Bitcoin Stalls Below $105K as ETF Flows and Whale Demand Build Pressure for Breakout
Bitcoin (BTC-USD) currently trades at $104,749, down 0.97% intraday after failing to reclaim the 20-day EMA resistance at $105,300 during Thursday’s Asian and early European sessions. After peaking at $112,000 in May, BTC retraced toward $103,100, the 0.786 Fibonacci level from the April-to-May breakout. The broader structure has turned into a coiled bull flag, and despite near-term weakness, institutional demand, whale accumulation, and tightening supply continue to define the backdrop for a possible leg higher—potentially toward $125,000 by July.
1.1 Million BTC Accumulated by New Whales Signals Long-Term Accumulation
Since January 2025, new whales—wallets with 1,000+ BTC aged less than six months—have tripled their holdings, accumulating over 1.1 million BTC, now worth more than $115 billion. That figure is just under half of all BTC currently held on centralized exchanges, and it shows an explosive increase from ~300,000 BTC in October 2024.
This whale buildup outpaces what could be explained by retail or miners and strongly suggests that new institutional vehicles—particularly ETFs—are behind the movement. As these whales remove BTC from the liquid supply pool, sell pressure diminishes and volatility compresses—until the next macro catalyst ignites expansion.
ETF Inflows Surge to $44B+ as IBIT, FBTC Take the Lead
Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. have attracted more than $44 billion in net positive inflows over the past 12 months, helping to drain over 700,000 BTC from liquid supply. BlackRock’s IBIT now holds more than 660,000 BTC, while Fidelity’s FBTC sits at 200,000 BTC. Though Grayscale’s GBTC has unwound from 600,000 BTC to under 200,000, the overall trend in ETF holdings remains sharply upward.
These institutional vehicles are not just reshaping crypto access—they're absorbing BTC at a faster pace than new issuance post-halving, making them key structural drivers of price in Q2 and Q3 2025.
Bitcoin Exchange Balances Collapse from 3.1M to 2.4M BTC
According to on-chain analytics, Bitcoin balances on centralized exchanges dropped from 3.1 million BTC in August 2024 to under 2.4 million BTC as of June 2025. This trend accelerated in February following institutional inflows and renewed whale accumulation.
The drop in exchange reserves has removed over $70 billion worth of BTC from the immediate sell-side. In turn, this has tightened price ranges and fueled every leg higher—from $60,000 in August 2024 to the recent all-time high attempt at $112,000.
Macro Tailwinds Could Ignite $125K Rally—But All Eyes Are on Jobs Data
Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls report is the next trigger. Economists project 125,000 to 130,000 new jobs, down from 177,000 in April. A miss could trigger dovish commentary from the Fed and reignite Bitcoin’s upside—possibly lifting BTC past $112,000 resistance toward the $120,000–$125,000 range by early July, according to Bitfinex analysts.
But a beat could push the U.S. dollar higher, delay rate cuts, and pressure Bitcoin back toward key support at $103,100 or even $100,000.
Technical Map: Bull Flag Holding But Needs $106.4K Break for Continuation
The chart shows Bitcoin locked in a consolidation between $106,400 (Fib 50%) and $103,100 (Fib 78.6%). A breakout above $106,400 would validate the bull flag pattern formed since the April low at $100,700, aiming toward a retest of $112,000, followed by potential extension to $125,000.
Support remains strong at $100,000, while $96,559 (100-day EMA) and the $90,000–$92,000 range serve as macro support zones. These are critical if sentiment weakens post-jobs report.
Daily RSI prints near 50, 4H RSI sits at 44, and funding rates are flat—confirming a neutral to consolidating environment. But if bulls reclaim $106,400, a spike in open interest and momentum could follow.
Corporate Treasuries Now Hold 3.2% of Total Supply—But Carry Liquidation Risk
Sixty-one public companies now hold 673,897 BTC, with MicroStrategy (MSTR) leading the charge. These holdings represent 3.2% of total Bitcoin supply, according to Standard Chartered. However, most firms acquired BTC above $90,000, and a slide back toward $80,000 could trigger margin or accounting-driven sales.
While these corporate treasuries currently support bullish flows, they could become a volatility amplifier in a downside scenario.
Accumulation Trend Not Just ETF-Driven—Retail and OTC Desks Active Too
Data from CryptoQuant shows OTC desk withdrawals up 22% since March, pointing to institutional accumulation outside ETFs. Retail wallets holding 0.1 to 1 BTC are also growing, suggesting smaller investors are accumulating dips near $100,000.
The declining inflow to exchanges and parallel increase in self-custody reinforce the long-term bullish foundation, even if short-term volatility persists.
Whales Now Hold Half of Exchange BTC as Supply Shock Deepens
In August 2024, exchanges held 3.1 million BTC. That figure has since collapsed to 2.4 million, while whales and ETFs now hold 1.1 million combined. With fewer BTC left available to sell and halving rewards already reduced, price elasticity is increasing. As a result, even modest buy pressure could send Bitcoin well beyond $120,000.
Risk Levels Remain Elevated: Watch DXY, U.S. Yields, and ETF Outflows
If the U.S. dollar index (DXY) breaks above 106, or if 10Y yields surge above 4.5%, Bitcoin may come under pressure as capital rotates into risk-off assets. ETF inflows must remain stable—any negative weekly net flow from IBIT or FBTC could spook the market and initiate a breakdown toward $100,000.
Likewise, if NFP comes in hotter than expected, a short-term bearish scenario could unfold. Traders should monitor $103,100 closely—a breach there opens downside risk toward $96,559, and possibly even $92,000 if macro turns hostile.
