Bitcoin ETF Inflows & IBIT ETF Forecast: $55 Billion Survived a 48% BTC Crash — Iran Strikes Test Diamond Hands at $60,000

Bitcoin ETF Inflows & IBIT (NASDAQ:IBIT) Forecast: $55 Billion in Cumulative Inflows Survived a 48% BTC Crash — Only $6.5 Billion Left Since October, $507 Million Poured In on a Single Day This Week, Iran Strikes Now Test Whether Diamond Hands Hold at $60,000

Saturday, February 28, 2026 | TradingNews.com

iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (NASDAQ:IBIT) closed Friday at $37.19, down $1.07 or 2.80%, with after-hours trading recovering slightly to $37.38. The 52-week range tells the entire story of what has happened to institutional Bitcoin exposure over the past year: $35.30 on the low end, $71.82 on the high — a 51% peak-to-trough collapse in the most heavily traded crypto ETF on the planet. Average daily volume of 77.68 million shares makes IBIT one of the most liquid instruments on the Nasdaq, and the total net asset value of the combined spot Bitcoin ETF category stands at $83.40 billion. But Friday was not a good day for the flagship fund. BlackRock's IBIT recorded a $32.71 million outflow that single-handedly pushed the entire spot Bitcoin ETF category into the red — $27.55 million in net outflows across the board — snapping what had been a three-day inflow streak that pulled in over $1 billion.

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) itself trades near $66,295, up modestly intraday but buried 48.2% below its October 6, 2025, all-time high. The crypto market Fear and Greed Index reads 11 — deep into extreme fear territory, down from 13 yesterday and 9 a week ago. And then Saturday happened: the United States and Israel launched coordinated military strikes against Iran, Iran retaliated with missiles on four Gulf states, the Strait of Hormuz reportedly closed, and every risk asset on earth faces a Monday repricing that was not in anyone's model 48 hours ago.

The $55 Billion Number That Matters More Than the $6.5 Billion Everyone Fixates On

Since spot Bitcoin ETFs launched in January 2024, cumulative net inflows have reached approximately $55 billion. That number represents real money — new capital flowing into regulated vehicles from institutional allocators, registered investment advisors, family offices, and retail accounts that wanted crypto exposure without the complexity of self-custody or unregulated exchanges. Since the October 10 market crash that sent BTC-USD into its current 48% drawdown, approximately $6.5 billion has left. The outflows represent 11.8% of cumulative inflows — meaning 88.2% of every dollar that entered spot Bitcoin ETFs over two years remains invested despite the largest drawdown since the 2022 FTX collapse.

The $6.5 billion in outflows since October has been the focus of most coverage, but the retention rate is the more important signal. The holdings across all spot BTC ETFs are down only approximately 6% despite a 48% price decline. That means the overwhelming majority of ETF holders did not sell into the crash. They absorbed a 48% drawdown — roughly $600 billion in aggregate market cap destruction — and held. That behavior is not characteristic of speculative capital. It is characteristic of institutional allocation with multi-year time horizons and mandated rebalancing rules that prevent panic selling.

The Three-Day $1 Billion Inflow Streak — And Why Friday's $27.55 Million Outflow Does Not Negate It

Before Friday's reversal, spot Bitcoin ETFs had recorded three consecutive days of inflows totaling more than $1 billion. Wednesday alone saw $507 million flow in, led by BlackRock's IBIT, which has been the dominant vehicle in both inflow and outflow sessions. The three-day streak was the strongest week of accumulation since mid-January and suggested that institutional appetite was returning even as BTC-USD traded below $70,000.

Friday's $27.55 million net outflow was modest in context. The entire reversal was driven by a single $32.71 million exit from IBIT. Invesco's BTCO partially offset the damage with $3.27 million in inflows, and Franklin's EZBC added $1.9 million. Total trading volume across the category hit $2.57 billion — healthy liquidity that confirms the market is actively positioning, not abandoning crypto exposure. The three-day inflow of $1 billion versus Friday's $27.55 million outflow is a 36:1 ratio. Calling the streak "broken" because of a $27 million giveback after a $1 billion accumulation wave misreads the flow dynamics entirely.

IBIT (NASDAQ:IBIT) — The Dominant Force at $37.19 With $165 Billion in Market Cap

BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (NASDAQ:IBIT) has established itself as the institutional vehicle of choice for Bitcoin exposure. At a market capitalization of $165.38 billion and average daily volume of 77.68 million shares, IBIT provides liquidity that rivals the most actively traded equity ETFs in existence. The day range on Friday was $36.91 to $37.63, reflecting a tightening of intraday volatility as the price compresses toward the lower end of its 52-week band.

The $35.30 52-week low sits just $1.89 below Friday's close — barely 5% of downside before IBIT enters uncharted territory at new cycle lows. The Iran strikes create a realistic scenario where Monday's open pushes the ETF toward that $35 level as BTC-USD retests the $60,000–$63,000 support zone. A break below $35.30 in IBIT would correspond roughly to Bitcoin at $58,000–$60,000, which is the line in the sand for the entire crypto complex.

Altcoin ETFs Tell a Different Story — XRP and Solana Continued Attracting Capital on Friday

While Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs bled on Friday, the altcoin ETF category held firm. XRP ETFs recorded $2.21 million in net inflows, driven by Franklin's XRPZ, with total trading volume of $12.42 million and net assets at $983.18 million. Solana ETFs added $1.31 million, powered entirely by Bitwise's BSOL, on $25.70 million in volume with total net assets at $753.16 million.

Ethereum ETFs were the worst performers on Friday, posting $43 million in outflows — entirely from BlackRock's ETHA — with no other ether funds reporting activity. Total ETH ETF assets fell to $10.96 billion. The divergence is instructive: institutional capital rotating out of ETH while maintaining or increasing exposure to XRP and SOL suggests active portfolio rebalancing within the crypto allocation rather than blanket de-risking. The $43 million ETH outflow dwarfs the $27.55 million BTC outflow, and the fact that altcoin ETFs absorbed inflows on the same session means the Friday flow picture was not uniformly bearish — it was selectively repositioning.

BTC-USD Technical Structure — RSI 36.05, ADX 48.25, and the $60,000–$70,000 Range That Contains Everything

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) trades near $66,295 with a technical structure that is bearish but approaching levels where countertrend opportunities emerge. The RSI at 36.05 sits below neutral and near — but not at — oversold territory. A reading below 30 would signal capitulation-level selling exhaustion; at 36, the oscillator says momentum is weak but has room to deteriorate further before a reversal becomes probable.

The ADX at 48.25 confirms a strong, organized downtrend — one of the highest readings in the current cycle. ADX above 40 is rare and indicates that the selling is systematic, not random. Breakouts in either direction tend to extend quickly at this ADX level, which means a break below $63,000 support or above $69,000 resistance will be followed by a swift directional move. The MACD is negative at -4,614.34 but the histogram shows slight improvement, suggesting the velocity of selling is decelerating even as the trend remains firmly lower. The Money Flow Index at 41.57 reflects modest dip-buying without the conviction needed to call a bottom.

The Bollinger Band structure frames the range. The middle band sits at $68,452, the upper band at $75,860, and the lower band at $61,045. The Keltner Channel lower boundary at $62,872 converges with the Bollinger lower band to create a dense support cluster between $61,000 and $63,000. The psychological $60,000 level sits just below that cluster, meaning three technical reference points — Bollinger, Keltner, and round number — all converge within a $3,000 range. If that zone holds, the technical case for a bounce toward the Bollinger middle band at $68,452 and then the $70,000 resistance becomes actionable. If it breaks, the Average True Range of $3,728 projects a one-standard-deviation move lower to approximately $57,000–$58,000.

Moving Averages Confirm the Bear Trend — 50-Day at $79,177, 200-Day at $97,898

BTC-USD at $66,295 trades 16% below its 50-day moving average at $79,177 and 32% below its 200-day at $97,898. The spread between price and the 200-day MA is the widest since the 2022 bear market bottom. Markets that trade this far below their long-term averages are either in secular bear trends or in capitulation phases that precede violent reversals. The current setup could be either — and the Iran conflict is the variable that tips the balance.

Resistance emerges at $68,500 (Bollinger middle band), $69,000 (futures overhead supply where trapped longs and resting offers concentrate), and $70,000 (psychological and structural). A daily close above $69,000 would shift short-term momentum bullish and target $70,000–$70,500. Above that, the 50-day MA at $79,177 becomes the medium-term recovery target, but reclaiming it requires a macro and geopolitical backdrop that currently does not exist.

Iran Strikes, PPI Shock, and the Macro Backdrop That Pushed BTC Below $66,000

The selloff that brought BTC-USD to $65,700 on Friday — before the Iran strikes — was driven by a hotter-than-expected U.S. producer price report. Core PPI printed 3.6% year-over-year against a 3.0% consensus, with the monthly reading at 0.8% versus the 0.3% estimate. Higher inflation data lifted Treasury yields and the dollar, pressuring growth stocks (Nvidia pulled back despite beating earnings) and dragging crypto lower through correlation. Bitcoin tracked equities into thinner weekend liquidity, where leveraged longs unwound into sparse order books, accelerating the decline.

Then Saturday rewrote the playbook. U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran targeted Tehran, Isfahan, Qom, Karaj, and Kermanshah. Iran retaliated. The Strait of Hormuz — 20% of global oil, 23% of LNG — reportedly closed. Bitcoin had already probed $63,000 intraday on the PPI-driven selloff; the Iran conflict adds a layer of geopolitical tail risk that pushes the probability of a retest of $60,000–$63,000 substantially higher when Monday's session opens. The $400 million in shorts squeezed on Wednesday's bounce to $68,500 was immediately given back by Thursday — a pattern of violent short-covering followed by fresh selling that characterizes a market with no underlying directional conviction.

The "Diamond Hands" Thesis — Why $55 Billion in Cumulative Inflows and Only 6% Holdings Decline Matters

The Bitcoin ETF category has experienced five consecutive weeks of outflows in 2026, with $3.81 billion in net outflows since January 23 alone. Monday of the most recent week saw $203.82 million exit. But the aggregate picture tells a fundamentally different story. Holdings across all spot BTC ETFs are down only approximately 6% from peak despite a 48% price decline. Fifty percent drawdowns are routine in Bitcoin's history — 2011, 2014, 2018, 2022 all produced declines of 50% or greater, and each was followed by a recovery to new all-time highs. The ETF investor base appears to understand this cycle pattern and is behaving accordingly.

The comparison to equities is apt: stocks have a 100% historical record of recovering from drawdowns to reach new highs. Bitcoin, over its 15-year existence, carries the same record. Every 50%+ decline has been fully recovered. The cost of holding through the drawdown — the volatility, the negative sentiment, the Fear and Greed at 11 — is what produces the outsized returns on the other side. The ETF structure makes holding easier: no custody risk, no exchange counterparty risk, tax-advantaged account eligibility, and familiar brokerage interfaces. These structural advantages are why $55 billion entered in two years and why 88% of it remains despite the worst drawdown since FTX.

Price Forecasts — $54,427 Monthly Risk, $98,201 Yearly Target, $152,397 at Five Years

Baseline projections for BTC-USD show a one-month mean of $54,427, a one-quarter mean of $122,324, a one-year mean of $98,201, a three-year mean of $125,321, and a five-year mean of $152,397. The monthly target of $54,427 implies a further 18% decline from current levels — a scenario consistent with the $60,000 support zone breaking under Iran-driven panic and extending toward the $54,000–$55,000 area where the 2024 halving accumulation zone provided a long-term floor.

The quarterly projection of $122,324 is the most ambitious near-term target, requiring a complete reversal of the current bear trend and a return above the 200-day MA at $97,898 within three months. That scenario demands both a de-escalation of the Iran conflict and a shift in Fed policy toward active easing — a combination that is possible but not the base case. The yearly mean of $98,201 represents a 48% gain from current levels, essentially pricing a full recovery to the neighborhood of the 200-day MA over twelve months. The five-year target of $152,397 implies a 130% return, which is conservative by Bitcoin's historical standards but reasonable given increasing institutional adoption through the ETF structure.

The Verdict — Bitcoin ETF / IBIT (NASDAQ:IBIT): Buy the $60,000–$63,000 Zone, Diamond Hands Justified, Target $70,000 Near-Term and $98,000 Over 12 Months

Bitcoin ETFs and IBIT (NASDAQ:IBIT) at $37.19 carry a buy rating on weakness toward the $60,000–$63,000 BTC-USD support cluster, corresponding to approximately $33.50–$35.30 in IBIT. Near-term target: $70,000 BTC / $39.50 IBIT. Twelve-month target: $98,000 BTC / $54–$55 IBIT.

The bull case rests on flow resilience that is historically unprecedented. Fifty-five billion dollars entered spot Bitcoin ETFs over two years. Only $6.5 billion left during a 48% drawdown — an 88% retention rate with holdings declining just 6%. The three-day inflow streak this week totaled over $1 billion, with a single-day peak of $507 million. Friday's $27.55 million outflow was driven entirely by a $32.71 million exit from IBIT and was partially offset by inflows into BTCO ($3.27M) and EZBC ($1.9M). XRP and Solana ETFs attracted capital on the same session, confirming that institutional rotation within crypto is active, not a wholesale exit. The ETF structure removes the friction and counterparty risk that caused forced selling in prior cycles — no FTX-style blowups, no Mt. Gox-style hacks, no exchange insolvency cascading through the market. This is why the drawdown has been absorbed with only 6% of holdings liquidated.

The bear case is real and short-term dominant. BTC-USD trades 48% below ATH, 16% below the 50-day MA, 32% below the 200-day MA. RSI at 36.05 is weak but not oversold, meaning more downside is technically available. ADX at 48.25 confirms a powerful downtrend. Iran strikes add unquantifiable geopolitical tail risk that will gap prices lower on Monday. Core PPI at 3.6% complicates the Fed easing timeline, keeping real yields elevated and risk appetite suppressed. Five consecutive weeks of ETF outflows in 2026 with $3.81 billion leaving since January 23. The Fear and Greed Index at 11 reflects extreme pessimism that typically precedes final capitulation — but "precedes" can mean days or weeks, not hours.

The strategy: scale into the $60,000–$63,000 zone where Bollinger ($61,045), Keltner ($62,872), and psychological ($60,000) support converge. Use IBIT as the vehicle for its 77.68 million daily volume liquidity and tax-advantaged account eligibility. Stop below $57,000 BTC / $32.00 IBIT on a daily closing basis (approximately 8% risk from the $62,000 midpoint of the support zone). First target: $68,452 Bollinger middle band, then $69,000–$70,000 resistance. If $70,000 clears with volume, add to the position targeting the 50-day MA at $79,177. The twelve-month view favors full recovery toward $98,000 based on the ETF retention data, the 100% historical recovery rate from 50%+ drawdowns, and the structural demand created by $55 billion in cumulative inflows that has not meaningfully unwound despite the most aggressive selloff since 2022. The Iran conflict creates the Monday gap that produces the entry price. The $55 billion in diamond hands creates the floor that limits the duration of the drawdown. Buy the fear. The ETF flows say the bottom is forming

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