Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC at $114,000 Faces ETF Outflows and Powell Risk

Bitcoin ETF Inflows and Outflows: Institutional Positioning and Market Stress Signals

BTC-USD Price Struggles Against ETF Flow Volatility

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) is holding just above $114,000, but its footing is increasingly fragile as exchange-traded fund flows send conflicting signals. Over the past month, Bitcoin ETFs logged $6.02 billion in net inflows in July, only to reverse sharply in August with $139.5 million in outflows to date. Daily swings have been violent: on August 19, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs shed $523.3 million, a third consecutive day of redemptions, dragging month-to-date totals into negative territory. Fidelity’s FBTC alone recorded $246.9 million in a single day of outflows, while Ark’s ARKB saw smaller but consistent redemptions. BlackRock’s IBIT, by contrast, has remained resilient, attracting $12.45 billion in Q2—96.8% of the quarter’s industry-wide inflows—and still trading with steady secondary market demand. The divergence between IBIT and legacy funds like Grayscale’s GBTC underscores a concentration of institutional confidence in only a handful of products.

Ethereum ETFs Overtake Bitcoin, Then Reverse

A defining feature of 2025 has been the rotation between Ethereum and Bitcoin ETFs. In the week ending August 15, U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs captured an astonishing $2.85 billion in inflows, nearly double Bitcoin’s $548 million. That momentum propelled ETH above $4,000, narrowing the gap with its all-time high. Yet within days, the picture flipped: between August 18–19, ETH ETFs suffered $422.2 million in outflows in a single day, alongside Bitcoin’s $523.3 million bleed. BlackRock’s iShares Ethereum Trust sold 19,500 ETH (~$87 million), Fidelity’s ETH fund dumped 36,250 ETH (~$156 million), and its Bitcoin fund simultaneously redeemed 2,180 BTC (~$247 million). This synchronized pullback suggests portfolio-wide derisking ahead of Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech, where expectations of “higher for longer” rates have driven risk aversion.

Concentration of Flows in Institutional Hands

The Q2 filings of hedge funds and banks show the scale of Wall Street’s hold over crypto ETFs. Goldman Sachs now manages over $2.7 billion in combined BTC and ETH ETF exposure, with ETH allocations in BlackRock’s ETHA surging 283% in one quarter to nearly $474 million. Brevan Howard, a macro fund heavyweight, lifted its IBIT stake to $2.3 billion, adding 15.9 million shares in Q2 while layering in put options for hedging. Jane Street increased its IBIT position by 268%, bringing its stake to $1.47 billion, while also boosting exposure to ARKB ($409 million) and ETHA (>$130 million). Susquehanna International built a $1.5 billion book across IBIT, FBTC, and ETH funds, while aggressively trading options with notional exposure exceeding $3 billion. Even Asia’s Avenir Group crossed the $1 billion IBIT threshold, while sovereign investor Mubadala sat on an unchanged $534 million IBIT stake. The data shows institutional dominance: $15.8 billion in combined holdings across 12 institutions, with BlackRock’s ETFs alone capturing nearly all fresh inflows.

Technical Weakness Despite Historic ETF Participation

Despite ETF allocations reaching unprecedented size—U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs now control $146.2 billion, equal to 6.47% of BTC’s market cap—price action remains soft. BTC has repeatedly failed to reclaim $117,500 resistance, with the 50-day SMA at $116,033 acting as a ceiling. On August 20, BTC traded at $113,464, down 1.9% in 24 hours, with volume shrinking to $10.8 billion, reinforcing the bearish tilt. Analysts highlight key supports at $111,982 and $110,053, with a potential liquidity wall at $105,000 where “plunge protection” bids are suspected. The RSI and MACD remain negative, suggesting further downside unless flows stabilize.

Market Rotation: BTC Lagging Behind ETH

Comparative ETF flows reveal Bitcoin losing ground to Ethereum in institutional preference. Crypto strategists have pointed to ETH daily volumes of $15–20 billion with inflows to match, versus BTC’s $30–40 billion volumes but with net outflows. ETH’s momentum has already carried it to $4,345 (+5.3% daily), while BTC gained just 1.1%. On-chain signals back the story: ETH transaction counts, gas fees, and DeFi lock-ups remain strong, reinforcing the ETF inflow pattern. The ETH/BTC ratio is climbing, pointing to potential further relative outperformance of ETH in institutional portfolios if the flows sustain.

Insider Positioning and Risk Management

The ETF filings also reveal insider-level conviction through option overlays. Goldman Sachs paired its $1.25 billion IBIT equity stake with a nearly equal notional in calls and puts. Jane Street expanded its IBIT options book to $1.78 billion, larger than its spot holdings, highlighting how market makers monetize volatility while still long the base product. Susquehanna, meanwhile, layered $1.56 billion in IBIT calls and $750 million in puts, essentially straddling Powell’s Jackson Hole outcome. Such strategies underline that while institutions are deeply invested, they are also hedging aggressively against drawdowns, a warning sign for retail investors assuming ETF inflows are purely bullish.

Macro Overhang: Powell, Rates, and Liquidity

Federal Reserve policy remains the elephant in the room. The market is bracing for Powell’s Jackson Hole address, with fears that a hawkish stance will drain liquidity from speculative assets. Bitcoin’s August weakness, after a record July, mirrors equity markets where the Nasdaq and S&P 500 stalled under interest rate pressure. Institutional ETFs are not immune: the $1 billion combined outflow on Aug 18–19 coincided precisely with bond market repricing of rate cuts. The message is clear—crypto ETFs are now tied to Wall Street liquidity cycles, not just on-chain activity.

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