Bitcoin Falls to $102K as ETF Inflows Drop to $1.2M — IBIT ETF and CPI Report Take Center Stage

Bitcoin ETF Inflows Stall at $1.2 Million as Market Awaits CPI and Shutdown Resolution

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) is under pressure again, slipping 3.12% to $102,905, as spot ETF inflows continue to fade despite the U.S. Senate’s progress toward ending the 41-day government shutdown. According to Farside Investors, Bitcoin ETFs attracted just $1.2 million in new inflows on November 10, a stark contrast to the $240 million recorded earlier this month. This cooling momentum comes as macro uncertainty, weak risk sentiment, and profit-taking weigh on the broader crypto market.

At the same time, Ethereum ETFs saw no inflows, while Solana ETFs extended their streak with $6.8 million in positive flows — signaling a rotation of capital toward higher-growth, high-volatility assets. The divergence underscores a changing investor appetite: institutional money remains in Bitcoin for stability, but opportunistic flows are chasing yield and innovation elsewhere.

IBIT ETF Performance: Modest Gains but Waning Momentum

The iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (NASDAQ:IBIT) — the largest Bitcoin ETF by market capitalization at $168.25 billion — closed 3.06% lower at $58.35 on November 11, before slipping slightly in after-hours trading to $58.19. The fund has a 52-week range between $42.98 and $71.82, reflecting strong volatility since launch.

IBIT remains the dominant player in the Bitcoin ETF ecosystem, with BlackRock’s fund alone accounting for $28.1 billion in year-to-date inflows, even as competitors such as Bitwise and Fidelity saw modest outflows. Despite the slowdown, IBIT continues to absorb market share from smaller issuers, supported by institutional-grade custody and tight spreads.

However, the sharp correction in BTC-USD from $126,000 to $100,000 in late October has cooled enthusiasm. Analysts at Capriole Investments noted that the absence of ETF demand “is not the dynamic we want to see continue,” especially during a period when risk assets usually recover strongly after fiscal disruptions like the U.S. shutdown.

Institutional Demand Weakens but Structural Support Persists

Institutional participation remains evident, though inflows have decelerated sharply. While Bitcoin ETFs registered a muted $1.2 million inflow, the Solana (SOL) ecosystem captured far more — a $6.78 million increase in a single day, marking its 10th consecutive day of net positive flows.

This shift suggests portfolio diversification among institutional allocators. Many are rotating exposure from core holdings like BTC and ETH into emerging layer-1 ecosystems like Solana, betting on higher upside once risk appetite returns. Still, Bitcoin’s dominance at 59.29% reinforces its role as the market’s liquidity anchor — a safe harbor during periods of macro and regulatory turbulence.

Meanwhile, on-chain signals remain favorable for BTC-USD. Data from Bitfinex shows that 72% of Bitcoin supply remains in profit, even after the drawdown to $100,000, suggesting holders are enduring short-term volatility rather than exiting positions. Exchange reserves continue to trend lower, implying reduced sell pressure and ongoing long-term accumulation.

Mid-Cycle Consolidation or Start of a Deeper Pullback?

Analysts at Bitfinex classify the current weakness as “mid-cycle consolidation” rather than the end of the bull phase. The structure mirrors corrections seen in June 2024 and February 2025, both of which led to renewed rallies. Each retracement has historically averaged 22% from cycle highs — roughly matching the current 20% drawdown from $126,000 to $100,000.

The $100,000–$105,000 range remains critical. It represents both psychological support and the lower end of Bitcoin’s short-term accumulation zone. The next key level for traders is $114,000–$126,000, where multiple technical resistances converge. A breakout above $126,000 could reignite institutional momentum, particularly if macro conditions improve post-CPI.

Macro Catalysts: CPI and Government Shutdown Endgame

The macro narrative now dominates Bitcoin’s next move. The U.S. CPI report on November 13 is the most anticipated data point of the month. If inflation shows further cooling, ETF inflows are likely to rebound sharply as investors price in lower Treasury yields and renewed risk appetite.

Conversely, a hot CPI print could deepen the pullback, delaying Bitcoin’s breakout above $110,000 and prompting further defensive rotation into cash or short-duration assets. The temporary resolution of the U.S. government shutdown has eased systemic anxiety but failed to generate ETF enthusiasm — a signal that markets are waiting for hard economic validation before committing capital.

ETF Flow Divergence Highlights Investor Rotation

The latest ETF flow data reveals a clear segmentation:

• Bitcoin ETFs: $1.2M inflows (down sharply from $240M earlier in November)

• Ethereum ETFs: $0 inflows

• Solana ETFs: $6.8M inflows (10-day streak, total $342M since launch)

These numbers emphasize that investors are reallocating, not retreating. Bitcoin ETFs still dominate in size, but Solana’s performance has been the standout, drawing inflows despite a 29% price drop in October. Institutional sentiment toward ETH appears neutral for now, reflecting uncertainty around layer-2 scaling and staking yield compression.

IBIT ETF and Market Liquidity Dynamics

IBIT’s liquidity remains robust, with tight spreads and record trading volume during the October rally, but turnover has slowed since the price fell below $110,000. The fund’s structure — holding Bitcoin directly in cold custody and reflecting intraday NAV adjustments — allows it to serve as a barometer for institutional confidence.

However, reduced activity this week highlights hesitation. The average daily volume in IBIT dropped 34% from its October peak, while total assets under management slipped 2.7% week-over-week. That said, the fund’s tracking precision and lack of derivatives exposure maintain its credibility as the benchmark for Bitcoin’s regulated exposure.

Technical Outlook for BTC-USD: Compression Before Expansion

Technically, BTC-USD remains range-bound between $100,000 and $110,000. Momentum indicators, including RSI (14) at 44.8 and MACD (12,26) turning negative, suggest short-term weakness, but not structural breakdown. The 200-day EMA around $96,800 remains the final line of defense.

A breakout above $114,000 could target $126,000, with a potential extension to $130,000 if ETF inflows exceed $20 million daily. Conversely, a close below $98,500 could trigger automated liquidations and a quick retest of $92,000. Traders should note that liquidity pockets remain concentrated near $104,500 and $108,300, where prior volume clusters formed.

Comparative ETF Analysis: Bitcoin vs. Solana vs. Ethereum

Comparatively, Bitcoin’s ETF performance now lags behind Solana’s in terms of momentum. While BTC ETFs barely attracted $1.2M, SOL ETFs drew nearly 6x that figure. Ethereum’s flat flows confirm a market temporarily disinterested in middle-ground assets.

However, Bitcoin’s stability and dominance above 59% still make it the core institutional asset. Solana’s outperformance in ETF flows is impressive but risky; its 10-day streak could end abruptly if volatility spikes. Bitcoin, through IBIT, remains the “institutional base layer” — low-yield, low-beta, but essential for portfolio credibility.

Final Take – BTC-USD and IBIT ETF Outlook

At $102,905, Bitcoin (BTC-USD) trades near the lower end of its current cycle range, showing resilience but lacking a catalyst. ETF inflows have slowed, yet not reversed — a sign of consolidation, not collapse. IBIT’s $168B market cap and $28B inflows YTD confirm that institutional conviction remains intact, even as short-term traders rotate elsewhere.

With CPI data approaching and the fiscal standoff nearly resolved, the next directional move will hinge on liquidity returning to ETF markets. If flows recover above $50 million per week, Bitcoin could quickly reclaim $114,000–$120,000. For now, the tone remains cautiously bullish, supported by strong structural demand but capped by macro hesitation.

Verdict: Hold – Neutral bias near $100,000 support; breakout likely if CPI cools and ETF inflows resume.

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