Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC-USD Near $68K Between $80K Squeeze and $50K Risk

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) rebounds toward $68,000 but stays locked in a 60k–72k trap

Relief rally size, drawdown from the $126,080 peak and position in the current range

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) is trading around $68,000–68,500 after one of its strongest upside sessions in months. Price ripped from roughly $64,074 to intraday highs near $69,192, a 6–8% daily move, the second-strongest session since May 2025. Despite that surge, BTC remains stuck in the $60,000–$72,000 consolidation band and is still about 46–50% below the October all-time high around $126,080. This is a recovery inside a sideways structure, not a confirmed trend change. The broader market followed: total crypto capitalization jumped around 4–6% to roughly $2.42 trillion, Ether (ETH-USD) advanced 8–12% toward $2,050, while XRP and Solana (SOL-USD) added roughly 8–13% in 24 hours, confirming a genuine risk-on impulse across digital assets rather than an isolated BTC squeeze.

Trump speech, short squeeze and miner cost as drivers of the latest Bitcoin spike

The rally was powered by several concrete catalysts. Trump’s State of the Union address highlighted cooling inflation and sub-$3 national gasoline prices while pushing a “drill more” energy stance, which supported a bounce in the Nasdaq and S&P 500 and lifted high-beta assets, including BTC. On derivatives, roughly $323 million in short positions were liquidated as price broke higher, with 24-hour trading volume near $50.58 billion, creating a feedback loop of forced buying. At the same time, BTC slipped below an estimated average miner production cost around $66,000 for the first time since late 2022, a zone that historically aligns with late-stage selling and value-driven accumulation rather than the start of a new bear leg. That confluence—macro boost, short squeeze and miner-cost support—explains the violence of the move back toward $68,000–$69,000.

Lawsuit over the “10 AM smash” pattern and cleaner upside tape

An additional component was the exposure of a recurring “10 AM smash” pattern described in a lawsuit against Gain Street, alleging repeated aggressive selling during North American mornings that had been artificially capping BTC’s upside. Around the time that alleged behavior surfaced publicly, the pattern disappeared and the order book behaved more cleanly, particularly on breakouts through the mid-$60,000s. The removal of that recurring pressure did not create demand on its own, but it removed a persistent liquidity headwind that had been leaning against any attempt to rally off the $60,000–$63,000 zone.

ETF flows flip from heavy redemptions to $750m+ inflows in 48 hours

For medium-term structure, the crucial shift is in spot Bitcoin ETF flows. After weeks of steady outflows that reduced ETF assets from about $117 billion to roughly $81.3 billion—a 30.5% contraction—flows turned strongly positive. One session saw about $257–258 million of net inflows, followed by roughly $506–507 million the next day, for a combined $765 million over 48 hours. In that same window, the largest U.S. spot product alone absorbed around $297 million in one day, while Ethereum spot ETFs collected around $157 million, with a leading ETH vehicle attracting about $62 million. This is regulated capital re-entering BTC in size near $65,000–$68,000, not retail leverage gambling at the top. A separate grading model assigns BTC-USD a composite around 58.7 (a C+ profile) with a one-month central value near $54,426.81 and a 12-month reference around $98,201.37, which is exactly the shape these flows describe: near-term downside risk with long-term upside still open as long as structural demand survives.

Why ETF inflows matter more than short-term speculative positioning

These ETF flows have a dual role. First, they are direct buying pressure: hundreds of millions of dollars in a day push spot markets higher and absorb sell orders coming from miners, derivatives hedging and legacy holders taking profit. Second, they serve as a live confidence gauge for large, regulated pools of capital. The earlier 30.5% drawdown in ETF AUM signaled that a large chunk of money had already left BTC. The latest $765 million two-day inflow tells you that some of that capital is willing to re-engage when BTC trades in the mid-$60,000s rather than near $120,000+. If daily net inflows hold in the $400–500 million range or better, any probe below $60,000 will meet strong demand. If flows slip back to choppy or negative, the prior AUM slide resumes and BTC has to work off supply with far less structural support.

Four-hour chart: EMAs, RSI and MACD show a controlled recovery, not a blow-off

On the 4-hour chart, BTC-USD is hovering around $68,500, sitting above the 50-period EMA near $66,900 and repeatedly testing the 100-period EMA around the current spot area. Holding above the 50-EMA keeps the near-term bias mildly positive. A clean break and hold above the 100-EMA would mark the first step from “relief bounce” toward a short-term uptrend. The RSI on this timeframe is around 60, reflecting positive momentum without overbought exhaustion, and the MACD line is above the signal and zero line with a positive histogram, showing firm but not extreme buying pressure after the recovery from the mid-$63,000s.

Weekly and daily levels: 200-week EMA at $68k, 20-day EMA at $69.2k and 50-day near $76k

On higher timeframes, the technical map is clear. The 200-week EMA and a major long-term trend support zone sit close to $68,000, exactly where BTC is trying to stabilize. The 20-day EMA clusters around $69,200; reclaiming and holding above that band unlocks a path back into the upper half of the range. The 50-day EMA and the April 2025 low area converge near $76,000, which is the real pivot for the medium-term bear thesis. Below $76,000, every rally can still be faded as part of a broader corrective phase; above $76,000, that corrective structure starts to lose credibility.

Range structure and the 2 billion dollar liquidity wall between 72k and 75k

The lateral structure has not changed: $60,000–$62,000 forms the lower boundary and $70,000–$72,000 the upper boundary of the current trading box. Order-book and derivatives data point to roughly $2 billion in ask liquidity stacked between $72,450 and $75,000, with a larger liquidation cluster in the $80,000 area. The constructive upside path is straightforward: hold $68,000, break $69,200–$70,000, absorb the offers between $72,000 and $75,000, and force a short squeeze that can push BTC-USD into the $80,000 pocket. Failure to hold the mid-$60,000s, followed by a daily close beneath $62,000–$60,000, flips the range into a distribution zone that points down rather than up.

On-chain stress: more than half of supply underwater and realized price tests

On-chain diagnostics support the view that the market is in a late bearish phase but not obviously past the low. More than 50% of circulating BTC is currently underwater, a brutal reversal from October, when near 100% of supply was in profit around $126,000. BTC has also traded close to its realized price and the 200-week moving average, historically important levels that frequently coincide with deep value areas and the early stages of accumulation. Those signals justify why ETF buyers and long-horizon capital are nibbling in the $60,000–$68,000 zone rather than waiting for a complete capitulation first.

Fear, ETF AUM slide and the missing discretionary bid

At the same time, sentiment and allocation data highlight structural fragility. A Fear & Greed Index stuck in “extreme fear” combined with a 30.5% decline in spot ETF AUM from $117 billion to $81.3 billion tells you that a large amount of capital is already out. Several institutional frameworks now treat BTC as an asset that must compete directly with AI equities and commodities for allocation. That competition explains why even a test of the lower $60,000–$63,000 range did not produce a lasting V-shaped recovery: the aggressive discretionary bid that dominated previous cycles has partly rotated into other themes.

Key level grid from 76k invalidation down to an extreme 40k base case

The level grid around the current tape lays out the risk ladder clearly. At the top, $76,000 is the invalidation line for the medium-term bearish bias, overlapping the 50-day EMA and a major prior low. Inside the present range, $72,000 marks the consolidation ceiling and $70,000 is the psychological and options strike battleground. In the middle, $68,000–$68,500 is both spot price and the 200-week EMA neighborhood. The lower boundary sits at $60,000–$62,000, where on-chain data shows accumulation attempts. Beneath that, $54,000 is the October 2024 correction low, and $50,000–$52,000 is the primary bearish target area, roughly 30% below current levels. In a more extreme washout, some longer-term frameworks point to $40,000 as the zone where a genuinely constructive, multi-year base could emerge.

Nvidia, AI risk, S&P 500 correlation and Bitcoin’s current macro behavior

Macro and equity flows are heavily shaping BTC’s behavior. Nvidia (NVDA) just printed a quarter with revenue near $68.1 billion, up approximately 73% year-on-year, with around $62.3 billion of that coming from its data-center segment. Guidance around $78 billion for the following quarter beat consensus near $72–73 billion, reaffirming the strength of the AI infrastructure cycle. Those numbers helped lift the S&P 500 and tech benchmarks to a one-week high before today’s pullback. BTC moved as part of that risk complex: when AI bellwethers reassured markets and U.S. indices bounced, BTC tracked the rebound. At the same time, gold futures holding above $5,100 per ounce even during equity rallies show that some capital still prefers traditional havens when geopolitics deteriorate. Right now BTC-USD is behaving as a macro-sensitive high-beta asset, reacting to AI earnings, ETF flows, policy expectations and geopolitical risk, not as a pure isolated “digital gold” hedge.

US–Iran talks, gold above $5,100 and how geopolitical risk splits flow between XAU and BTC

The third round of U.S.–Iran nuclear talks in Geneva is another key driver of cross-asset positioning. With U.S. forces concentrated in the region and Trump making clear he will not tolerate a nuclear-armed Iran, headlines around these talks can rapidly change risk appetite. If negotiations fail and direct confrontation risk rises, flows will likely favor gold (XAU) more reliably than BTC, reinforcing the metal’s move above $5,100–$5,200 and pressuring high-beta assets. If talks deliver a credible de-escalation, equity indices, high-beta tech and BTC all stand to benefit together, especially with ETF inflows already reappearing. BTC currently sits in the middle of that tug-of-war: part risk asset, part macro hedge, but not dominant in either role.

Three main BTC-USD paths: 80k squeeze, 50k range breakdown or deep reset to 40k

From here, three scenarios dominate. In the constructive path, BTC-USD holds above $68,000, reclaims $69,200–$70,000, then grinds through $72,000–$75,000, triggering a short squeeze into the $80,000 liquidity cluster. That track requires sustained ETF inflows in the $400–500+ million/day band, U.S. indices staying near highs and no major deterioration in U.S.–Iran risk. In the neutral-to-bearish base case, BTC continues to oscillate between $60,000 and $72,000, ETF flows alternate between modest inflows and outflows, and volatility slowly compresses until a fresh macro shock forces a break. In that environment, repeated tests of the lower band eventually open the way to $54,000, then $50,000–$52,000. The deep reset scenario accepts that discretionary capital has structurally rotated toward AI and commodities. Under that framework, a decisive break below $60,000 drives BTC quickly toward $50,000 and potentially $40,000, finally aligning price, positioning and sentiment with a classical cycle low.

Risk-reward at $68k: Hold rating with bearish tactical bias and long-term upside skew

At roughly $68,000, the risk-reward profile is asymmetric in a very specific way. The upside to the critical $76,000 pivot is about 12%; a full extension to the $80,000 cluster offers 17–18%. The downside to the main bearish target at $50,000 is around 26–27%, and a reset toward $40,000 would mean roughly 40% further downside. The market has already digested a 46–50% drawdown from $126,080, ETF AUM is down 30.5%, on-chain metrics show stress, yet ETF inflows of $765+ million over two days and repeated defenses of the $60,000–$62,000 area argue against capitulating here. The rational stance at these levels is a Hold on BTC-USD, with a bearish tactical bias as long as price remains capped below $72,000–$76,000, and a constructive strategic view as long as the $50,000–$52,000 band holds on any future break. That means protecting capital rather than chasing upside in the middle of the range, using rallies into $72,000–$75,000 to trim risk, and preparing to size up only if BTC is delivered into the $50,000–$54,000 bracket under clear capitulation conditions.

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