Bitcoin (BTC-USD) Slides to $109,700 as Spot ETFs Shed $903M and Miner Reserves Decline

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) ETF Flows Signal Institutional Sentiment Shift

Bitcoin’s September trading narrative has been dominated by ETF fund movements, with inflows and outflows directly shaping price action around the $109,700–$111,900 range. According to SoSoValue data, U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs saw $903 million in net outflows last week, the steepest withdrawal in months. The retreat contrasts sharply with July, when inflows above $5 billion pushed BTC toward $120,000, underscoring how sensitive the asset remains to institutional allocations.

BlackRock’s IBIT Stands Out as Capital Magnet While Fidelity Stumbles

Not all issuers shared the same fate. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) attracted $174 million in inflows, lifting its cumulative net intake to $60.82 billion, making it the dominant player among Bitcoin ETFs. In stark contrast, Fidelity’s FBTC logged $738 million in outflows, reducing its cumulative figure to $11.92 billion. The divergence illustrates investor preference for the deepest-liquidity product, and it reaffirms BlackRock’s role as the institutional gateway for Bitcoin exposure.

Total ETF Market Size Reaches $143.56 Billion, 6.59% of BTC Market Cap

The total net asset value of Bitcoin spot ETFs now sits at $143.56 billion, equal to 6.59% of Bitcoin’s entire $2.17 trillion market cap. Since approval, cumulative inflows across all spot Bitcoin ETFs have reached $56.81 billion, but the recent outflow streak highlights fragility. Traders are increasingly asking whether institutional allocations have peaked for the year or if capital will rotate back in after Q3 rebalancing.

Impact on Bitcoin Price: Weakness Toward $107,557 vs Rebound Above $111,961

Price action has mirrored ETF fund flows. BTC slipped from the $115,000 level on September 22 to close the week below $110,000, with technical models pointing to potential declines toward $107,557 if outflows persist. Conversely, should inflows stabilize, resistance lies at $111,961, a level bulls must reclaim to prevent deeper consolidation. The tight correlation between ETF activity and price underscores why traders monitor daily fund flows as closely as on-chain metrics.

Miner Reserve Data Adds to Bearish Pressures

On-chain data from CryptoQuant revealed a 0.24% decline in miner reserves since September 9, with total balances now at 1.8 million BTC. The selling by miners adds fresh supply to an already pressured market. Typically, falling reserves are seen as a bearish signal, suggesting that operational expenses or profit-taking are driving miners to liquidate. This compounds the bearish undertone set by ETF redemptions.

Historical Context: July’s $120K Rally vs September’s Retreat

The shift from July inflows to September outflows demonstrates how ETFs have become the primary lever of institutional Bitcoin exposure. In July, over $5 billion in monthly net inflows helped push BTC toward $120,000, its yearly peak. The reversal in September, with nearly $1 billion exiting ETFs in a single week, shows that large investors are treating ETFs as a trading vehicle, rather than passive buy-and-hold exposure. This dynamic is central to understanding why price failed to hold above $115,000.

Investor Positioning: BlackRock’s Strength vs ARK’s Struggles

Beyond BlackRock and Fidelity, ARK Invest and 21Shares’ ARKB ETF also struggled, seeing $123 million in outflows, bringing its cumulative inflows to just $2.1 billion. This gap underscores concentration risk: nearly all institutional confidence appears clustered around IBIT, with secondary ETFs struggling to attract consistent flows. For traders, it means that tracking IBIT’s daily intake has become a proxy for Bitcoin’s institutional sentiment.

Forward Outlook: Institutional Reallocation or Continued Risk-Off?

With Q4 earnings season and U.S. macro data looming, ETF allocations may remain volatile. If institutional portfolios re-risk into Bitcoin ETFs, capital could swing back, supporting a test of $115,000 and reopening the path toward $120,000. On the downside, further redemptions combined with miner selling could accelerate declines, with $107,500 the key technical floor.

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