Amazon Stock Price Forecast - Morgan Stanley Issues $300 Price Target

Amazon Stock (NASDAQ:AMZN) Trading at $231 With Market Cap of $2.46 Trillion

Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) trades near $231.20, edging 0.37% higher intraday and holding just below its 52-week high of $242.52. The company commands a market capitalization of $2.46 trillion with a trailing P/E ratio of 35.24 and a forward P/E of 29.59, placing it at a premium but supported by accelerating earnings. Over the past twelve months, Amazon generated $670.04 billion in revenue, with $70.62 billion in net income and a profit margin of 10.54%. EPS of $6.56 reflects nearly 20% year-over-year growth, while quarterly sales rose 13.3% YoY, far ahead of broader retail benchmarks.

AWS and AI Infrastructure Remain Core to Profitability

Amazon Web Services continues to anchor margins, delivering the bulk of the company’s operating cash flow. AWS supported $121.14 billion in operating cash flow and $31.02 billion in levered free cash flow over the trailing twelve months. The cloud division remains the profit engine, positioned to capture AI infrastructure spending as enterprises expand workloads. Heavy investments in training clusters and data centers are weighing on near-term free cash flow, but analysts expect AWS margins to expand sharply into 2026. These dynamics underpin consensus targets of $263.18, with high-end projections stretching to $305 per share.

Retail Strengthens Despite Tariff Pressures

E-commerce resilience is evident as U.S. online spending accelerated 8% YoY in August, compared with 7% in July, lifting e-commerce penetration to 28.2% of total retail. Amazon captured much of this uptick, with North American retail sales expected to climb 10% in Q3 after 11% in Q2. Tariffs on imports from China, rather than slowing Amazon, have increased consumer reliance on its platform as shoppers use Prime for price comparisons and consolidated delivery. This advantage has offset cost pressures and added momentum to retail sales forecasts.

Zoox Robotaxi Launch Marks Strategic Expansion

The September launch of Zoox’s fully autonomous robotaxi fleet in Las Vegas positioned Amazon as the first operator of purpose-built driverless taxis. These vehicles, lacking steering wheels and pedals, move bidirectionally and are designed for efficiency in crowded urban environments. Analysts project Zoox could ultimately reduce last-mile delivery costs while creating optional consumer services integrated into Prime. The robotaxi market, valued at $1.7 billion in 2023, is forecast to expand to $450 billion by 2033, and Zoox provides Amazon a long-term optionality unmatched by traditional retail rivals.

Grocery Push Unlocks $600 Billion Market Opportunity

Morgan Stanley highlights the U.S. fresh grocery market at $600 billion in 2026, with Amazon aggressively targeting share gains. Fresh delivery already spans over 1,000 U.S. cities, with a target of 2,300 by year-end. Each 1% share capture could add 120 basis points to GMV growth. Cold-chain retrofits across fulfillment centers strengthen Amazon’s logistical edge. The $25 minimum basket size ensures positive gross profit per order, reinforcing profitability even in lower-margin grocery categories.

Financial Performance and Balance Sheet Strength

Amazon’s fundamentals show improving profitability. Return on equity stands at 24.77%, return on assets at 7.7%, with gross profit of $332.38 billion. The balance sheet holds $93.18 billion in cash against $159.57 billion in debt, yielding a debt-to-equity ratio of 47.81%. EPS surprises have consistently beaten expectations — Q2 EPS at $1.68 exceeded forecasts of $1.33, a 26% beat. Analysts forecast full-year EPS of $6.59 in 2025 and $7.54 in 2026, projecting double-digit growth ahead.

Technical Picture: $240 Resistance in Focus

Shares of AMZN are testing the critical $240 resistance zone, where rallies stalled in both February and July. Failure to clear $240 risks forming a triple-top pattern, potentially pulling shares back to $229 support or even $210. A breakout above $240 with strong trading volume would invalidate the bearish formation and open upside toward $262–$280, aligning with consensus targets. Amazon’s 50-day moving average sits at $226.41, while the 200-day average is at $213.69, reinforcing technical support levels.

Insider Transactions and Institutional Positioning

Jeff Bezos has continued to reduce holdings, contributing to investor caution. Insider ownership stands at 8.44%, while institutions hold 66.31% of the float. Short interest remains muted at 0.71% of float, signaling limited bearish conviction. Detailed insider transaction records are available here. With over 10.66 billion shares outstanding, Amazon remains one of the most widely held equities globally, with ETF and mutual fund flows playing a large role in daily liquidity.

Competitive Landscape and External Risks

Competition from Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) and Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL) in cloud services, from Alibaba (NYSE:BABA) and PDD Holdings (NASDAQ:PDD) in e-commerce, and from Waymo and Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) in autonomous vehicles continues to pressure Amazon. Regulatory scrutiny in the U.S. and EU remains a risk, particularly around advertising and logistics dominance. Tariff volatility and labor issues could weigh on margins. However, diversification into AI, advertising, streaming, and autonomous logistics gives Amazon a resilience edge unmatched by peers.

Verdict on NASDAQ:AMZN

Amazon’s stock at $231 reflects investor hesitation ahead of resistance, yet fundamentals remain compelling. AWS profitability, grocery market expansion, Zoox optionality, and consistent EPS beats support a bullish long-term view. With consensus targets at $263 and upside potential to $300, AMZN offers investors growth at a premium valuation justified by scale and execution. NASDAQ:AMZN is a Buy, with near-term volatility around $240 resistance but strong long-term upside as cloud, AI, and logistics converge into higher-margin growth engines.

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