Bitcoin ETF Inflows Roar Back To IBIT ETF With $258M As BTC-USD Reclaims The $65K Zone

Bitcoin ETF Flows Flip Green After A $3.8B Bleed

From Five Weeks Of Redemptions To A $258M Inflow Day

Price Context For Bitcoin (BTC-USD) Around $65,000

Spot Bitcoin (BTC-USD) has clawed back to roughly $65,000–$66,000 after testing support near $62,500 earlier in the week. Intraday moves saw BTC trading around $65,500–$65,700 as risk sentiment improved and Asian equities pushed higher. At these levels, BTC sits well below the heavy resistance band defined by the 50-, 100- and 200-day EMAs clustered between roughly $76,400 and $91,452, which means the broader structure is still corrective even as short-term momentum stabilizes. The RSI near 35 on the daily chart has bounced off oversold territory but remains below the 50 midline, signaling faded selling pressure rather than a clean trend reversal. MACD has turned back above its signal line, pointing to early, fragile upside momentum rather than a full-throttle risk-on regime.

IBIT And FBTC Regain Control Of Inflows

After five straight weeks of net outflows totaling about $3.8 billion from US spot Bitcoin ETFs, Tuesday marked a clear shift: spot products pulled in roughly $257–258 million of net inflows, the strongest single session since early February. Fidelity’s Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) led the day with around $83 million of fresh money, while BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust IBIT followed closely with about $79 million. Ark/21Shares’ ARKB added another ~$71 million, turning what had been a one-way redemption tape into a meaningful positive print. Cumulatively, US spot Bitcoin ETFs still show more than $54 billion of net inflows since launch, off a peak above $62 billion around October 2025 but clearly not in “capitulation” territory. The pattern is straightforward: large managers like Fidelity and BlackRock are still the pipes through which tactical and medium-term demand is returning on dips, even as weaker hands continue to clean up risk.

AUM Compression Exposes How Deep This Drawdown Is

Even with Tuesday’s $258 million inflow, assets under management across US spot Bitcoin ETFs tell a harsher story. AUM has dropped roughly 30.5% since the start of 2026, sliding from about $117 billion to around $81.3 billion. That contraction reflects both price damage and persistent redemptions over the last five weeks. At the same time, cumulative net inflows above $54 billion mean a large cohort of early buyers is still in the trade; they simply sit on sizeable drawdowns. The message is that ETF demand hasn’t disappeared, but leverage, momentum accounts and late-cycle inflows have been forced to de-risk, leaving a smaller but stickier base of capital.

Institutional Positioning: 25,000 BTC Sold, 311,700 BTC Still Parked In ETFs

Regulatory filings for Q4 2025 show how aggressively institutions trimmed Bitcoin exposure into the prior leg of weakness. 13F filers – investment advisers, hedge funds and other reportable entities – sold ETF shares equivalent to around 25,000 BTC during the quarter, roughly $1.6 billion at current prices. That is significant flow, but still modest relative to an estimated Bitcoin market cap around $1.3 trillion. Even after those cuts, institutions tracked via 13Fs still hold about 311,700 BTC through ETF structures. That mix tells you two things. First, Q4 was used to reduce risk, not to abandon the asset class. Second, the marginal institutional buyer is now much more price-sensitive and data-driven; they add on dislocations, not on euphoria.

On-Chain Damage: 45% Of Supply Underwater Keeps Sentiment Heavy

Roughly 45% of the circulating Bitcoin supply – close to 9 million BTC – is currently sitting at an unrealized loss versus its cost basis. That’s the core reason sentiment feels fragile even as ETFs show a one-day influx of $258 million. When nearly half the supply is underwater, every bounce into resistance risks turning into a liquidity event, as mid-term holders are tempted to reduce exposure or exit at break-even. This also explains why inflow spikes don’t translate immediately into runaway rallies: fresh capital is partially absorbed by legacy positions selling into strength after a brutal drawdown.

Ethereum And XRP ETFs: Mild Inflows, Weak Structures

US-listed Ethereum products quietly joined the rebound, with spot ETH ETFs pulling in roughly $9–11 million on Tuesday. One large product for ETH-USD saw about $11 million of inflows while another posted roughly $1.9 million of outflows, leaving net demand modest but positive. Cumulative inflows stand near $11.5 million with ETF AUM around $10.5 billion, a fraction of the Bitcoin ETF complex. Ethereum itself trades just above $1,900, with downside cushion near $1,800 and a key resistance band around the 50-day EMA near $2,385. RSI has crawled up from oversold levels but remains below 50, signaling that the larger downtrend is still intact.
On the XRP side, ETFs added around $3 million Tuesday after two inactive sessions, with cumulative inflows around $1.23 billion and net assets close to $981 million. Spot XRP hovers near $1.38–$1.40, trapped beneath a descending trendline that capped price near $2.41 in January. EMAs between roughly $1.63 and $2.08 continue to act as overhead supply. Both ETH-USD and XRP-USD show stabilization and selective institutional interest but lack the structural strength to pull the broader complex higher on their own.

Solana, Rotation Flows And What They Signal For Bitcoin Demand

While Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs swung between inflows and heavy outflows in February, Solana products have quietly logged a streak of mostly green days. Solana-linked ETFs have pulled in about $30.33 million this month, with only three red sessions and consecutive inflows since around February 10. That marks a stark contrast to Bitcoin ETFs’ net February outflow of roughly $939.94 million and Ethereum outflows near $490.58 million. On the price side, SOL-USD has still dropped around 32–38% over the month, at one point trading near $75 before rebounding back above $82–$89, which shows that ETF demand has not been enough to fully offset spot selling pressure. For Bitcoin, this rotation matters in two ways. First, it confirms that institutional and sophisticated capital is not leaving crypto as an asset class; it is shifting between risk buckets, from large-caps into higher-beta names like Solana. Second, it underlines that flows into smaller-cap ETFs do not replace the signaling power of Bitcoin ETFs; BTC products still anchor the macro narrative.

Technical Structure: BTC-USD Still Below Major EMAs Despite ETF Bounce

Technically, BTC-USD sits in a classic “counter-trend rally” zone. Price reclaimed support above $62,500 and now trades around $65,000–$66,000. MACD has crossed above its signal line on the daily, confirming a pause in downside momentum, and RSI at ~35 has exited oversold conditions. The immediate resistance window is tight: $70,600 marked recent swing highs, with a secondary cap near $72,271 and a larger supply band where the SuperTrend and prior congestion align in the $72,500–$74,700 area. Only above that zone does the tape start to look like a genuine trend reversal rather than a dead-cat bounce. On the downside, a loss of $62,500 would reopen risk toward the low $60,000s and potentially the high $50,000s if ETF flows flip negative again.

ETF Flow Tape And Macro Backdrop: Dollar, Tariffs, Risk Appetite

Macro conditions are providing some support to the latest bounce. A softer US dollar after Donald Trump’s State of the Union remarks, combined with a risk-on tilt in Asian equities, has eased pressure on Bitcoin and high-beta assets in general. MSCI’s Asia gauge pushed to record levels as AI-linked chipmakers in South Korea and Taiwan ripped higher ahead of Nvidia earnings, helping lift crypto sentiment. At the same time, Trump reaffirmed aggressive tariff plans and even floated tariffs as a partial replacement for income tax, injecting further uncertainty into FX markets and global trade. Historically, periods of dollar wobble and policy unpredictability have often coincided with stronger BTC-USD, but the relationship during this drawdown has been inconsistent. For now, macro is a tailwind, not a primary driver. ETF flow direction and realized volatility remain the key short-term levers.

Read Of The Tape: Tactical Buying, Not A Full Capitulation Low

The pattern across ETFs, on-chain data and price action points to tactical buying rather than a completed bottom. A single $258 million inflow day after five weeks and $3.8 billion of outflows is meaningful, but not decisive. AUM has shrunk by nearly one-third since January, institutional holdings via ETFs dropped by roughly 25,000 BTC in Q4, and about 45% of supply is still underwater. Those conditions typically require multiple weeks of steady inflows, cleaner breakouts above key EMAs and a reset in positioning before a durable uptrend resumes. Right now, the tape shows selective re-entry on weakness, not a rush to chase upside.

IBIT ETF (NASDAQ: IBIT) As A Clean Gauge Of Spot Demand

The iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (NASDAQ: IBIT) is the most straightforward proxy for listed Bitcoin demand. The fund is trading around $39.02, up 6.80% on the session, with a day range between $37.53 and $39.46 after a prior close at $36.53. Over the last year, IBIT has swung between roughly $35.30 and $71.82, putting the current price deep in the lower half of its 52-week range. Market cap sits close to $169.97 billion with an average volume near 76.84 million shares, underscoring its liquidity and its role as a primary vehicle for both institutional and high-net-worth exposure. The latest ~$79 million inflow into IBIT confirms that large players are willing to build or add exposure through this instrument on dips near the lower end of its range instead of waiting for textbook capitulation. As long as IBIT continues to print regular inflow days and holds above the mid-30s, the ETF tape supports the idea of accumulation, not distribution.

Buy, Sell Or Hold View On Bitcoin And IBIT ETF

Labeling the setup purely: BTC-USD and IBIT sit in a Hold with bullish bias zone. At ~$65,000 for BTC-USD and ~$39 for IBIT, the market has already absorbed five weeks of ETF outflows, a 30.5% AUM drawdown and visible institutional selling of about 25,000 BTC in Q4, while still maintaining more than $54 billion of net ETF inflows and 311,700 BTC held via reportable institutions. Short-term, upside is capped by technical resistance between $70,600 and roughly $74,700 and by the overhead weight of underwater supply. Downside, however, is increasingly buffered by returning ETF inflows, deep liquidity in IBIT, and oversold on-chain and momentum metrics. A decisive shift to Buy would require three things: multiple consecutive weeks of net positive ETF flows led by products like IBIT and FBTC, a clean reclaim of the 50- and 100-day EMAs above roughly $76,000, and a reduction in the share of underwater supply toward 30% or less. A move back below $62,500 accompanied by renewed ETF outflows and fresh institutional selling would downgrade the stance toward Sell/Avoid until a new base forms. At current levels, the rational stance is to treat Bitcoin and IBIT as core positions to maintain, with selective accumulation on pullbacks into the low-60Ks rather than aggressive chasing into resistance.

That's TradingNEWS