the latest news and prices, click on the codes in brackets:
LME overview <RING>
LME Warehouse stocks <LME/STX1>
Spot gold/silver <XAU=><XAG=>
COMEX copper futures <0#HG:>
COMEX metals warehouse stocks <CMWST>-<CMWSV>
N.Y. metals hourly volumes <IZQI>
Vols/open interest <MTXM>
RELATED NEWS AND OTHER TOPICS Precious metals news [GOL] All metals news [MTL] All commodities news [C] Metals diary [MTL/DIARY] Ldn Bullion Mkt Assoc <LBMA01> Foreign exchange rates <FX=S> Keywords: MARKETS COPPER/COMEX
US copper slides to 9-day low as inventories surge
Reuters: [2008-05-09 17:14:00]
NEW YORK, May 9 (Reuters) - U.S. copper futures tumbled to a 9-day low on Friday after a huge addition to London Metal Exchange warehouse stocks and a jump in weekly Shanghai Exchange inventories spooked many investors, traders said.
NOTE: For detailed report, click on [MET/L].
* Copper for July delivery <HGN8> slid 8.50 cents, or 2.24 percent, to $3.7025 a lb on the COMEX metals division of the New York Mercantile Exchange.
* July futures slid to a 9-day low at $3.69 a lb, but support at the $3.6675 a lb recent bottom remained intact.
* London Metal Exchange copper warehouse stocks surged 11,150 tonnes on Friday to 121,275 tonnes. COMEX warehouse copper stocks stood even at 10,827 short tons on Thursday.
* Shanghai Futures Exchange copper inventories jumped 10 percent to 51,119 tonnes in the week to Thursday.
* Talk circulated in Shanghai market that South Korean LME warehouses would also soon see around 10,000 tonnes of copper deliveries from China.
* Analysts said much of the material causing the stock surge came from China, and is often followed by more copper.
* Some players were in the process all week of unwinding long copper positions hastily taken out in Monday's unusual spike up to the $4.2605 a lb record high.
* A breach of July's March low at $3.6070 per lb would open up the downside to a much steeper decline. The low hit on May 1 at $3.6675 a lb serves as nearer support.
* COMEX estimated 9 a.m. EDT (1300 GMT) copper volume came to 6,331 lots compared with Wednesday's total volume of 15,066 lots.
* Open interest was down 291 lots at 99,143 contracts as of May 8.
* LME copper for delivery in three months <MCU3> slides to $8,180 per tonne after closing lower at $8,300 per tonne on Thursday.
(Reporting by Carole Vaporean, editing by Matthew Lewis) ((carole.vaporean@reuters.com; + 1 646-223-6044; Reuters Messaging: carole.vaporean.reuters.com@reuters.net; nyc.commods.newsroom@reuters.com))
For the latest news and prices, click on the codes in brackets:
LME overview <RING>
LME Warehouse stocks <LME/STX1>
Spot gold/silver <XAU=><XAG=>
COMEX copper futures <0#HG:>
COMEX metals warehouse stocks <CMWST>-<CMWSV>
N.Y. metals hourly volumes <IZQI>
Vols/open interest <MTXM>
RELATED NEWS AND OTHER TOPICS Precious metals news [GOL] All metals news [MTL] All commodities news [C] Metals diary [MTL/DIARY] Ldn Bullion Mkt Assoc <LBMA01> Foreign exchange rates <FX=S> Keywords: MARKETS COPPER/COMEX
POLL-India's March industrial output seen up 6.2 pct y/y
Reuters: [2008-05-09 14:56:00]
* What: India's March industrial output seen up 6.2 pct y/y
* When: About noon (0630G) on Monday, May 12
* Growth robust but well below double-digit levels seen early
in 2007.
NEW DELHI, May 9 (Reuters) - India's industrial output
<INIP=ECI> in March is forecast to have grown an annual 6.2
percent, slowing abruptly from the previous month as tight
monetary policy continues to hurt demand.
The median forecast for industrial growth in a Reuters poll
of 10 analysts showed output easing in March from February's
rebound of 8.6 percent, but remaining above January's upwardly
revised 5.8 percent.
Factory output growth has slowed from rates above 10 percent
in 2006 and the first half of 2007, although overall economic
growth is seen slightly above the central bank's forecast of 8.5
percent for the fiscal year that ended in March.
"Electricity is likely to be sluggish and manufacturing may
not show much improvement and then the base effect will come into
play as previous March was very strong," said Sumita Kale, an
economist at private economic think-tank Indicus Analytics.
Industrial production surged an annual 14.5 percent in March
2007.
The ABN Amro Bank purchasing manager's index (PMI) showed
Indian manufacturing activity grew at its slowest pace in eight
months in March, slipping from its peak in December as consumer
demand softened due to high interest rates.
The central bank raised interest rates five times in 10
months from June 2006, and tightened bank's reserve requirements
through last year to keep a lid on credit growth and inflation.
The Reserve Bank of India on April 29 kept all policy rates
unchanged, saying inflation risks persisted, while again hiking
the cash reserve ratio (CRR), this time by 25 basis points to
8.25 percent, its highest level in seven years.
The rise will take effect from May 24.
The unexpected increase in the CRR, the amount of funds banks
have to keep on deposit with the central bank, followed a
two-stage rise announced earlier in April to 8.0 percent.
India's economy is estimated to have grown by 8.7 percent in
the fiscal year ended March, and policymakers expect growth to
moderate further to around 8.0-8.5 percent in the current fiscal.
Industrial production accounts for about a fifth of GDP in
Asia's third-largest economy, and analysts said they expect
output to have grown around 9 percent in the fiscal year to
end-March 2008.
The following table shows forecasts for March industrial
output.
(Percentage change from a year earlier)
----------------------------------------------
RESPONDENTS FORECAST
----------------------------------------------
Bank of Baroda 9.0
Institute of Economic Growth 9.0
ICRA 8.8
Axis Bank 6.7
Indicus Analytics 6.4
ICICI Securities 5.9
Crisil 5.8
Kotak Mahindra Bank 5.8
Standard Chartered 5.4
Lehman Brothers 4.3
----------------------------------------------
Median 6.2
Average 6.7
Highest 9.0
Lowest 4.3
----------------------------------------------
(Reporting by Surojit Gupta and Rajkumar Ray; Editing by Mark
Williams)
((surojit.gupta@thomsonreuters.com; +91-11-4178-1016; Reuters
Messaging: surojit.gupta.reuters.com@reuters.net))
Keywords: INDIA ECONOMY/INDUSTRY
POLL-India's March industrial output seen up 6.2 pct y/y
Reuters: [2008-05-09 14:49:00]
* What: India's March industrial output seen up 6.2 pct y/y
* When: About noon (0630G) on Monday, May 12
* Growth robust but well below double-digit levels seen early
in 2007.
NEW DELHI, May 9 (Reuters) - India's industrial output
<INIP=ECI> in March is forecast to have grown an annual 6.2
percent, slowing abruptly from the previous month as tight
monetary policy continues to hurt demand.
The median forecast for industrial growth in a Reuters poll
of 10 analysts showed output easing in March from February's
rebound of 8.6 percent, but remaining above January's upwardly
revised 5.8 percent.
Factory output growth has slowed from rates above 10 percent
in 2006 and the first half of 2007, although overall economic
growth is seen slightly above the central bank's forecast of 8.5
percent for the fiscal year that ended in March.
"Electricity is likely to be sluggish and manufacturing may
not show much improvement and then the base effect will come into
play as previous March was very strong," said Sumita Kale, an
economist at private economic think-tank Indicus Analytics.
Industrial production surged an annual 14.5 percent in March
2007.
The ABN Amro Bank purchasing manager's index (PMI) showed
Indian manufacturing activity grew at its slowest pace in eight
months in March, slipping from its peak in December as consumer
demand softened due to high interest rates.
The central bank raised interest rates five times in 10
months from June 2006, and tightened bank's reserve requirements
through last year to keep a lid on credit growth and inflation.
The Reserve Bank of India on April 29 kept all policy rates
unchanged, saying inflation risks persisted, while again hiking
the cash reserve ratio (CRR), this time by 25 basis points to
8.25 percent, its highest level in seven years.
The rise will take effect from May 24.
The unexpected increase in the CRR, the amount of funds banks
have to keep on deposit with the central bank, followed a
two-stage rise announced earlier in April to 8.0 percent.
India's economy is estimated to have grown by 8.7 percent in
the fiscal year ended March, and policymakers expect growth to
moderate further to around 8.0-8.5 percent in the current fiscal.
Industrial production accounts for about a fifth of GDP in
Asia's third-largest economy, and analysts said they expect
output to have grown around 9 percent in the fiscal year to
end-March 2008.
The following table shows forecasts for March industrial
output.
(Percentage change from a year earlier)
----------------------------------------------
RESPONDENTS FORECAST
----------------------------------------------
Bank of Baroda 9.0
Institute of Economic Growth 9.0
ICRA 8.8
Axis Bank 6.7
Indicus Analytics 6.4
ICICI Securities 5.9
Crisil 5.8
Kotak Mahindra Bank 5.8
Standard Chartered 5.4
Lehman Brothers 4.3
----------------------------------------------
Median 6.2
Average 6.7
Highest 9.0
Lowest 4.3
----------------------------------------------
(Reporting by Surojit Gupta and Rajkumar Ray; Editing by Mark
Williams)
((surojit.gupta@thomsonreuters.com; +91-11-4178-1016; Reuters
Messaging: surojit.gupta.reuters.com@reuters.net))
Keywords: INDIA ECONOMY/INDUSTRY
UPDATE 2-India inflation at 3-yr high, fin min talks of steps
Reuters: [2008-05-09 12:20:00]
(Recasts with finmin comments)
By Surojit Gupta
NEW DELHI, May 9 (Reuters) - Indian annual inflation rose to a 3-½ year high of 7.61 percent in late April, prompting the finance minister to pledge that the government would take more action to tame prices if needed.
However, the finance minister, Palaniappan Chidambaram, said the fact that inflation had shown only a marginal increase in late April was a relief and not statistically significant.
Still, wholesale inflation, the country's most closely followed measure of price trends, has more than doubled since November as India, like other countries globally, saw its import bill for oil and food prices soar. Analysts said recent moves by the government and the central bank to boost supplies and curb inflation-stoking cash circulating in the banking system would pay off, but inflation would remain high for some time.
"The fiscal and trade measures taken by the government should start having an impact in the coming weeks. Particularly the cut in steel prices announced by steel producers should reflect in the index," said Sonal Varma, an economist with Lehman Brothers in Mumbai.
Steel firms agreed to trim prices on Wednesday, under pressure from the government.
"However, with oil prices still firm, we expect the WPI index to remain above 7 percent in the coming weeks," Varma said.
Government data showed on Friday the wholesale price index <INWPI=ECI> for the 12 months to April 26 rose at its fastest pace since Nov. 13, 2004, edging up from 7.57 percent in the previous week's data. The result was in line with expectations.
For a graph showing the quickening of India's inflation, click here:
http://int1.fp.sandpiper.net/reuters/editorial/images/20080509/ININFL0905.gif
Financial markets showed little reaction to the data. The yield on the 10-year federal bond <IN082418G=CC> held steady at 7.86 percent and the partially convertible rupee <INR=IN> at 41.38/39 per dollar, was unchanged from before the data's release.
MORE MEASURES POSSIBLE
The weekly data has seen some sharp upward revisions in recent weeks and the revision for the March 1 period was a jump to 6.21 percent from an initial reading of 5.11 percent.
Some economists see inflation creeping up to 8 percent in coming months.
But talking to reporters shortly after the data was published, Chidambaram said the small pick up in inflation revealed by the latest figures was not statistically significant.
"It has come as a big relief," he said.
Chidambaram said the government would take more measures if needed to calm prices. It has cut duties on some imports and banned some exports in recent weeks as part of its drive.
"We are in the process of persuading the cement companies to roll back prices. If that succeeds, that will also be an administrative step," he said, adding he expected inflation to moderate once the various measures kicked in.
The government faces a string of state polls this year and a national election by May 2009. Those prospects, plus rising prices -- especially of food and metals -- have dominated the media headlines in recent weeks.
The central bank has also stepped in to try to control price rises, although economists say there is a limit to what it can do, largely because inflation stems from supply constraints not domestic demand.
Last month, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) announced a 25-basis-point increase in the cash reserve ratio (CRR) to 8.25 percent, its highest level in seven years. [ID:nBOM95495]
"We expect the RBI to keep policy rates unchanged in 2008, but hike the CRR by at least 50 basis points to manage liquidity," Lehman's Varma said.
MORE STORIES: > Analyst comments on latest WPI................[ID:nDEL316222] > Latest figures a big relief-Finance Minister..[ID:nDEL001436] > Table of India's inflation figures............[ID:nDEL233394]
(Editing by Ranjit Gangadharan and Neil Fullick) ((rajkumar.ray@reuters.com; +91-11-4178-1006; Reuters Messaging: surojit.gupta.reuters.com@reuters.net)) Keywords: INDIA ECONOMY/INFLATION
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