Bitcoin Price Forecast - BTC-USD After the $60K Flush and Rebound Toward $70K

Bitcoin Price Forecast – BTC-USD attempts to stabilize around $70,000 after a controlled crash

BTC-USD is trading in the high $60,000s to low $70,000s after a brutal washout that took price down to roughly $60,000, then snapped it back more than 20% in about 48 hours to futures levels near $71,000. From the roughly $126,000 peak, Bitcoin is still about 44% below its high, even as major benchmarks like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq push toward or through record territory and gold holds above $5,000. Price is no longer in a straight-line collapse; it has transitioned into a wide, violent range where every $5,000–$10,000 swing is about positioning, not about the protocol surviving.

Price damage, drawdown context and where BTC-USD actually sits now

The key reality check: despite the drama, BTC-USD is not trading anywhere near a structural breakdown level. The market just saw a vertical flush from around the mid-$70,000s to roughly $60,000, followed by a rebound back toward $70,000–$71,000 and now a pause slightly below that. That pattern is classic post-euphoria repricing, not a collapse of the asset’s use case.
Short term, the chart shows three obvious zones. The panic low near $60,000 is the line that defines this entire episode. The current consolidation band around $69,000–$71,000 is the battleground where bulls try to prove that the rebound is more than a dead-cat move. Above, the $75,000 area acts as a magnet and first serious resistance: that’s where a lot of recent buyers will try to get out flat or slightly profitable after being caught on the way down.
The important point for a professional is that Bitcoin is repairing, not trending. The asset is still highly volatile, but the tape has shifted from a one-way liquidation to a two-sided market where dip buying and profit-taking are both active.

*From forced liquidation to two-sided trade – futures, VWAPs and key zones for BTC-USD

Order-flow and VWAP structure back the idea that the worst phase of the selling is already behind. Bitcoin futures are holding above recent session VWAP clusters instead of slipping below them on every intraday push. Several sessions in a row have closed with price trading above those intraday value lines, which tells you that late-day selling is being absorbed rather than extended.
The near-term technical map is very specific. The first important support zone sits in a tight band around $67,750–$67,165, defined by recent VWAPs and short-term value. If BTC-USD pulls back and holds that region, the rebound remains structurally healthy; it means buyers are respecting value and are willing to defend it. A sustained break back below that band would signal that the attempt to build a base is failing and that the market is sliding back into balance instead of trending higher.
Below that, $65,600 is the next decisive level. That’s a deeper pullback area where medium-term participants who missed the panic low are likely to start building positions rather than chase strength at $70,000–$75,000. If the rally is the start of a bigger transition, real money often prefers to accumulate down there, not at the top of a sharp bounce.
The last major line in this zone is around $63,855. If BTC-USD trades under $65,600 and cannot attract aggressive buyers around $63,855, the bullish case for this entire rebound weakens sharply. At that point, the market would be signaling that $60,000 is at risk of being revisited or broken, and the narrative would flip back from “base-building” to “failed bounce.”
On the upside, the $74,970–$75,000 area is the obvious price magnet. It aligns with prior reference highs, trapped long positions, and psychological round-number behavior. A move into that zone followed by acceptance and consolidation above it would be the first clear evidence that the market is transitioning from rebound to early-stage recovery. A sharp intraday spike into that band followed by rejection and heavy selling would instead confirm it as a supply wall and likely trigger another rotation back toward the $67,000s.

*Leverage reset and derivatives positioning around BTC-USD

One of the most important changes in this downswing is the destruction of leverage. Open interest in Bitcoin futures has fallen from around $90 billion at the October peak to about $49 billion now, with a drop from roughly $61 billion to $49 billion in just a week during the crash. That is nearly a 45% reduction versus the top, and more than 20% in the current flush alone.
This is not a cosmetic shift. It means a meaningful chunk of over-levered longs has already been taken out. The forced liquidations that drove price straight down now have far less fuel. When borrowing shrinks that dramatically, subsequent selloffs tend to turn into grinding corrections instead of freefalls, because there is simply less margin that can be called and fewer positions that can be forcibly closed at the bottom.
Liquidation data and the behavior of downside attempts confirm the change. Earlier, when BTC-USD broke levels on the way down, follow-through was immediate: price sliced lower with almost no counter-bid. Over the last several sessions, pushes lower have stalled quicker, bounced faster, and failed to attract the same aggressive momentum selling. That’s textbook behavior when a market shifts from a liquidating phase into a more balanced two-way trade.
The practical implication is straightforward. As long as futures positioning stays relatively lean and new leverage ramps up only gradually, downside spikes are more likely to be opportunities for stronger hands than the start of another cascade. If open interest explodes higher again without price making much progress, then the risk of another long squeeze will return.

Traditional finance, AI unwind and why the selloff started outside crypto

The latest collapse in BTC-USD was not triggered by an internal failure in Bitcoin’s infrastructure or by a hidden leverage bomb inside crypto. The shock originated in traditional markets. A broad derating in high-multiple software and AI names forced multi-asset portfolios to cut risk, reduce VaR, and rebalance across asset classes. Bitcoin positions sat inside those portfolios as part of the risk bucket, and they were liquidated alongside growth stocks.
From the perspective of institutional risk desks, this was not a judgment about Bitcoin’s protocol or long-term viability. It was a mechanical consequence of risk models: when equity volatility spikes and tech names gap lower, portfolios that are calibrated to fixed risk targets have to sell. In this case, that selling hit BTC-USD hard precisely because it had performed so well into late 2025 and early 2026, making it an obvious source of liquidity.
Options markets added fuel. As price slid, gamma dynamics in the options book forced hedging flows that accelerated the move, turning what began as a cross-asset de-risking into a full-blown air pocket. That’s why the market dropped so quickly toward $60,000 and then bounced violently once the pressure eased: the move was driven by positioning, not by a fundamental shift in the network.

Miners, treasuries and listed crypto stocks – balance sheets are bruised, not broken

Corporate behavior around BTC-USD has been noisy but not catastrophic. Large treasury holders like Strategy, which has accumulated Bitcoin over more than five years, are now sitting with an average cost basis near $76,000 and a mark-to-market that is modestly negative. The stock is heavily off its late-2024 highs, and critics are loudly pointing out that years of aggressive Bitcoin buying have, for now, produced only minimal net gains on the underlying holdings.
Despite that, the company is still adding to its position, recently purchasing more BTC with a fresh equity raise. Management has openly acknowledged that the only truly dangerous scenario would be a collapse of BTC-USD into single-digit thousands that persists for years – a tail event that would force balance-sheet restructuring. Short of that, the business model is built to survive extended drawdowns.
On the mining side, the story is similar. Bitdeer (NASDAQ:BTDR) is a good example: the stock trades around the low teens, and one major broker just cut its price target from $30 to $18 while keeping a Buy rating and explicitly modeling Bitcoin prices roughly 20% lower in 2025–2026 than in previous scenarios. Revenue growth is still projected in the 70% range, mining capacity and hashrate are climbing, and the firm is pushing deeper into high-performance computing and AI-related infrastructure. But the equity market is forcing management teams to run their plans under more conservative BTC assumptions and to prove that the pivot toward AI and HPC can generate real cash flow instead of just headlines.
Other miners are taking more extreme steps. One large player recently sold over 4,400 BTC, raising more than $300 million to strengthen its balance sheet and fund AI-driven expansion. That kind of forced selling is painful in the short term because it adds real supply into an already stressed market. But once those sales are done, the residual risk shrinks: the balance sheet is cleaner, and there are fewer coins left that must be dumped at any price.
The net result is that miners and treasury companies are under pressure but not collapsing. The market is recalibrating around more realistic Bitcoin price paths rather than relying on straight-line appreciation. From a cycle perspective, that is healthy.

ETF flows, institutional positioning and why the selloff is more about confidence than plumbing

Spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US have quietly passed a major stress test. Over the recent downdraft, cumulative flows since November show roughly $6.5 billion in net outflows, which sounds alarming at first glance. But during the core days of capitulation, some of the largest ETFs actually recorded single-day net inflows above $300 million as long-term accounts used the move toward $60,000 per BTC-USD to add exposure.
That behavior is nothing like the classic crypto crisis episodes where products blow up, liquidity evaporates, and redemptions cascade. Here, the plumbing held. The ETFs functioned as designed, spreads remained orderly, and capital cycled from weaker holders to more patient buyers. For institutions that want spot exposure without dealing with exchange risk, the episode reinforced that the infrastructure is robust enough to handle violent price moves.
The broader institutional picture is similar. There is no systemic failure, no major exchange collapse, no evidence of mission-critical infrastructure breaking. The problem is conviction, not plumbing. Some desks have cut exposure because performance has suffered, not because they discovered a hidden flaw in Bitcoin’s design. That is a very different situation from past bear phases where structural failures drove the narrative.

Macro backdrop: Fed liquidity, US growth and the role of Bitcoin next to Nasdaq and S&P 500

While BTC-USD is digesting a 44% drawdown from its high, US macro conditions are, paradoxically, turning more supportive for risk assets again. Growth data remains strong, inflation is showing renewed signs of easing, and the Federal Reserve has gone back to purchasing Treasury bills to keep money markets smooth and short-term rates aligned with its target range. That effectively adds liquidity at the margin and historically has helped assets that respond to the global dollar cycle, including Bitcoin, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq.
The equity market itself underlines the divergence. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq are grinding higher despite concerns about an AI bubble, political uncertainty, and valuations in software. Gold is setting new highs as central banks diversify away from the dollar. Bitcoin, instead of joining those new highs, is stuck in a high-volatility consolidation well below its peak. For a macro-driven allocator, that combination matters: liquidity is improving, traditional indices are already rich, gold is crowded, and Bitcoin is the one major risk asset that has already absorbed a heavy reset.
Even the appointment of a more hawkish Fed chair candidate has not changed the structural reality that when funding markets show stress, balance-sheet expansion becomes a necessity, not a choice. Over a multi-year horizon, that bias toward liquidity support is difficult to square with the idea that BTC-USD will permanently languish at current levels if the network continues to function and adoption continues.

*Narratives, critics and quantum noise – sentiment is worse than the structural picture for BTC-USD

Sentiment has swung to an extreme. Long-time skeptics of Bitcoin are once again declaring that the asset is still “$69,000 too high” and that the supply of “greater fools” is finally exhausted. Prominent gold advocates are highlighting that BTC-USD, measured in gold terms, is down almost 60% from the 2021 relative peak, and arguing that Bitcoin sits in a structural bear market when priced in ounces. These voices are loud right at the point where leverage has been purged and price has already fallen far from the high – a pattern that has appeared in every previous cycle.
On top of that, quantum computing fears have resurfaced. Some institutional investors are running stress scenarios around the possibility that future quantum machines could break current cryptographic schemes and threaten digital assets, including Bitcoin. Importantly, that risk is not unique to BTC-USD; banking systems, payment networks, government infrastructure and almost every critical digital system rely on similar cryptography. The entire stack would need to transition to quantum-resistant standards, and Bitcoin’s open, upgradeable codebase actually makes it easier to adjust in a coordinated way once real timelines are clear. For now, quantum risk is a narrative overhang, not an immediate threat.
At the same time, serious research houses remain structurally constructive. One top brokerage has reiterated a long-term target around $150,000 for BTC-USD by the end of 2026, calling the current environment the weakest bear case in the asset’s history. Their reasoning is simple: no major failures, no systemic leverage bomb, strong alignment between institutions, a pro-Bitcoin policy backdrop in the US, growing corporate treasuries, and a fully operational ETF layer. That mix looks nothing like the backdrop around previous crashes driven by exchange collapses or protocol failures.
The fear-and-greed index hovering near 5 out of 100 captures the gap between perception and structure. Emotionally, the market feels like the end of the world. Mechanically, the system looks intact.

Medium-term roadmap for BTC-USD – key supports, upside targets and risk scenarios

From here, the roadmap for BTC-USD is defined by a handful of prices and behaviors. On the downside, the critical levels are $67,750–$67,165, $65,600, $63,855 and then the panic low near $60,000. As long as pullbacks are absorbed above the first VWAP cluster, the bullish case strengthens: it would prove that participants are willing to defend value and that each dip is attracting demand rather than panic. If price loses that band but stabilizes around $65,600 and $63,855 with rising spot volumes and slowing downside follow-through, the picture remains consistent with base-building inside a wider range.
Only a decisive break and daily acceptance below $60,000 would turn the structure into something more dangerous. That would reopen a path toward the mid-$50,000s or lower and would likely bring back forced selling from marginal players that just rebuilt risk too quickly. It would not necessarily destroy the cycle, but it would extend it and push out any sustained move higher by months.
On the upside, the first mission for the bulls is to convert the $74,970–$75,000 band from resistance into support. A clean push into that zone, followed by consolidation rather than immediate rejection, would show that the market is ready to trade above the post-crash value area and start targeting deeper retracements of the entire decline. From there, the next logical checkpoints lie around prior congestion zones in the $80,000s and then the $90,000s.
The more aggressive long-term targets around six figures and beyond still depend on two conditions: a friendlier global liquidity backdrop and continued institutional adoption of the ETF and custody stack. Neither of those has been structurally damaged by the recent move; they have simply paused while risk capital digests the drawdown.

Verdict on BTC-USD – bias, time frame and whether this is a Buy, Sell or Hold

Putting all of this together, BTC-USD currently looks like a Buy on weakness, not a chase at strength. The market has flushed a large share of leverage, survived a violent cross-asset de-risking without structural failures, and is now attempting to build a base just under $70,000 with clearly defined support zones at $67,750–$67,165, $65,600, $63,855 and ultimately $60,000. Macro conditions are slowly shifting back toward a more supportive liquidity environment, while traditional indices and gold trade much closer to their highs than Bitcoin does to its own peak.
Over a 18–24 month horizon, a reasonable central scenario is that BTC-USD spends time ranging between roughly $60,000 and $90,000 while the system continues to institutionalize, miners rebalance their businesses, and ETF adoption deepens. In that framework, aggressive selling after a 44% drawdown and a major leverage purge makes little sense unless you believe that the entire digital-asset thesis is permanently broken.
On balance, the structure points to a constructive bias. Short-term, the tape remains extremely volatile and can easily test $65,000 or even $60,000 again. Medium-term, the mix of cleaned-up positioning, resilient infrastructure, and a still-accommodative liquidity backdrop argues that the current zone is more likely an accumulation window than the start of a secular collapse. From a pure market-structure standpoint, BTC-USD earns a Buy rating with high volatility and a clear condition: the view holds only as long as the $60,000 area continues to act as a floor rather than a trapdoor.

That's TradingNEWS