Bitcoin Price Forecast - BTC-USD Holds $109K as Traders Weigh $107K Support and $131K Resistance

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) Caught Between Cycle Fatigue and Institutional Strength

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) is trading at $109,426, up a marginal 0.05%, after a volatile September that saw the cryptocurrency rejected from highs near $117,968 and dragged down toward $108,676. The market cap stands at $2.17 trillion, with 24-hour turnover of $40.4 billion. Price action reflects hesitation: while the halving cycle signals potential exhaustion, institutional inflows and fiat money expansion continue to support the long-term bullish case.

The Halving Cycle’s Shadow Over Q4 2025

Bitcoin has historically adhered to a four-year halving cycle, where supply reductions drive multi-year rallies before topping out around three years later. Following the April 2024 halving, which cut BTC’s inflation rate to below 1% annually (less than half of gold’s), analysts flagged late 2025 as a probable peak window. The loss of upside momentum in Q3, after July’s spike above $120,000, has reinforced those warnings.

Still, this cycle may be evolving. Bitcoin is no longer a purely retail-driven market. With spot Bitcoin ETFs attracting nearly $60 billion in inflows and corporate treasuries adding BTC to balance sheets, the structural bid has grown too strong to ignore. This institutional demand blunts the reliability of past cycle models and explains why even with long-term holder supply dropping from 70% of circulating BTC to 61% (a release of about 1.8 million BTC), the market has not unraveled.

Macroeconomic Forces and Monetary Expansion

The global liquidity backdrop is shaping sentiment. Central banks slowed their rate-cutting cycle in Q3, but monetary supply remains stimulative. Global M2 growth has re-accelerated to 6% year-over-year, compared with just 1% in early 2024. That expansion plays directly into Bitcoin’s positioning as “hard money,” sustaining demand even as technicals cool.

On the policy side, a shift toward renewed inflation concerns would hurt crypto. Yet if Donald Trump installs a dovish Fed chair after Jerome Powell, aggressive rate cuts could send BTC soaring. Galaxy Digital’s Mike Novogratz argued this scenario could plausibly push Bitcoin toward $200,000, though at the cost of U.S. monetary credibility.

Bitcoin Price Prediction and Technicals: Support and Resistance Levels Under Pressure

Bitcoin’s price structure reflects consolidation within a descending channel that began after the August top. The cryptocurrency now trades between its 100-day moving average at $113,400 and the 200-day at $104,000, a no-man’s land that often resolves in decisive breakouts.

• Immediate support sits at $109,200–$109,000, where bulls are defending.

• A break lower exposes $107,270, a liquidity pocket tied to December and January swing lows.

• The critical long-term floor lies near $102,000, aligned with the 200-day moving average and channel base.

Resistance layers:

• $110,500–$113,000: First barrier to reclaim short-term bullishness.

• $117,000–$123,000: A decisive band that must be broken to retest all-time highs above $120K.

Momentum indicators echo the cautious stance. RSI sits at 38, signaling weakening strength. The Commodity Channel Index is at -144, highlighting oversold pressure, but MACD remains negative at -773, confirming bearish momentum.

Liquidity and Sentiment Dynamics

The selloff from August’s highs was fueled by liquidations. Over $1.5 billion in leveraged longs were wiped out, particularly around the $117,000 rejection zone. Heatmaps now show heavy clusters of past liquidations above that level, forming a ceiling where supply dominates. In contrast, few clusters remain below current prices, implying sellers may soon run out of near-term firepower unless new flows emerge.

Coinbase (COIN) volumes remain subdued, underlining weak retail activity. Yet institutional flows tell a different story: ETF inflows remain strong, and long-term adoption trends continue. The divergence between lackluster retail and robust institutional demand is keeping volatility compressed around the $109,000–$110,000 range.

Ethereum (ETH-USD) and XRP (XRP-USD) Show Relative Strength

While Bitcoin consolidates, Ethereum (ETH-USD) has climbed back to $4,013, up 1.56% in 24 hours, reinforcing its leadership in Layer-1 innovation. XRP (XRP-USD) trades at $2.78, supported by a breakthrough ruling in Bahrain granting Sharia compliance, potentially opening access to the $2 trillion Islamic finance market. These developments highlight how other top-tier cryptocurrencies are carving their own bullish narratives, even as BTC tests its cycle boundaries.

Bitcoin’s Strategic Outlook Into Year-End

Bitcoin’s fate in Q4 hinges on whether it can hold the $107,000–$109,000 demand base. A sustained defense opens the door for rebounds toward $113,000–$117,000, and eventually $123,000 if momentum rebuilds. A breakdown below $107,000 would quickly target $102,000, flipping the medium-term bias bearish.

With ETF inflows, M2 expansion, and institutional demand anchoring the floor, Bitcoin’s structure remains intact — but momentum has shifted from aggressive bull to defensive consolidation.

Verdict: BTC-USD is a Hold. Buyers should monitor $117,000 for confirmation of bullish continuation, while failure to hold $107,000 risks a decisive shift toward bearish control.

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