Bitcoin BTC-USD Surges Above $117K as Bitcoin ETF Inflows Top $430M and Metaplanet Accumulates 5,268 BTC

Bitcoin ETF Inflows Drive a $430M Reversal and Push BTC Toward $118K

The Bitcoin (BTC-USD) market has regained momentum after two sessions of powerful spot Bitcoin ETF inflows that totaled more than $950 million. On September 30 alone, net inflows reached $430 million, flipping sentiment after a week of steady outflows. BlackRock’s IBIT ETF absorbed $199.4 million, Ark’s ARKB pulled in $105.7 million, and Fidelity’s FBTC added $54.7 million. Trading activity surged with ETF turnover crossing $3.26 billion, confirming that institutions are once again the price-setters in this cycle. No ETF reported outflows, a sign of broad market conviction.

BTC Price Reclaims $117,000 as Technical Barriers Shift Higher

Bitcoin traded at $117,434 (+2.7%), clearing the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at $112,591 and recovering above the pivot at $113,877. Momentum indicators show stabilization: the RSI sits at 52.5 in neutral territory, while the MACD histogram at –86.97 still signals lingering bearish overhang but narrowing downside risk. Traders are now focused on resistance at $117,912, the September swing high, with breakout targets at $124,488 aligned with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension. On the downside, the 100-day EMA at $111,830 provides immediate support, while the CME gap near $112K could invite corrective pullbacks before the next leg higher.

Metaplanet Expands to 30,823 BTC, Worth $3.33 Billion

Corporate accumulation remains a parallel driver alongside ETF inflows. Japanese firm Metaplanet disclosed the purchase of 5,268 BTC, worth approximately $615 million, funded via preferred shares. This lifted its total holdings to 30,823 BTC ($3.33B), securing its rank as the fourth-largest corporate Bitcoin holder worldwide. The buy follows Strategy’s $22.1 million September allocation, underlining how public firms continue to treat Bitcoin as both a treasury hedge and growth asset. Metaplanet’s 115.7% YoY revenue growth in Q3 provided the financial firepower to scale its Bitcoin reserves without diluting shareholders — a critical detail that strengthens the credibility of its balance sheet strategy.

U.S. Shutdown Sparks Safe-Haven Demand for Bitcoin ETFs

The political crisis in Washington amplified inflows. With the October 1 U.S. government shutdown furloughing 750,000 federal workers, Bitcoin attracted safe-haven demand similar to gold, which touched an all-time high above $3,830 per ounce. Investors rotated into Bitcoin ETFs as a hedge against fiscal dysfunction, highlighting BTC’s evolving role as a non-sovereign store of value. BlackRock’s IBIT ETF now controls $77 billion worth of Bitcoin, a scale that cements ETFs as a new liquidity lever in crypto markets.

Institutional Positioning Versus Retail Weakness

While ETF-driven institutional flows dominate the headlines, retail demand remains tepid. CoinGlass data showed Bitcoin open interest holding stable but not accelerating in the way it did during the August rally to the $124,474 all-time high. This divergence suggests that while ETFs and corporates provide structural demand, sustained breakouts toward $125K and beyond may require retail participation to rejoin.

Seasonality and the “Uptober” Effect Back Bullish Outlook

Historical performance data bolsters the bullish case. Bitcoin has closed higher in 10 of the past 12 Octobers, with average returns of +29.9%. Analysts point to the September close of +5.35%, which historically precedes stronger fourth-quarter rallies. On-chain metrics reinforce the narrative: the MVRV ratio stands near 1.8, but seasonal trends push it toward 2.0 by year-end, a level associated with stronger demand and higher profitability for investors.

Technical Path: Base at $111K, Ceiling Near $124K

Technically, the Elliott Wave structure suggests BTC has completed its corrective phase and is now in an impulsive wave higher. Support around $106K–$112K remains the foundation zone, while overhead resistance layers at $118K and $124K represent key liquidity clusters. A break above $124K could open the path toward $138K–$150K, but only if ETF inflows maintain momentum and corporate buyers continue to add aggressively.

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