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UPDATE 1-AccuWeather: 12 named storms this hurricane season

Reuters: [2008-05-12 21:02:00]

(Adds quotes, changes dateline from previous NEW YORK)

HOUSTON, May 12 (Reuters) - The 2008 Atlantic hurricane season will be near average in the number of storms, but there is a higher risk of a destructive storm hitting the U.S. East Coast, AccuWeather.com predicted on Monday.

Joe Bastardi, AccuWeather's chief long-range and hurricane forecaster, said in an updated forecast he expects a total of 12 named storms in the 2008 Atlantic hurricane season.

Two or three of the named storms would likely affect energy production areas in the Gulf of Mexico, which produces 25 percent of U.S. domestic crude oil and 15 percent of domestic natural gas, Bastardi said.

"Every three years there's usually one major storm in the Gulf," Bastardi said in an interview in Houston.

A weakening La Nina weather anomaly in the Pacific Ocean and near-normal or below-normal water temperatures in most of the tropical breeding grounds of the Atlantic Ocean off the African Coast "will reduce the overall number of storms," Bastardi said.

"However, with warm waters near the north Atlantic coastline, storms may form closer to the coast, resulting in a higher-than-average storm threat on the East Coast, from the Carolinas to New England," he said.

In April, he said the 2008 season would be slightly above average, seeing 12 to 13 named storms, with up to four becoming hurricanes and with the center of the target area the U.S. Southeast coastline.

The revised forecast is still above the average of 10 storms each hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30.

Two or three storms will bring at least tropical storm force winds to the coastline between Florida and New England, including one or two that bring hurricane force winds, and one major hurricane, Bastardi said in his latest forecast. (Reporting by Erwin Seba in Houston and Haitham Haddadin in New York; Editing by Christian Wiessner) ((erwin.seba@thomsonreuters.com; +1 713 210 8508; Reuters Messaging: erwin.seba.reuters.com@reuters.net)) Keywords: HURRICANE OUTLOOK/ACCUWEATHER

FACTBOX-Forecasts for 2008 Atlantic hurricane season

Reuters: [2008-05-12 20:32:00]

    May 12 (Reuters) - Forecasters are predicting that the 2008 
Atlantic hurricane season beginning June 1 and ending Nov. 30 will 
be more active than usual. After two quiet seasons that had also 
been widely and erroneously predicted to be busy, however, many 
experts are hedging their bets this year. 
    The following are the latest predictions for 2008: 
-------------------------------------------------------------- 
      Tropical Storms        Hurricanes       Major Hurricanes 
-------------------------------------------------------------- 
 NOAA        --              --               --              
 CSU         15              8                4 
 TSR         14.8            7.8              3.5 
 WSI         14              8                4 
 AccuWeather 12              --               -- 
 WRC         11              6                -- 
 UK Met      --              --               -- 
-------------------------------------------------------------- 
 
    NOAA forecast to be issued in third week of May or thereabouts 
    CSU (Colorado State University team led by William Gray and 
Philip Klotzbach) forecast issued April 9, update due June 3. 
    TSR (London-based Tropical Storm Risk) forecast issued April 7, 
update due June 5. 
    WSI Corp. forecast issued April 22. 
    AccuWeather forecast issued May 12. AccuWeather said 40 percent 
of the cyclones would bring storm- or hurricane- force winds to U.S. 
coast 
    WRC (Houston-based Weather Research Center) forecast issued 
March 7. Its forecast is based on solar cycles. 
    The UK Met Office, a newcomer to the field of hurricane season 
forecasting, has yet to issue a 2008 prediction 
 (Reporting by Michael Christie, Editing by Jim Loney and Marguerita 
Choy) 
 ((miami.newsroom@reuters.com; +1-305-810-2688; Reuters Messaging: 
michael.christie.reuters.com@reuters.net)) 
Keywords: STORM HURRICANES/FORECAST  
    

AccuWeather: 12 named storms in '08 hurricane season

Reuters: [2008-05-12 18:18:00]

NEW YORK, May 12 (Reuters) - The 2008 Caribbean hurricane season will be near average in the number of storms, but there is a higher risk of a destructive storm hitting the East Coast, AccuWeather.com predicted on Monday.

Joe Bastardi, AccuWeather's chief long-range and hurricane forecaster, said in an updated forecast he expects a total of 12 named storms in the 2008 Atlantic hurricane season.

In April, he said the 2008 season would be slightly above average, seeing 12 to 13 named storms, with up to four becoming hurricanes and with the center of the target area the U.S. Southeast coastline.

In his latest forecast, Bastardi said a high percentage of tropical storms would make landfall and that the major threat area is further north than normal.

A weakening La Nina weather anomaly and near-normal or below-normal water temperature in most of the tropical breeding grounds of the Caribbean and south Atlantic "will reduce the overall number of storms," Bastardi said in a release.

"However, with warm waters near the north Atlantic coastline, storms may form closer to the coast, resulting in a higher-than-average storm threat on the East Coast, from the Carolinas to New England," he added.

Bastardi believes at least 40 percent of the named storms will be of tropical or hurricane strength on the U.S. coastline. That is about 1.6 times the norm.

Two or three storms will bring at least tropical storm force winds to the coastline between Florida and New England, including one or two that bring hurricane force winds, and one major hurricane, Bastardi said in his latest forecast.

For the Gulf of Mexico, he forecast two or three storms would affect the energy infrastructure in and around the Gulf and bring at least tropical storm force winds to the Gulf Coast, including one or two that bring hurricane force winds.

Average hurricane seasons have 10 named storms. (Reporting by Haitham Haddadin; Editing by John Picinich)

((haitham.haddadin.@thomsonreuters.com; +1 646 223 6045; Reuters Messaging: haitham.haddadin.reuters.com@reuters.net)) Keywords: HURRICANE OUTLOOK/ACCUWEATHER

COMMODITIES-Oil at record above $124, corn hits new peak

Reuters: [2008-05-08 23:35:00]

    By K.T. Arasu 
    CHICAGO, May 8 (Reuters) - Oil soared to a record high 
above $124 a barrel on Thursday fueled by strong demand for 
diesel, while corn also peaked as delays in seeding the U.S. 
crop raised concerns over supply prospect. 
    Gold rose more than 1 percent as the dollar fell from 
two-month highs against the euro, while rice surged as Malaysia 
bought a large amount of the grain from Thailand and as cyclone 
hit Myanmar was likely to turn from exporter to importer. 
    Oil recouped early losses and surged to an all-time high of 
$124.61 a barrel in post-settlement electronic trading, lifted 
by strong demand for middle distillates, including diesel. 
    A recent strike at Britain's Grangemouth refinery and 
production problems at the Porvoo refinery diesel unit in 
Finland have thinned supplies. 
    Prices were down earlier as top oil exporter Saudi Arabia 
booked eight supertankers to carry 16 million barrels of crude 
to the United States in May and early June, the highest number 
of cargoes so far this year. [ID:nL08786951] 
    Oil prices have surged five-fold since 2002, as supply 
struggles to match growing demand in emerging economies such as 
China and India. Goldman Sachs this week forecast prices could 
rise to $200 a barrel in the next two years. 
    Oil <CLc1> was up 72 cents at $124.25 a barrel at 4:57 p.m. 
EDT (2057 GMT). 
    Corn futures at the Chicago Board of Trade rallied to 
record highs amid growing concerns over delays in seeding the 
crop in the United States due to rains and soggy fields. 
    The United States is the world's largest producer and 
exporter of corn, which is used primarily to produce animal 
feed but large amounts of which are now used to make ethanol. 
    CBOT May corn <CK8> rose to $6.21-3/4 a bushel, the highest 
for a spot month, before ending at $6.18-3/4, up 17-1/4 cents. 
The July 2009 contract <CN9> rose to $6.72-3/4, the all-time 
high for any CBOT contract. 
    The concerns over the pace of seeding neutralized bearish 
news from the U.S. Agriculture Department's report that pegged 
export sales of corn at 337,200 tonnes last week -- down 39 
percent from the previous week, 50 percent off the four-week 
average, and the lowest in the marketing year ending Aug. 31. 
    "Exports were rather anemic last week, especially for 
corn," said Roy Huckabay, analyst for The Linn Group. 
    Gold rose sharply as the dollar fell from two-month highs 
against the euro. 
    "The metal's short-term direction is still coming from the 
dollar. Given that oil prices are trading near record highs, 
inflation concerns are still very much in the forefront of the 
market," said Suki Cooper, metals analyst at Barclays Capital. 
    Gold has lost about 15 percent of its value since spiking 
to a lifetime high of $1,030.80 an ounce on March 17. 
    Gold <XAU=> rose as high as $885.25 an ounce and was at 
$880.50/$881.90 in New York at 4.48 p.m. EDT (2048 GMT), 
against $870.85/$872.05 late in New York on Wednesday 
    CBOT rice futures rose 3-1/2 percent amid strong demand 
from Malaysia, and it seemed likely that Myanmar would not be 
able to export rice this year -- at a time when concerns over 
supplies have sparked protests and riots. 
    "The rice market is dealing with some serious issues right 
now," said John Casey, analyst and rice trader for Founders 
Commodities, a Chicago trade house. 
    CBOT July rice <RRN8> rose the 75-cent daily trading limit 
to $22.35 per hundredweight. 
 (Editing by Marguerita Choy) 
 ((ktarasu@thomsonreuters.com; + 1 312 408 8749; Reuters 
Messaging kumarasamy.thennarasu.reuters.com@reuters.net)) 
   For the latest news and prices, click on the codes in 
brackets: 
    CBOT grains and oilseed futures 
    <0#W:> <0#C:> <0#S:> <0#SM:> <0#BO:> 
    COMEX gold futures <0#GC:> 
    COMEX copper futures <0#HG:> 
    CME livestock futures <0#LC:> <0#FC:> 
    CME lumber futures <0#LB:> 
    NYBOT softs, cotton and juice futures 
    <0#KC:> <0#SB:> <0#CC:> <0#CT:> <0#OJ:> 
    NYMEX crude oil <0#CL:> 
    Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index <.CRB> 
    NYBOT RJ/CRB futures <0#CR:> <0#CI:> 
    RELATED NEWS AND OTHER TOPICS All commodities news [C] 
    Energy markets news [O] 
    Precious metals news GOL All metals news [MTL] 
    All agriculture news GRO Grains news [GRA] 
    Livestock news LIV Softs news [SOF] 
    Foreign exchange rates [FX=S] 
    SNAPSHOTS of all commodity reports [SNAP/GOL] [SNAP/COF] 
    [SNAP/COT] 
    SPEED GUIDES COMMODS REUTERS 
Keywords: MARKETS COMMODITIES 
    

COMMODITIES-Oil breaks $122; corn at new record too

Reuters: [2008-05-06 23:29:00]

    By Barani Krishnan 
    NEW YORK, May 6 (Reuters) - The bull run in U.S. energy 
markets showed little signs of slowing on Tuesday, with crude, 
gasoline and heating oil all hitting record highs before ending 
off their peaks, fueling a rally in other commodities too. 
    U.S. corn futures hit new peaks as well, leading wheat to a 
higher close. [GRA/] Precious metals such as gold and silver 
rose but modestly. [GOL/] Copper bucked the trend with a lower 
close after Monday's record high in New York. [MET/L] 
    "I think oil is just pulling everything higher and because 
of that, all these commodities have turned around again," said 
Edward Meir, energy and metals analyst at commodities brokerage 
MF Global in New York. 
    Another positive factor was the dollar's weakening for a 
second straight day after being up in two previous sessions on 
speculation that the U.S. Federal Reserve may be ready to stop 
interest rate cuts which began in September. [USD/] 
    "The dollar was giving the bears some hope last week when 
it rallied. That seems to have stalled and we seem to be back 
to the original kind of trading strategy, which is go short the 
dollar and long the commodities," Meir said. 
    Crude <CLc1> on the New York Mercantile Exchange, or NYMEX, 
settled up $1.87 at $121.84 a barrel after touching a record 
$122.73, extending a rally that has doubled prices over the 
past year. [O/R] 
    Analysts attributed the run-up mainly to Iran's refusal to 
accept inspections of its nuclear program which the West fears 
could be linked to weapons. Iran is also the world's fourth 
largest oil exporter. [ID:nL05474341] 
    Nigerian disruptions from militant attacks and a strike 
have also underpinned prices since late April, along with the 
weaker dollar and growing demand from emerging markets like 
China and India. 
    The mounting supply problems and strong demand prompted 
Goldman Sachs to forecast oil could reach $200 a barrel within 
the next two years.[ID:nL06914488] 
    NYMEX heating oil for June ended up 4.70 cents, or 1.42 
percent, at $3.3535 after an intraday record of $3.3712. 
    RBOB gasoline for June, settled up 5.26 cents, or 1.72 
percent, at $3.1055 on NYMEX, after an all-time high of 
$3.1260. 
    U.S. corn surged 3 percent as the pace of seeding in the 
United States, the world's top producer and exporter of the 
grain used in feed and ethanol, was the slowest in a decade. 
    Spring rains across wide swaths of the Midwest grain belt, 
which is home to the bulk of corn grown in the United States, 
have delayed planting. As a rule of thumb, farmers need to seed 
the crop by May 15 to avoid yield loss. 
    Benchmark corn for May delivery <CK8> on the Chicago Board 
of Trade closed up 12-3/4 cents at $5.94-3/4 per bushel. The 
July <CN9> 2009 contract reached a record high of $6.60-3/4 per 
bushel during Tuesday's session before ending up 10 cents at 
$6.49. 
    CBOT wheat for May <WK8> closed up 13-1/2 cents at $8.06 
per bushel. 
    The Reuters-Jefferies CRB index <.CRB>, which tracks 19 
commodity futures, was up 1.13 percent at 418.54. 
 (Editing by Marguerita Choy) 
 ((barani.krishnan@thomsonreuters.com; +1 646 223 6192; Reuters 
Messaging: barani.krishnan.reuters.com@reuters.net)) 
    For the latest news and prices, click on the codes in 
brackets: 
    CBOT grains and oilseed futures 
    <0#W:> <0#C:> <0#S:> <0#SM:> <0#BO:> 
    COMEX gold futures <0#GC:> 
    COMEX copper futures <0#HG:> 
    CME livestock futures <0#LC:> <0#FC:> 
    CME lumber futures <0#LB:> 
    NYBOT softs, cotton and juice futures 
    <0#KC:> <0#SB:> <0#CC:> <0#CT:> <0#OJ:> 
    NYMEX crude oil <0#CL:> 
    Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index <.CRB> 
    NYBOT RJ/CRB futures <0#CR:> <0#CI:> 
    RELATED NEWS AND OTHER TOPICS All commodities news [C] 
    Energy markets news [O] 
    Precious metals news GOL All metals news [MTL] 
    All agriculture news GRO Grains news [GRA] 
    Livestock news LIV Softs news [SOF] 
    Foreign exchange rates [FX=S] 
    SNAPSHOTS of all commodity reports [SNAP/GOL] [SNAP/COF] 
    [SNAP/COT] 
    SPEED GUIDES COMMODS REUTERS 
Keywords: MARKETS COMMODITIES 
    

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