Bitcoin ETFs Pull in $676M as BTC-USD Nears $120K; BlackRock’s IBIT Breaks $90B AUM

Bitcoin ETFs Record $675.8M Inflows as BTC-USD Climbs Toward $120,000

Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds saw a dramatic surge in demand this week, with total inflows hitting $675.8 million on October 2, the highest single-day level since September 12. The price of Bitcoin (BTC-USD) responded in kind, trading at $119,288 intraday and briefly touching $120,000, just a few thousand dollars short of its all-time high of $124,457 set in August. This marks three consecutive sessions of nine-figure inflows, with $518 million on September 29, $429.9 million on September 30, and Thursday’s record tally, bringing the cumulative three-day haul to over $1.6 billion.

BlackRock’s IBIT Leads with $405.5M; Fidelity and Bitwise Follow

BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) dominated the flows, pulling in $405.5 million in a single day, its largest haul since mid-August, lifting its assets under management to $90.7 billion. IBIT has now officially broken into the top 20 ETFs globally by size. Fidelity’s Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) followed with $179.3 million in inflows, while Bitwise’s (BITB) added $59.4 million. By contrast, just last week on September 26, Bitcoin ETFs suffered $418.3 million in net outflows, led by a $300.4 million drawdown in FBTC. The reversal underscores the renewed conviction from institutional investors.

Macro Backdrop: Fed Rate Cut Odds Near 100%

Traders are increasingly aligning Bitcoin ETF inflows with shifting U.S. monetary expectations. The latest ADP private payrolls report showed a loss of 32,000 jobs, deepening fears of labor market weakness. That data pushed CME FedWatch odds for a 25bps Fed cut in October to 97.3%, with a second cut expected by December. On prediction markets, contracts now assign a 75% probability of exactly two cuts before year-end. This easing bias has weakened the U.S. dollar and fueled flows into Bitcoin, gold, and silver as alternative hedges. The narrative of the “debasement trade” is resurfacing, with investors seeking scarce assets to shield portfolios from fiscal deficits and inflation.

Institutional Confidence and Global Capital Rotation

According to JPMorgan strategists, Bitcoin is increasingly absorbing both safe-haven flows traditionally reserved for gold and growth-asset allocations similar to technology stocks. With Bitcoin up 95% year-on-year, gold up 40%, and silver 60%, institutional allocation patterns show a broad tilt toward hard assets. BlackRock’s IBIT growth trajectory is so strong that ETF analysts project it could join the top 10 ETFs by assets within two years if current inflows sustain. Wall Street forecasts vary: Citigroup sees $133,000 as a base case for year-end BTC with a bull scenario at $181,000, while downside risks could test $83,000 if global risk appetite falters.

Options and On-Chain Data Reinforce $115K–$120K Base

Derivatives markets reveal traders heavily concentrated in the $100,000–$120,000 BTC strike range, with lighter speculative bets extending toward $130,000 and $300,000. On-chain indicators suggest structural support is building. Glassnode data shows short-term holder realized value ratios (STH-RVT) shrinking, indicating speculative selling has cooled. Meanwhile, long-term holder net position change has stabilized in neutral territory, implying profit-taking pressure is subsiding. This setup mirrors earlier consolidation phases when Bitcoin held between $28K and $32K before launching higher. Analysts now identify $115,000–$120,000 as a critical accumulation zone.

Ethereum ETFs Join the Rally With $80M+ Inflows

It wasn’t just Bitcoin ETFs benefiting. Ethereum spot ETFs added $80.9 million on October 2, building on $127.5 million the day before and $546.9 million on September 30. Ethereum (ETH-USD) is trading at $4,449, up 1.6%, after breaking the $4,400 resistance level. Spot ETH volumes surged to $7.17 billion, with futures trading at $97.3 billion, and open interest climbing nearly 2% to $59 billion. Ethereum ETFs have become a second pillar for institutional inflows, reinforcing October’s narrative as “ETF Month” across the crypto sector.

Short Liquidations and Uptober Momentum

The ETF-driven rally has been amplified by a $700 million short squeeze across global crypto markets in the first two days of October. Bitcoin alone erased over $400 million in bearish bets, helping propel it above $120,500, its highest level in 40 days. This wave of forced liquidations has added fuel to what traders call “Uptober”—a month that has historically produced outsized gains for crypto. Market capitalization for all digital assets surged past $4.2 trillion this week, the highest since mid-August.

Strategic Outlook on Bitcoin ETFs and BTC-USD

With spot Bitcoin ETFs pulling in more than $600 million in inflows over four sessions and IBIT crossing into the global top 20 ETF rankings, institutional adoption has never been more visible. Macro catalysts—rate cut odds, labor market softness, and fiscal pressures—are aligning with structural crypto-specific flows like reduced selling pressure and ETF-driven demand. With BTC-USD consolidating near $119,500–$120,000, the market is at a pivotal zone: clearing resistance at $122K opens a direct path to retest the August all-time high of $124,457 and potentially Citi’s target zone of $133,000–$181,000 into 2026.

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