Bitcoin (BTC-USD) Poised to Break $112K as Institutional Surge Drives Q3 Momentum

BITCOIN (BTC-USD) PRIMED FOR RECORD BREAKOUT AS LIQUIDITY SURGES AND INSTITUTIONAL INFLOWS ACCELERATE

BTC-USD Coils Near $108K With Liquidity Clustered Around Key Levels

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) is hovering near $107,600 after a weekly rally of +7.32%, concluding a powerful 30% gain in Q2 2025, its strongest second quarter since 2020. Despite brief dips toward $100,000, bulls have aggressively defended support around $104,000, as visible in CoinGlass heatmaps. Current price action reflects consolidation within a tightly packed range between $106,500 and $108,500, with $109,000 to $112,000 emerging as a high-stakes breakout zone.

All-Time Highs Within Reach: Technical Barriers and Bullish Patterns

BTC has repeatedly tested liquidity between $108,000 and $109,500, where more than $47.6 million in resting orders are visible. Analysts including Mags and Jelle highlight an inverted head-and-shoulders pattern with a neckline at $112,000—a break of which could launch BTC into price discovery, eyeing $120,000 next. Meanwhile, RSI sits at 56, MACD remains bullish, and the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) shows increasing capital inflow.

ETF Inflows Hit $2.22B as Institutions Reassert Dominance

Institutional buying is resurging. US-listed spot BTC ETFs recorded $2.22 billion in inflows last week, the highest weekly inflow since May. BlackRock’s IBIT alone holds over $57 billion in assets, while overall ETF trading volume nears $1 trillion. UTXO Management projects an additional $120 billion in institutional inflows this year, potentially soaking up 4 million BTC, adding to the supply squeeze.

Corporate Treasury Moves: Metaplanet and MicroStrategy Expand Holdings

Japan’s Metaplanet added 1,005 BTC this week, raising its total to 13,350 BTC, funded in part by a $208 million 0% bond issuance to enhance long-term BTC accumulation. MicroStrategy, already holding over 214,400 BTC, remains inactive on sales despite the recent 40% price surge. Miner behavior also reflects accumulation: daily outflows have dropped from 23K BTC in February to just 6K BTC today, according to CryptoQuant.

On-Chain Metrics Show Mixed Sentiment, But Institutional Confidence Outweighs Retail Caution

While CMF, RSI, and MACD suggest upside, CryptoQuant data signals that demand from new wallets is lagging behind supply. This could create temporary friction for spot prices. However, with over 2 million addresses buying BTC between $104,429 and $107,637, the on-chain support appears robust. Analyst Ray Youssef notes that the recent rebound is more of a “market exhale,” marking technical recovery following geopolitical volatility.

Historical Patterns Suggest Strong July Performance

July tends to favor bulls. Bitcoin has historically averaged a +7.56% return in July, and with easing geopolitical tensions, ETF-driven demand, and reduced miner selling, the setup aligns with bullish seasonality. BTC has already reclaimed $108,000; a firm close above $109,000 could flip resistance into support.

Price Action Dynamics: Flags, Triangles, and Bullish Reversals

Multiple chart patterns are converging on bullish continuation. On the 4-hour timeframe, BTC shows a bull flag formed after a sharp move from $96,968 to $107,699. On the daily, BTC is forming an ascending triangle, with higher lows pushing toward resistance at $112,062. If price clears this upper boundary, analysts expect an explosive move toward $120,000 or beyond.

Retail Hesitation vs. Institutional Control: Structural Shift Underway

Retail interest appears muted, as the Fear & Greed Index hovers at 66, reflecting cautious optimism. However, institutions, ETFs, sovereign entities, and large corporate buyers now hold over 30% of circulating BTC, marking a structural transformation in BTC’s ownership profile. This divergence may explain the reduced volatility despite major technical inflection points.

Mining Sector Holds Strong: WGMI ETF and Miner Outflows

The WGMI Bitcoin Miners ETF surged 18% MoM, reflecting investor approval of miners’ reduced selling. Outflows from miners have fallen sharply, and Satoshi-era wallets remain quiet, selling only 150 BTC YTD vs. nearly 10,000 BTC in 2024. This signals a broader shift in miner strategy—holding rather than distributing—despite halving-induced pressure on mining profitability.

Key Zones to Watch: Resistance at $109K–$112K, Support at $104K, Psychological Floor at $100K

• Resistance: $109,500 (liquidity), $112,000 (pattern neckline), $111,980 (ATH)

• Support: $104,126 (50-day EMA), $100,000 (long-term psychological level)

• Volatility Clusters: $103,500 (downside magnet), $109,700 (upside magnet)

Momentum or Stall? Bitcoin's Trajectory Hinges on Breakout Execution

With capital rotating back into equities and macro risks cooling, BTC remains one of the few assets that has not fully participated in the broader risk-on rally. That could be about to change. If Bitcoin can close a weekly candle above $109,000, analysts agree that price discovery will resume, and a push to $120,000 may occur faster than many expect. The question now is whether BTC can overcome resistance in a single push—or whether another accumulation cycle is needed.

Verdict: BTC-USD – BUY (Technical breakout imminent if $109K flips; institutional flows support high conviction bullish outlook)

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