Bitcoin Nears $120K Breakout: ETF Inflows, Whale Buys, and Policy Shifts Ignite Rally

BTC-USD Consolidates Near $118K: The Next Breakout May Redefine the Cycle

Key Resistance at $119,300–$120,000 Blocks Immediate Bitcoin Ascent

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) is trapped in a tight $117,000–$118,000 range, struggling to break the key inflection zone outlined by the Bitcoin Power Law model. According to Joao Wedson of Alphractal, this model—which captures Bitcoin's adoption-based price curve—flags the $118,900–$120,000 band as the next massive resistance cluster. The Alpha Price, defined at $119,300, must be breached and held for BTC to resume a full-blown bullish leg.

A move above that line doesn't just imply upside—it signals a confirmed trend reversal with upside extension toward $143,000–$146,000, which Wedson considers the top of this phase in the bull cycle. However, without breaking this cluster, Bitcoin could continue ranging or even trap over-leveraged longs.

Whale Wallets Signal Accumulation as Supply on Exchanges Plunges

Behind the scenes, whales are quietly rewriting the liquidity landscape. According to multiple chain analytics, Bitcoin exchange reserves have dropped from 3.25M to 2.55M BTC, removing 700,000 BTC from circulating float. That’s nearly 3.3% of total supply withdrawn—reflecting unprecedented conviction.

Large transactions (>$100K) are surging while exchange inflows are falling. Whale behavior here is not speculative—it’s accumulation. That same signature preceded the last two rallies toward $70K and $100K. Even a 15,000 BTC transfer to Coinbase today would represent a liquidity shock, possibly sparking a 5% price drawdown in under 3 hours.

ETF Inflows Hit $1B Per Day as Institutional Thesis Rebuilds

Bitcoin spot ETFs just recorded two consecutive $1B+ inflow days, led by BlackRock’s IBIT, which alone absorbed $953M Friday. Total ETF AUM has now passed $140B, reflecting a seismic shift toward institutional credibility.

This rush comes as Bank of America labeled Bitcoin the "best-performing currency of 2025" with an 18.2% YTD gain, eclipsing even the Swiss franc and euro. The U.S. dollar has fallen 10.1% YTD, creating favorable FX dynamics that reposition Bitcoin as a store of value.

With ETF traction rising and sovereign debt worries resurfacing, BTC is now being positioned as a long-hold asset for treasury diversification—changing the demand curve from speculative to strategic.

Cup and Handle Formation Targets $150K+ on Weekly Timeframe

Chart-wise, BTC-USD has completed one of the largest multi-cycle cup and handle formations ever observed:

• First cup: $25K–$30K → breakout to $70K

• Second cup: $50K–$70K → breakout to $100K

• Current setup: $60K–$110K → targeting $150K–$160K

Technical traders eye the 1.618 Fibonacci extension at $127,600 as the next milestone. If broken, the pattern implies open runway into pure price discovery mode. This is echoed by Polymarket, where 80% odds are priced in for $120K by month-end, and 92% by year-end.

RSI at 75+ Suggests Short-Term Froth But Not Reversal

Bitcoin’s RSI currently stands at 75.5, a level historically linked with strong rallies—but also short-term pullbacks. Unlike previous cycles, institutional flow is stabilizing price at high RSI, minimizing crash risk. Similar RSI prints in May and October 2021 preceded stair-step rallies.

As long as BTC holds the 70–73 RSI band without major divergence, trend continuation remains in play. A brief cool-down to the $111,000–$112,000 zone would serve as a reaccumulation base, not a bearish reversal.

U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Triggers New Narrative Shift

President Trump’s executive order establishing a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve marks the first time the U.S. federal government has officially classified Bitcoin as a sovereign asset class. This policy shift drove BTC past $112,000 instantly.

The plan to build a federal digital asset stockpile changes the regulatory tone. Paired with expanding ETF frameworks and corporate balance sheet entries, Bitcoin is now cemented in national economic strategy.

Analysts expect other G20 nations to mirror the move, especially those seeking alternatives to dollar reserves. With central bank gold buying near saturation, Bitcoin could fill the next decade’s hard-money vacuum.

Wave 5 in Elliott Cycle Points to Supercycle Extension

Elliott Wave analysts label the current leg as Wave 5 of a broader institutional supercycle. Unlike past cycles, this one is not halving-driven, but policy and balance-sheet driven.

The long-term wave structure implies price targets in the $160,000–$250,000 range before 2025 closes. Recent government and ETF events mark this wave as foundational—not speculative.

Sovereign players (as flagged in on-chain annotations) now align BTC with national debt strategy. Long-hold mandates, not trading algorithms, are fueling this trend.

BTC Hyper, Remittix Fuel DeFi Interest as On-Chain Activity Expands

Beyond price, Layer-2s like BTC Hyper are drawing interest. Built on Solana’s VM, it allows BTC holders to bridge into DeFi without friction. Their presale raised $2.5M+, and early stakers are earning high APYs ahead of Q3/Q4 launch.

Remittix (RTX) is also attracting alt-season spillover interest. With $16M+ raised and functionality across BTC, ETH, SOL, and DOGE, it's being positioned as a top “PayFi” breakout. While not yet large enough to sway BTC price, it reflects renewed retail confidence.

Price Zones to Watch: $120K, $124.6K, $127.6K, $143K, $150K

Short-term:

• $119,300–$120,000 = breakout trigger (Alpha Price resistance)

• $121,300 = minor resistance

• $124,600 and $127,600 = Fibonacci targets

Medium-term:

• $143,000–$146,000 = next rally cap (per Power Law)

• $150,000 = ETF + institutional euphoria zone

• $160,000–$250,000 = Elliott Wave target band

Support remains firm at $111,000, with emergency support around $106,500.

BTC-USD Verdict: STRONG BUY

With whale accumulation, ETF inflows, sovereign strategy, and cup-and-handle confirmation, the macro and technical backdrop for BTC-USD is the most bullish since 2020.

Verdict: STRONG BUY on any dip into $111K–$114K. Breakout above $120K confirms liftoff toward $143K–$150K, with possibility of long-term supercycle extension to $250K.

Do not underestimate the institutional nature of this rally. This is not a meme pump. This is capital rotation at sovereign scale.

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