Bitcoin Price Forecast - BTC-USD at $115,331 Eyes Breakout Above $117K as ETF Holdings Hit 1.3M BTC

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) Holds $115,000 as Fed Cuts, ETF Inflows and IPO Wave Drive Liquidity Surge

Bitcoin is trading near $115,331, stabilizing after a volatile week where price action ranged between $114,000 support and $117,200 resistance. This consolidation comes as macro catalysts—including the Fed’s first rate cut since 2024, rising ETF inflows, and a pipeline of crypto IPOs—reshape liquidity dynamics heading into Q4 2025.

Institutional Momentum Builds With BitGo’s NYSE Listing Plans

One of the most notable institutional signals came from BitGo, which filed for a U.S. IPO under ticker BTGO, partnering with Citigroup and Goldman Sachs. The custody firm reported $4.19B in H1 revenue and manages over $90.3B in assets for 4,600 clients. Its debut follows Circle’s 365% post-IPO rally earlier this year, highlighting selective investor appetite for crypto infrastructure. ETF demand is also accelerating—U.S.-listed Bitcoin ETFs now hold 1.3M BTC, a record that continues to squeeze circulating supply.

Liquidity Pressures and Treasury Flows Shape BTC Trajectory

Liquidity remains the critical driver. The U.S. Treasury General Account (TGA) has swelled to $807B, close to Arthur Hayes’ $850B threshold for an “up-only” regime in risk assets. If TGA balances plateau and liquidity returns, Bitcoin could break out of its tight range. Historically, lower rates and improved liquidity have triggered double-digit rallies across crypto, making the next October FOMC cut pivotal.

Technical Structure: Wedge Consolidation at $116K

Bitcoin’s short-term structure remains bound by wedge resistance. The 50-EMA at $116,300 has capped gains, while the 200-EMA at $114,200 is acting as first support. A decisive move below $115,100 exposes $114,200 and $112,100, while a breakout above $116,600 opens retests of $117,980 and $119,150. Long-term resistance sits at $118,626, where a double top may be forming. Daily RSI has cooled to 55, showing consolidation after overbought conditions earlier this month.

Macro Tailwinds: Fed Cuts and “Uptober” Seasonality

The 25-bp Fed cut in September fueled BTC’s rally toward $118K. CME FedWatch now prices another 0.25% cut on Oct. 29, reinforcing optimism that a dovish cycle has begun. Traders also highlight the seasonal “Uptober” effect: in 2024, BTC’s +7.29% September gain was followed by +10.76% in October; in 2023, a +3.91% September preceded a +28.52% October rally. If history repeats, a move toward $125K–$130K in the coming month is possible.

ETFs and Strategic Reserve Policy Intensify Demand

The Trump administration’s creation of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve in March 2025 has added a new layer of sovereign demand. Combined with ETF inflows that saw “hundreds of millions” absorbed in a single day this month, institutional demand is outstripping miner supply. Post-halving scarcity—block rewards cut to 3.125 BTC in April 2024—has only amplified this imbalance, strengthening the case for sustained upside.

Altcoin Layer-2 Momentum and Competitive Flows

While BTC dominance remains above 52%, alternative projects are siphoning speculative capital. Bitcoin Hyper ($HYPER), a Solana-based BTC Layer-2, has raised over $17.3M in presale, positioning itself as a high-speed smart contract ecosystem. Meanwhile, Ethereum trades at $4,473, with upgrades like Fusaka set to expand scaling, and Remittix (RTX) emerging as a PayFi competitor with $26.2M raised. These developments highlight how innovation across Layer-2 and DeFi is broadening the crypto risk spectrum, though BTC remains the macro anchor.

Range-Bound Futures and Derivatives Dynamics

Bitcoin derivatives are mirroring spot indecision. Futures open interest remains heavy near the $115K strike, while options flows are tilted toward calls at $120K expiring in October. Volatility compression over the last four weekends suggests a breakout setup. Traders eye $112K downside as a key risk level, while upside call walls at $120K–$122.5K mark the next target if resistance breaks.

Investment Verdict

With BTC consolidating tightly between $114K and $117K, the market is at a pivot. Macro tailwinds—Fed cuts, ETF inflows, IPO activity, and October seasonality—favor upside, but technicals warn of a potential pullback toward $112K before higher levels are tested. The verdict: Buy on dips toward $114K–$115K, targeting $120K in the medium term and $130K into year-end 2025, provided liquidity and institutional momentum continue to build.

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