Bitcoin Price Forecast - BTC-USD at $113K as IBIT ETF Surges to $87B and Traders Eye $120K Breakout

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) Consolidates Above $113K With Eyes on $120K Breakout

Bitcoin continued to trade in a narrow but decisive band on Tuesday, with BTC-USD at $113,821 (-0.46%), stabilizing after sharp swings earlier in September. The price has rebounded from lows near $107,000, reclaiming critical moving averages and now pressing against resistance levels that could define the next phase of this cycle. Traders are closely monitoring whether the $118,000–$120,000 zone will break, which could propel Bitcoin toward $124,000 in the near term and set the stage for long-term targets as high as $180,000 before the end of 2025.

Institutional Demand Reshapes Market Structure

The flow of capital into regulated ETFs continues to transform how Bitcoin trades. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) now controls $87 billion in assets and has overtaken Deribit in open interest with $38 billion, compared with Deribit’s $32 billion. This shift represents Wall Street’s growing dominance in Bitcoin markets, reducing offshore leverage dependence and amplifying the influence of institutional flows. Coinbase remains the custodian for IBIT, underscoring the growing integration of Bitcoin into traditional financial infrastructure.

The rise of ETF activity has provided stability to spot demand while curbing excessive derivatives-driven volatility. Yet, it also ties BTC closer to macroeconomic triggers such as interest rate policy and U.S. fiscal debates, making political uncertainty, like the looming government shutdown, directly relevant to crypto price action.

On-Chain Activity: Whale Accumulation and Stablecoin Signals

On-chain metrics continue to highlight strong structural support for BTC. Exchange balances have been in steady decline, with large holders removing coins to cold storage — a classic indicator of long-term conviction. Whale wallets have been steadily accumulating since BTC dipped below $110,000, providing a cushion for the rebound to current levels above $113K.

Meanwhile, stablecoin flows surged into exchanges in the past 24 hours, with USDT and USDC deposits spiking just as Bitcoin consolidated above $113K. Historically, such inflows precede sharp upward volatility as liquidity rotates into spot BTC. If these inflows sustain, the push through $118K–$120K could materialize swiftly.

Mining Fundamentals and Hashrate Expansion

The Bitcoin hashrate has hit fresh record highs, reflecting sustained investment into mining infrastructure even as BTC trades below its all-time peak. Miner outflows to exchanges have slowed in the past 48 hours, easing immediate selling pressure. This indicates that miners are choosing to hold newly mined coins rather than liquidating to cover costs — a supportive trend for price stability.

The combination of higher hashrate and lighter selling pressure bolsters network security while reducing downward liquidity risk. However, analysts caution that rising energy costs or a failure to break $120K could flip this balance quickly.

Technical Landscape: Resistance at $118K–$120K

From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin has reclaimed its 100-day moving average after dipping below it earlier this month. The 200-day MA sits lower, reinforcing longer-term structural support. The critical test now lies in the $116K–$120K supply zone, where multiple technical barriers converge.

On the daily chart, a breakout above the descending trendline paired with the $118K–$120K resistance band would likely unlock an advance toward $124K, where large liquidity pools are waiting. On the downside, failure to clear this zone could send BTC back toward $110K or even $107K, where strong demand previously halted selling.

Macro Headwinds: Correlation With Equities and U.S. Shutdown Risk

Bitcoin’s correlation with equities has been rising. As the S&P 500 closed at 6,672 (+0.16%) and the Dow Jones at 46,327 (+0.02%), traders noted that BTC is behaving increasingly like a risk asset. Political uncertainty around the U.S. budget could amplify volatility, especially if key labor and inflation data are delayed. The lack of timely government reports would deprive the Federal Reserve of fresh inputs before its October 28–29 meeting, adding policy ambiguity.

Despite the pressure, October seasonality — often dubbed “Uptober” — historically delivers strong returns for Bitcoin, with past averages above 20% monthly gains. This seasonal factor, combined with whale accumulation and ETF inflows, provides a bullish counterweight to political risks.

Altcoin Dynamics and Market Breadth

While Bitcoin dominates attention, altcoins have shown weakness. Ethereum (ETH-USD) pulled back 2.42% to $4,182, Solana (SOL-USD) slid 3.03%, and XRP (XRP-USD) dropped 2.04%, all underperforming BTC. Bitcoin’s market dominance is now approaching 60%, reinforcing its role as the anchor in the crypto complex.

Meanwhile, speculative presales like Bitcoin Hyper ($HYPER) and Maxi Doge (MAXI) have drawn retail enthusiasm, raising $19.3M and $2.6M, respectively. Yet their success highlights the divergence between institutional BTC demand and retail-driven meme assets. If Bitcoin sustains momentum, these speculative tokens may benefit from spillover enthusiasm, but they also risk sharp reversals if BTC fails at $120K.

Valuation Metrics and Cycle Comparisons

Bitcoin remains roughly 10% off its record high from last month, yet analysts argue the cycle is still in its middle phase. The current price at $113K represents only 1.8x the prior cycle’s $69K peak, while historical bull markets often reach 3.5x multiples, implying potential targets as high as $240K–$300K before the cycle ends.

Another metric compares BTC to gold. Analyst ZynxBTC points out that Bitcoin must reach $151K to equal its all-time high in gold-denominated terms. With a $2.26 trillion market cap, BTC remains below 0.2% of global assets, leaving room for structural capital inflows.

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