Bitcoin Trades Near $107K as Volatility Builds Around ETF Flows and Global Risk
BTC-USD is pressing back toward the $107,000 mark as buying pressure stabilizes above the $105,000 zone, with Monday's trading session delivering a clean rebound from a low of $104,519. The digital asset surged nearly 2% in the past 24 hours, pushing intraday highs to $107,251, while 24-hour trading volume jumped 18%, signaling growing risk appetite. Despite geopolitical friction between Israel and Iran and rising U.S. rate uncertainty, Bitcoin’s structural bid remains intact, underpinned by ETF demand and miner-driven supply constraints.
Volatility Signals Strengthen as Bitcoin Eyes $112K Breakout
Bitcoin's chart continues to flash signals consistent with major bullish trends. The formation of a bullish pin bar candle on Friday off a low of $103,000 set the tone for the bounce, with a narrow body and extended lower wick that historically precedes upward continuation. Meanwhile, Bollinger Bands are compressing, and the MACD histogram has turned positive—conditions that have preceded large BTC rallies in late 2020 and late 2024. The RSI remains neutral around 53, offering significant room for further upside without technical overextension.
Immediate resistance remains at $108,064, the center of a Fair Value Gap (FVG) that must be reclaimed for a sustainable push toward the May 22 all-time high at $111,980. A clean break above that level could set the stage for a larger move to $116,000 and potentially $120,000.
$1.9B in Weekly ETF Inflows Signal Institutional Conviction in BTC-USD
Demand from traditional finance continues to pour into Bitcoin. In the week ending June 13, crypto investment products saw $1.9 billion in net inflows, bringing year-to-date totals to $13.2 billion. Bitcoin alone attracted $1.3 billion, reversing two weeks of outflows, with BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin ETF accounting for $1.5 billion in inflows—reaffirming Wall Street’s growing allocation to BTC as a strategic asset.
Crypto ETP assets under management now exceed $179 billion, up from $175.9 billion the prior week. This marks the ninth consecutive week of net positive flows, showcasing unwavering institutional conviction even amid global uncertainty. Ethereum-based products added $583 million, XRP $11.8 million, while smaller tokens like Sui attracted $3.5 million.
Bitcoin Mining Shifts Reduce Sell Pressure as Treasury Hoarding Increases
On-chain fundamentals remain just as compelling. While network difficulty eased slightly from 126.9 trillion to 126.4 trillion, indicating a minor decline in hash competition, large-scale miners have pivoted sharply to treasury retention. MARA Holdings mined 950 BTC in May, up 35% month-over-month, and chose to sell none—raising its reserves to 49,179 BTC. Similarly, CleanSpark reported a 9% production increase, mining 694 BTC, all of which was held rather than liquidated.
These evolving corporate strategies—where miners act more like sovereign treasuries than extractors—are tightening circulating supply at a time when ETF demand is rapidly accelerating. The April 2024 halving, which cut rewards to 3.125 BTC, has made supply shocks structurally more sensitive to demand surges.
Geopolitical Chaos Fails to Derail Bitcoin, But Risk Remains
BTC-USD’s bounce amid conflict between Israel and Iran has been striking. Despite Thursday’s airstrikes, Sunday’s retaliatory missile launches, and headlines warning of escalation, Bitcoin remained firm, rallying off the $102,664 support and pushing higher Monday. Analysts argue that markets are pricing in a potential peace outcome—or at least discounting the risk of regional contagion.
Notably, gold prices, which surged to $3,450, have since pulled back, and even oil has failed to break the $100/barrel threshold. The market’s resilience in risk assets like Bitcoin implies confidence that the conflict may remain localized. However, any further deterioration could trigger a broader risk-off wave, potentially retesting BTC’s 50-day EMA near $102,943, or worse, the psychological $100,000 floor.
Cup-and-Handle Breakout Pattern Targets $168K If Resistance Levels Fall
The Bitcoin daily chart is carving out a cup-and-handle formation, a textbook bullish continuation pattern. The cup depth suggests a potential breakout target of $168,000, provided BTC can establish dominance above $110,000 and close above the May high of $111,980. The handle phase appears nearly complete, with higher lows forming above key support at $105,000.
Traders watching this setup are increasingly confident in a continuation move, supported by ETF inflows, miner hoarding, and favorable monetary conditions. If the breakout fails, however, the downside trigger remains the $108,064 FVG zone, with risk of rejection dragging prices back to the 50-day EMA or deeper to $100,000.
Metaplanet’s 1,112 BTC Purchase Cements Corporate Treasury Shift
Japan-based Metaplanet added 1,112 BTC on Monday, bringing its total holdings to 10,000 BTC. This mirrors moves by MicroStrategy (NASDAQ:MSTR) and builds on a global trend where public and private entities increasingly adopt Bitcoin as a balance sheet hedge. With over 95% of Bitcoin already mined, and fewer coins entering circulation daily post-halving, the scarcity thesis continues to strengthen.
Spot Bitcoin ETF data confirms the narrative. After $128.8 million in net outflows in the prior week, last week saw a rebound to $1.37 billion in inflows, according to Coinglass. The flows are happening even as broader markets wrestle with rate expectations and geopolitical risk, suggesting BTC is becoming more than just a speculative asset—it’s becoming policy-resistant infrastructure.
M2 Money Supply Surge Signals Bullish Macro Setup for BTC-USD
The correlation between Bitcoin and global M2 money supply has become increasingly important. Historically, BTC lags major M2 expansions by 12 weeks, and with global liquidity expanding again, the setup looks increasingly favorable. Analysts tracking this trend expect a fresh all-time high in Q3 or Q4, assuming the Federal Reserve either holds or cuts rates later this year.
The Federal Reserve's dot plot due Wednesday will offer critical direction. Market-implied probabilities for a cut are still muted, but if language softens and balance sheet expansion resumes, crypto assets like BTC-USD are primed to benefit disproportionately.
