Bitcoin ETF Inflows Reverse: IBIT ETF Selling Mounts as BTC-USD Clings to $60K Floor

Bitcoin ETF Flows: From Liquidity Engine to Structural Headwind

BTC-USD Drawdown Deepens as Macro Risk and ETF Selling Align

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) has shifted into a clean drawdown regime. Spot slipped through the $63,000 band on February 24, printing an intraday low near $62,858–$62,964 and recovering only marginally toward the high $63,000s, leaving the day roughly 3% lower and extending a four-session slide. From the October 2025 peak above $125,000, BTC-USD is now down about 50%, with month-to-date losses above 19% and year-to-date performance roughly -27% to -28%. This is shaping up as the steepest monthly setback since the 2022 washout, but the path down is slower and more orderly.
The stress is broad, not coin-specific. Total crypto market cap has almost halved from its high and now hovers near $2.2 trillion. Ether trades in the $1,800–$1,826 zone after a roughly 5% daily hit. A high-beta Trump-linked token that listed near $45 in 2025 changes hands around $3.26, showing how speculative tails have been crushed. BTC-USD is trading the way a high-duration, liquidity-sensitive asset behaves when macro turns hostile.

Tariffs, War Risk and AI Panic: Why Liquidity Is Walking Out of BTC

The macro backdrop has turned aggressively unfriendly for high-beta risk. The United States has moved to a 10% global tariff under Section 122 of the 1974 Trade Act, locked in for 150 days through July 24, with a stated intention to push toward the 15% statutory ceiling. Markets are being forced to price not just a one-off trade shock but the risk of a more entrenched tariff regime.
At the same time, U.S.–Iran tension has escalated. Additional U.S. assets have been deployed into the Middle East, non-essential staff have been pulled from the Beirut embassy, and a strike option on Iran is openly discussed. This is the largest perceived military overhang since the 2003 Iraq build-up. That mix typically supports the dollar and physical havens while choking demand for high-beta expressions like BTC-USD.
Layered on top is a sentiment shock from widely circulated AI “doom” scenarios flagging job loss and business model risk for growth and platform names later this decade. That note hit exactly the investor cohort that also holds large technology and crypto positions. The result is coordinated de-risking across growth, AI, and BTC-USD rather than idiosyncratic crypto capitulation.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs: From Relentless Buyers to Systematic Sellers

Spot Bitcoin ETFs, which powered the march to $126,000 in 2025, have flipped from demand drivers to persistent supply. U.S. spot ETF net asset value peaked near $170 billion in October 2025 and now sits around $84.3 billion. Cumulative net inflows have fallen from a historic high near $63 billion to roughly $54 billion. Since July 2025, only about $5 billion of net new capital has entered the complex despite the massive marketing push.
On the flow side, the direction is clear. Since November, Bitcoin ETFs have seen about $7.2 billion in net outflows, while Ethereum products shed another $2.8 billion. Over the seven trading sessions from February 12 to 19, spot BTC funds lost 11,042 BTC, including a 6,120-BTC single-day outflow on February 12, roughly $416 million at prevailing prices. Outflows continued on February 17 and 18 with 1,520 BTC and 1,980 BTC respectively, while sizeable inflow of 5,900 BTC on February 6 stands out as the exception, not the rule.
Analysts tracking the complex argue that at least three consecutive sessions of meaningful net inflows are needed to call a turn. That sequence has not appeared. For now, ETF flows are a steady supply source into a soft order book rather than a cushion under price.

IBIT and the New Ownership Profile of BTC-USD

The flagship IBIT ETF (NASDAQ:IBIT), BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust, sits at the center of this rotation. IBIT’s BTC balance has declined from roughly 806,000 BTC to about 759,000 BTC, a reduction of around 6%, while the fund’s quoted market capitalization is near $167.8 billion with the share price around $36.53 in a $35.60–$36.71 intraday range and a 52-week range of $35.30–$71.82.
The key shift is not just the amount of BTC held but who owns it. IBIT and its peers have migrated BTC-USD into the same accounts that manage large-cap tech and growth factor mandates. When those desks cut risk in vehicles like IGV or broader tech indices, they increasingly trim IBIT alongside them. BTC-USD has, functionally, become a high-beta extension of the technology and AI complex on many institutional balance sheets.
Commentary from managers underscores this point. The view is that BTC “didn’t fail as an asset, it succeeded as an ETF” — and that success pulled it deeper into the traditional risk-on / risk-off grid. The result is higher correlation with tech drawdowns, more sensitivity to equity fund redemptions and a price path that looks less like “digital gold” and more like levered growth exposure with a different ticker.

Gold ETFs and Real Yields Pull Capital Away from Bitcoin

While BTC-USD is under pressure, gold has captured the classical safe-haven bid. Front-month bullion trades firmly above $5,000 per ounce, with April futures opening near $5,247.50 versus a prior close around $5,225.60 and marking the first open above $5,200 since late January. Over the past year, gold has returned close to 79%, after being up more than 95% at the late-January peak, and recent pullbacks in the 0.6%–1.6% intraday range have been shallow relative to the up-trend.
Flows reinforce the message. Ninety-day rolling inflows into gold ETFs peaked near $30 billion in April 2025 and around $36 billion in October 2025, while Bitcoin ETF inflows turned negative on the same rolling basis around March–April 2025. In January 2026 gold still drew roughly $29 billion over 90 days, easing to $21 billion by mid-February, yet BTC ETF flows stayed in the red.
Structural demand underpins gold at a much deeper level. Total global consumption reached about 5,002 tonnes in 2025, with over 2,100 tonnes in investment and around 863 tonnes absorbed by central banks. Retail benchmarks reflect that strength: in India, quotes sit near 15,154 rupees per gram versus 15,341 rupees the previous day and about 176,765 rupees per tola versus 178,932, a modest retracement after an aggressive rally, not a trend break.
Tight monetary conditions amplify this divergence. The U.S. federal funds rate stands above the two-year Treasury yield, the 10-year trades near 4.1%, and real 10-year yields around 1.7%–1.8%. Positive real yields make non-yielding assets like BTC-USD more expensive to hold relative to bonds, especially for institutions benchmarked to fixed-income returns. ETF allocators are visibly shifting toward a mix of short-dated paper, cash-like instruments and gold, while trimming BTC exposure.

XRP and Solana ETFs Quietly Accumulate While BTC and ETH Leak Capital

Against this backdrop, ETF flows into XRP and Solana (SOL) products stand out as a relative bright spot. Both asset classes launched U.S. spot ETFs directly into this cooling environment yet have not posted a single negative month of net flows since inception.
Solana ETF net inflows dropped from roughly $419 million in November to about $19 million in February; XRP ETF flows slid from about $667 million to $49 million over the same window. The pace slowed dramatically but never flipped to net red. U.S. spot XRP ETFs have reportedly seen outflows on only five trading days since launch, an unusually stable profile during a period of falling prices.
This resilience comes while spot SOL-USD trades around $78–$82 after a daily decline of roughly 5% and a drawdown of about 38% over the past month, and XRP-USD holds near $1.36 after repeated bouts of pressure. The message from flows is that the regulated capital base for XRP and Solana remains in accumulation mode, even as BTC and ETH vehicles see sustained redemptions. Allocators appear to be diversifying within the crypto ETF sleeve rather than abandoning it entirely.

Three-Layer Pressure: ETF Redemptions, Derivatives Liquidations and On-Chain Supply

Short-term price action in BTC-USD is being driven by a stacked set of flows that all point in the same direction. U.S. spot ETFs saw more than $200 million in net outflows on a single day early in the week, at the same time that over $240 million in leveraged long positions were liquidated across derivatives venues as key intraday support levels failed.
Over the broader February window, spot ETFs reduced balances by roughly 15,000 BTC, contributing to a cumulative reduction of around 85,000–87,000 BTC since October 2025. Total ETF holdings now sit near 1.26 million BTC versus a prior peak near 1.36 million. Research desks monitoring on-chain flows note that large holders have been moving significant quantities of BTC onto exchanges, the classic pattern before distribution rather than accumulation.
Mining entities add another drip of supply. Those that invested heavily in AI and high-performance compute infrastructure during the 2025 boom are facing tighter equity conditions and drawdowns in related stocks. To shore up balance sheets and maintain cash buffers, they have been selling down BTC reserves into a market already digesting ETF redemptions and leveraged unwind.
With ETFs redeeming shares, derivatives platforms forcing out longs and whales plus miners sending coins toward exchanges, every intraday bounce has met supply. Short-covering rallies occur but stall under the same resistance bands, reinforcing a trend where rallies are sold rather than dips aggressively bought.

Late-Cycle Tightening and the ‘Purification’ of BTC-USD Holders

Macro analysts describe the first quarter of 2026 as a classic late-cycle restrictive digestion phase. The Federal Reserve has stopped shrinking its balance sheet but has not yet shifted to a clear easing stance. Financial conditions remain tight: real yields are positive, credit spreads have not fully compressed, and global trade uncertainty from the 10% tariff regime adds another drag.
In previous tightening cycles, BTC-USD often rolled over ahead of the broader equity market. A similar pattern is playing out. The combination of higher real yields, tariff overhang and war risk has turned ETF flows negative and driven systematic sellers to trim high-beta assets.
Within that framework, some portfolio managers frame the current period as a “purification” of the holder base. Short-term traders, high-leverage players and late-cycle ETF entrants are gradually exiting. At the same time, slower-moving pools — sovereign wealth funds, pension plans, corporate treasuries — are starting to explore or scale positions via vehicles like IBIT, but these allocators operate with multi-decade horizons and build exposure over longer windows.
The transition is uneven. ETF flow data still show net selling, and stablecoin supply has been flat rather than expanding, indicating that fresh liquidity has not yet returned in size. Until either real yields fall or policy guidance turns clearly more supportive, it is unlikely that spot BTC ETFs will reproduce the March and December 2024-style surges where 90-day inflows exceeded $16–$21.6 billion.

Technical Map: BTC-USD Range, Volatility Profile and Key Damage Zones

On the chart, BTC-USD trades in a well-defined but fragile band. The lower boundary of the structure sits in the $60,000–$62,000 zone, where recent lows cluster and psychological support converges. The upper boundary lies in the $72,000–$74,000 region, which has capped every sustained rebound since late 2024. Current pricing just under $63,000 leaves BTC-USD only marginally above that lower belt.
A weekly close below $60,000–$62,000 would confirm a break of the existing range and expose the dense high-volume area around $49,000–$53,000 that shaped the second half of 2024. From today’s level, that band implies roughly 15%–22% additional downside. If selling extends beyond that zone, the next structurally important region is the $38,000–$42,000 area, where long-term moving averages and multi-year trend lines intersect.
To the upside, bulls need a sustained reclaim and hold above $72,000–$74,000 on a multi-week basis to argue that the consolidation is resolving higher rather than simply delivering a series of oversold bounces inside a declining channel. Without that, every move into the high-60s and low-70s remains technically vulnerable to renewed supply from trapped longs and systematic sellers.
Ninety-day realised volatility sits near 38, about half the extremes seen during the 2022 bear market when BTC-USD fell about 78% from the $69,000 peak to below $16,000 and intraday swings were violent. Today’s volatility profile signals controlled deleveraging rather than panic. Liquidity is thinner, but order books have not shown the air pockets that characterised the 2022 credit cascade.

BTC, IBIT and Flow Scenarios for the Next Phase

The path for BTC-USD and IBIT over the coming months clusters around three scenarios defined by the existing ranges and flow dynamics.
In a range-extension scenario, the $60,000–$62,000 band holds on a weekly closing basis. BTC-USD spends an extended period oscillating between that floor and the $72,000–$74,000 ceiling while macro remains noisy. ETF outflows slow from the current pace toward flat, stablecoin supply begins to edge higher, and leverage stays subdued after the recent $240 million liquidation wave. IBIT stabilizes near current AUM levels, with flows choppy but no longer persistently negative. Under that structure, dip-buying near the low 60s and selling strength into the low 70s dominates.
In a downside-extension scenario, BTC-USD loses the 60–62K floor on a weekly close. That unlocks the 49,000–53,000 demand zone built in 2024. A break driven by another burst of ETF redemptions or a fresh macro shock could push realised volatility back toward 2022-style readings and force a deeper flush, potentially probing the 38,000–42,000 cluster. That is where capitulation by late-cycle entrants, distressed selling from some ETF holders and aggressive deleveraging in altcoins would likely converge. IBIT in that environment would register further BTC redemptions and a drop in market cap from today’s $167.8 billion headline.
In an upside-repair scenario, trade tensions ease, Iran risk de-escalates, tech and AI equities regain footing and ETF flows across risk assets pivot back toward inflows. Stablecoin supply resumes clear growth, and BTC-USD reclaims $72,000–$74,000 and holds. That would convert the current band into a completed consolidation and gradually bring the $100,000+ zone back into view. IBIT flows would flip positive again, and the narrative would shift from “ETF-driven selling” to “ETF-anchored accumulation.”
Gold remains a critical cross-check across all three. Persistent pricing above $5,000 with repeated probes of $5,200–$5,300 confirms a strong safe-haven bid and tends to cap the speed of any BTC-USD recovery. Only when gold flattens or consolidates while macro risk falls does a durable BTC-USD rebound become more probable.

Strategic Stance: BTC-USD and IBIT Rated Hold with a Negative Short-Term Bias

Taking price, flows, macro and cross-asset context together, BTC-USD is in a 50% drawdown from the $125,000 peak, trading just above a 60–62K floor with a clearly defined 49–53K demand zone below and a 38–42K long-term support cluster further down. Spot ETFs have reduced reserves by around 85,000–87,000 BTC since October 2025, IBIT’s holdings have slipped from about 806,000 BTC to 759,000 BTC, and cumulative ETF net inflows have rolled over even as gold ETFs continue to attract tens of billions on a 90-day basis.
Macro conditions are unambiguously restrictive: a 10% global U.S. tariff regime in place for 150 days with a possible move to 15%, elevated Middle East war risk, firm real yields and a stronger dollar. Realised volatility is elevated but not yet at capitulation levels, and market plumbing is far healthier than during the 2022 credit breakdown, which argues against a structural collapse narrative.
Under that configuration, the stance on BTC-USD and IBIT is a Hold with a negative short-term bias. The reward-to-risk at roughly $63,000 does not favour aggressive new long exposure while the 60–62K floor is under pressure and ETF flows remain negative, with a visible 15%–22% air pocket down to the 49–53K zone. At the same time, the combination of an already large 50% drawdown, improving market infrastructure and a gradual shift toward longer-horizon capital via IBIT and peer funds suggests that deeper flushes into the high-40s to low-50s would likely attract substantial demand from multi-year allocators.
Until BTC-USD can reclaim and hold above $72,000–$74,000 and spot Bitcoin ETFs register a sustained sequence of net inflows rather than outflows, the tape is sending a clear message: flows and macro still justify caution, rallies are for reducing risk rather than chasing, and any structural accumulation case sits materially lower than current levels.

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