Bitcoin Price Forecast - BTC-USD $114,600 Support Tested As Fed Easing And ETF Inflows Ignite Bullish Momentum

Bitcoin Price Forecast: Institutional Flows, Fed Easing, And The $120K Breakout Battle

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) is trading near $114,600, up roughly 0.6% on October 28, 2025, following one of its most volatile months in years. After plunging to around $104,000 during the tariff panic of mid-October, the leading cryptocurrency has clawed back more than $10,000, aided by massive ETF inflows, easing trade tensions between the U.S. and China, and expectations of a 0.25% Federal Reserve rate cut this week. The rebound underscores Bitcoin’s transformation into a macro-sensitive asset increasingly tied to institutional behavior, liquidity cycles, and geopolitical headlines. The rally back above $114K marks a psychological recovery point, as that price area represented the average cost basis for many late buyers who entered during the early-October run to $125,000. Holding above that pivot suggests stronger hands have replaced the leverage washout from the $19 billion liquidation wave that hit during the tariff shock. Momentum now centers around the $116K resistance zone, which aligns with the 100-day moving average, while the $109K–$110K region remains the crucial bullish defense line supported by the 200-day MA. A decisive daily close above $116K could unleash an advance toward $120K–$122K, whereas a breakdown under $109K risks exposing the $105K CME futures gap and possibly the deeper $100K–$102K liquidity pocket.

Macro conditions are once again tilting in Bitcoin’s favor. The Fed’s expected rate cut would mark its second of 2025 and take policy rates into the 3.75–4% range. With inflation easing near 3% and the U.S. Dollar Index slipping below 99, the setup mimics past risk-on phases that propelled BTC to new highs. A softer dollar historically enhances Bitcoin’s role as a hedge against fiat debasement—particularly as global M2 money supply has re-accelerated around 6% year-over-year after a flat first half of the year. The so-called “hard money trade” remains intact: gold recently retreated to $3,980 per ounce, and capital rotation from precious metals into crypto has intensified, with Bitcoin-to-gold ratios climbing back to pre-tariff levels. Institutional demand continues to anchor price stability. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have attracted roughly $3.5 billion in new inflows this month alone, pushing total institutional holdings to about 12% of total BTC supply, the highest in history. Standard Chartered analysts estimate that if ETF inflows sustain even half their October pace, Bitcoin could reclaim its $125K high within weeks and potentially reach $200K by late 2025. Meanwhile, Citigroup maintains a more conservative $130K year-end target, citing volatility compression that often precedes explosive upside phases. Supporting that view, Bitcoin’s six-month volatility index has dropped to record lows—levels that in past cycles preceded rallies of 60–70% within 100 days. Technical indicators mirror that tightening coil. The weekly Bollinger Band width has fallen to its lowest ever, while RSI readings around 55 show room to run before overbought conditions emerge. Bitcoin has held the 50-week EMA near $100K through multiple pullbacks since early 2024, reinforcing that zone as structural support. Analysts tracking Fibonacci extensions from the Q1 drawdown highlight potential upside targets at $119K (127.2%) and $131K (161.8%), contingent on sustained closes above $116K.
On-chain dynamics further confirm a maturing market. Long-term holders—those owning BTC for over a year—still control roughly 61% of supply, down from the 70% peak at the start of 2024. That nine-point drop represents nearly 1.8 million BTC re-entering circulation, enough to fuel recent liquidity but not yet enough to signal mass distribution. Exchange reserves continue to decline, while ETF and custody wallets expand, showing that coins are migrating from retail venues to institutional cold storage. The MVRV Z-score sits near 2.0, far from the overheated 7.0+ levels typical of past cycle tops, implying that Bitcoin remains well below speculative extremes. This combination—tight volatility, modest valuation metrics, and renewed inflows—creates the conditions for a potential breakout rather than a blow-off top.

The macro-political layer is equally significant. Optimism around a Trump–Xi trade agreement scheduled for announcement later this week has revived appetite for risk assets worldwide. The expected deal includes a rollback of the proposed 100% tariffs in exchange for long-term Chinese purchases of U.S. soybeans and rare-earth concessions. Equities have surged to record highs on the news, and Bitcoin has followed in lockstep, breaking its earlier decoupling pattern and behaving increasingly like a high-beta proxy for global liquidity. If the meeting delivers concrete progress and the Fed reinforces its dovish tone, it could ignite a short-term breakout above $117K–$118K, effectively nullifying the bearish CME gap thesis.

Still, not all signals are one-sided. Futures data reveal smaller average order sizes and a pullback in whale activity since the mid-month rebound, indicating that retail traders are driving much of the current volume. This tends to precede consolidation phases rather than immediate continuation. Funding rates on perpetual futures remain slightly positive but not excessive, suggesting mild bullish bias without extreme leverage. Options markets show traders paying higher premiums for upside calls around $120K–$125K, reflecting expectations for a rally but also positioning risk if momentum fades. The Fear & Greed Index has recovered to 55 (neutral) from 24 (extreme fear) earlier this month, underscoring cautious optimism rather than euphoria.

Beyond short-term price levels, Bitcoin’s long-term thesis remains underpinned by its hard-supply mechanics. The 2024 halving reduced new issuance below 1% annually, less than gold’s inflation rate, ensuring continued scarcity. Yet this cycle differs from previous ones: the dominance of ETFs and corporate treasuries has diluted the influence of retail speculation. Analysts argue that the traditional four-year boom-bust pattern is fading as institutional participation smooths volatility. Historically, after each halving, Bitcoin rallied for 12–18 months before peaking. Now, with macro liquidity still abundant and no clear retail mania yet visible, the current cycle may extend further than those before it.
In parallel, global regulatory clarity is accelerating adoption. The U.S. Congress has advanced bills defining digital assets and stablecoin frameworks, while the EU’s MiCA regime provides legal certainty for exchanges and issuers. This environment has emboldened large financial players: Bank of America, Citigroup, and TP ICAP are expanding crypto services, while several sovereign funds have disclosed small Bitcoin allocations. France even proposed purchasing 2% of global BTC supply as a national reserve asset, a move that underscores how deeply Bitcoin has penetrated mainstream policy debates.

Technically and fundamentally, Bitcoin now sits at a pivotal equilibrium. Price consolidation between $109K and $116K represents an energy build-up that rarely lasts long. Each historical compression of this magnitude led to a directional surge averaging 65% within three months. If the upcoming catalysts—Fed easing, trade truce confirmation, and renewed ETF inflows—align, the breakout target lies around $130K–$135K by early 2026. Conversely, failure to hold above $109K would reopen the path toward $100K, where the 50-week EMA and massive ETF buy zones converge. Given the data, probability skews toward continuation rather than collapse: structural demand, monetary tailwinds, and subdued leverage favor higher prices.
Verdict: The balance of evidence supports a Bullish / Buy bias on BTC-USD. As long as Bitcoin maintains weekly closes above $109K, the uptrend remains intact with potential for a retest of the $125K all-time high and extension toward $130K+. Volatility compression, record institutional inflows, dovish monetary policy, and improving macro sentiment together form one of the strongest bullish setups since 2021. While near-term pullbacks are possible, the prevailing trajectory points to higher highs as Bitcoin cements its position as the premier digital macro asset heading into 2026.

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