Bitcoin Price Breaks Above $115,000 While Equity Markets Extend Rally

Global Risk Appetite Bolsters Crypto and Equities

On Wednesday, U.S. equity benchmarks extended their ascent— the S&P 500 rose to 6,341.93 (+0.68 %), the Nasdaq Composite climbed to 21,121.30 (+0.98 %), and the Dow Jones Industrial Average reached 44,222.05 (+0.25 %). Bitcoin mirrored this risk-on tone, rallying from $113,250 to $115,138 (a +1.7 % gain) as of today’s close. Despite these firmer prices, underlying metrics signal a precarious juncture for BTC, where clustered cost bases, stretched leverage, and institutional flows could easily trigger a reversal.

On-Chain Congestion Around $105 K

Blockchain data from CryptoQuant highlights a dense band of realized cost basis between $105,000 and $106,000. UTXOs peaked sharply at $105,644, while coins held for one to three months carry an average cost of $106,000. Traders with positions under 155 days stand at a break-even cost of $105,350. If Bitcoin drifts back toward this range, over-leveraged holders face the real threat of capitulation, potentially igniting a cascade of liquidations that could push BTC toward the $105,000 “trap” zone.

Derivatives Overhang and Sentiment Extremes

Open interest in Bitcoin futures remains elevated at $79 billion (Hyblock Capital), amplifying the market’s sensitivity to headline-driven moves. Meanwhile, the Fear & Greed Index languishes in “Extreme Greed,” a contrarian warning often preceding pullbacks. The swift decline from $120,000 down to $112,000 in recent weeks exemplifies how crowded derivatives positioning can accelerate sell-offs once sentiment pivots.

ETF Flow Bifurcation: Bitcoin Exodus vs. Ethereum Inflows

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs suffered a fourth straight day of redemptions on August 5, with net outflows of $196 million. Fidelity’s FBTC led with $100 million withdrawn, BlackRock’s IBIT saw $77.4 million exit, and Grayscale’s GBTC ceded $19.7 million—bringing weekly redemptions to $643 million. By contrast, Ethereum-linked ETFs garnered $73.2 million of inflows, powered by BlackRock’s ETHA (+$78 million), VanEck’s ETHV (+$5.24 million), and 21Shares’ CETH (+$3.57 million). This clear rotation underscores waning institutional appetite for Bitcoin’s near-term risk profile amid softer economic data and tariff uncertainty.

Whale Transfers and Miner Tax Relief Prospects

On-chain records show dormant “whale” addresses moving roughly 3,000 BTC in early August, a behavior historically correlated with profit-taking at local tops. Simultaneously, a White House policy recommendation to tax mining rewards only upon sale—rather than at the point of receipt—could materially improve miner cash flow by deferring tax liabilities. If enacted, this measure would align taxable events with real-world revenue, potentially attracting fresh capital into hash-rate expansion and bolstering network security.

Technical Battleground: From $112 K Floor to $118 K Ceiling

Bitcoin’s immediate support sits at $112,641, coinciding with the 50-period EMA on the two-hour chart. A secondary floor emerges near $110,782 and the inverse-head-and-shoulders neckline at $109,000, just above the 20-week EMA of $105,844. On the upside, BTC has stalled at $115,043 twice in the past 48 hours; a sustained breakout beyond this hurdle could open the path to $116,915 and $118,878, where prior supply congregates. RSI hovering around 51 indicates neutral momentum—further underscoring the need for decisive price action to confirm either bulls or bears.

Macro Crosswinds: Yields, Commodities, and Volatility

While equities and Bitcoin found footing, U.S. 10-year Treasury yields ticked up to 4.242 percent, ahead of a $42 billion note auction. Brent crude advanced to $67.86 (+1.2 %) even as gold held near $1,800, and the VIX dipped to 16.93 (-5.15 %), reflecting diminishing volatility premiums. Taken together, these cross-asset signals reinforce a fragile equilibrium where any shock to economic data or trade policy could rapidly tighten risk conditions.

Strategic Posture: Cautious Neutral

Given the confluence of concentrated on-chain cost bases at $105K–$106K, record futures open interest, continuous ETF outflows, and whale profit-taking, the risk of a sharp drawdown remains elevated. A neutral stance is advised until Bitcoin either:

• Reclaims and sustains above $115,043, confirming a bullish breakout with a retest holding as support, or

• Slips below $109,000, testing the inverse-head-and-shoulders neckline and 20-week EMA for decisive buy-side defense.

Traders should manage exposure with disciplined stops—long positions protected below $113,800 and shorts contemplated only under $109,000—while awaiting clearer directional resolution.

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