Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC-USD Balances Near $69K With $60K–$55K on the Line

Bitcoin Price Forecast – volatility, leverage and policy at a turning point

BTC-USD price snapshot and macro backdrop

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) is trading around $68,000–$70,000 after a violent swing that briefly drove price toward $60,000 and then snapped back. One of the latest prints has BTC-USD near $69,000–$69,500, while another source notes a push back above $70,000 as markets digest a cooler US inflation reading. The US CPI came in at 2.4% year-on-year versus a 2.5% consensus, a small miss that carries big implications: the odds of earlier rate cuts have risen, risk assets have caught a bid, and Bitcoin is riding that move alongside equities. Tech remains a key reference point. Apple sits around $255.78, down about 2.27%, confirming pressure on large-cap growth even as macro data improves. The message is simple: BTC-USD is trading as a high-beta macro asset that responds immediately to shifts in rates and risk appetite.

Extreme fear, liquidations and sentiment around BTC-USD

Sentiment is nowhere near comfortable. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has collapsed to 9, firmly in Extreme Fear, despite price holding tens of thousands above prior cycle lows. The derivatives data shows why the mood feels like capitulation. A break below $66,000 generated roughly $177 million in long liquidations, followed by nearly $140 million in short liquidations when BTC-USD ripped back above $69,000. In total, one weekly window saw around $8.7 billion in realized losses on-chain, the second-largest loss cluster in Bitcoin’s history after the worst liquidation episodes. At the same time, Bitcoin treasury holders were sitting on about $21 billion in unrealized drawdowns at the lowest point, improving to around $16.9 billion after the rebound, showing how deep the mark-to-market pain has become even for balance-sheet allocations.

Funding rates, short crowding and BTC squeeze potential

Derivatives funding is now one of the most important contrarian signals on the table. On Binance, the 14-day simple moving average of the BTC funding rate has dropped to around –0.002, the lowest level in more than a year. That means shorts are paying longs on a sustained basis and the derivatives book is crowded to the downside. Historically, when funding remains deeply negative over a multi-week stretch after a large selloff, markets often set up for sharp short squeezes: a moderate push higher can trigger forced covering, adding fuel to upside spikes. Given that funding is this depressed with BTC-USD still near $68,000–$70,000, fresh aggressive shorts at these levels are entering a market already positioned with a strong bearish bias.

Open interest, deleveraging and BTC market structure

The open-interest profile confirms a deleveraging phase rather than a fresh leverage blow-off. During the run toward $120,000, aggregate open interest climbed toward roughly $80 billion as leverage piled in at the top. In the recent correction, that figure contracted to about $44.6 billion, a drawdown of close to 45% from peak leverage. That reset matters: the most fragile, late-stage leveraged longs have already been cleared out. The next impulse – up or down – will run on a cleaner book, not on the same crowded speculative structure that existed near the highs. This is typical of a mid-cycle reset inside a larger bullish arc: the trend from $120,000 is clearly lower, but the leverage fuel that created the blow-off has mostly burned off.

ETF flows, spot exchange moves and BTC supply rotation

Flows are split between ETFs and exchanges, pointing to a rotation rather than a simple exit. US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded an outflow of about $276.3 million in a single session after three days of inflows, signaling that a meaningful slice of institutional capital is taking risk down or locking in losses. In contrast, spot data across exchanges shows net outflows of roughly $49.96 million, indicating that coins are leaving trading venues and likely heading to self-custody or long-term wallets. That combination — ETF redemptions alongside exchange outflows — usually describes supply migrating from short-horizon to longer-horizon holders. It is not a euphoric accumulation phase, but it is also not a wholesale abandonment of the asset. Supply is being reshuffled from weak hands to stronger balance sheets in real time.

Macro downtrend from 120,000 and BTC resistance zones

Technically, BTC-USD remains in a structured downtrend from the cycle top. Price failed near $120,000 and then rolled over at a key Fibonacci area. The rejection around the 0.618 retracement near $101,000 marked the point where the market stopped treating the pullback as a brief correction and transitioned into a proper down leg. Subsequent breaks of support near $85,700 and later $76,100 confirmed a sequence of lower highs and lower lows. Trend-strength signals back that up: ADX remains above 55, showing a strong directional move rather than rangebound noise. As long as BTC-USD trades below the $76,000–$85,000 band, every rally into that zone is structurally a test of resistance rather than a confirmed resumption of the prior bull run.

BTC support levels at 65,520, 63,000 and the 60,000 line

Shorter-term, the chart is defined by a clear set of support and resistance levels. On the upside, $67,300 — the lower boundary of an earlier consolidation — is being retested from below and now behaves as resistance. Above that, $69,000–$71,000 is a tactical ceiling, with $71,751 as the upper limit of the previous sideways range and $73,072 as a key daily resistance pivot. On the downside, the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement around $65,520 (from the August 2024 low at $49,000 to the October 2025 high at $126,199) is the first structural line to watch. A decisive daily close below $65,520 would solidify the view that the post-ATH decline still has room. Beneath that, $63,000–$65,000 forms a horizontal demand band, and $60,000–$60,700 acts as the market’s psychological and technical “last defense” in the current framework.

Realized price near 55,000 and the depth of BTC capitulation

On-chain valuation metrics show where a true washout could unfold. The realized price sits close to $55,000, effectively the average on-chain acquisition cost of the outstanding supply. In previous deep drawdowns, BTC-USD has often traded 24–30% below realized price at the major bear-market lows. Translating that pattern into today’s numbers means that a full historical-style capitulation could push Bitcoin toward the low $50,000s if panic fully takes over. At the moment, price remains above realized price and more than half of the circulating supply is still in profit, while long-term holders are not dumping aggressively. That tells you the market has not executed a textbook total capitulation yet. Instead, the data points to a prolonged, grinding reset, with time as a core weapon rather than a single catastrophic crash.

Momentum signals on BTC 4-hour and daily charts

Momentum indicators confirm a bearish bias but show early signs of exhaustion. On the 4-hour chart, RSI is around 44, below the neutral 50 level, signaling that selling pressure still dominates the short-term tape. At the same time, MACD lines are converging, hinting that a bullish crossover is possible if buyers push just slightly harder. If that crossover materializes, it can be the trigger for a short-term squeeze toward the $71,000–$73,000 zone; if it fails, bears keep control and drive another leg down. On the daily chart, RSI hovers near 31, edging toward oversold territory and consistent with the later stages of a down move rather than the start. The daily MACD has already printed a bearish crossover, in line with the broken supports at $85,700 and $76,100 and with the broader downtrend from $120,000. Overall, momentum is negative but stretched, which is exactly the kind of environment where strong countertrend moves can erupt once sellers tire.

Regulation, the Clarity Act and BTC’s policy premium

Policy risk is a separate but critical factor in the current environment. The stalled Clarity Act sits at the center of the US regulatory debate. The Treasury Secretary explicitly linked Bitcoin’s volatility and the current drawdown — roughly 50% off the October 2025 high — to the lack of a coherent market structure law. Negotiations around the bill have become tangled after major crypto firms, including Coinbase, withdrew support, leading to friction between the digital-asset industry and banking representatives, particularly over rules for yield-bearing stablecoins. Banks warn that high-yield stablecoins could drain deposits and constrain credit, while crypto firms argue that aggressive caps would kill innovation. For BTC-USD, the implications are asymmetric: a credible path to passing the Clarity Act would reduce the regulatory discount and support higher valuations, while further deadlock prolongs uncertainty and keeps a risk premium embedded in the price.

Cross-asset readthrough from S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow and tech leaders

Cross-asset context supports the idea that Bitcoin is trading as a high-volatility extension of the broader risk complex. After the CPI reading at 2.4%, equity indices such as the S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow Jones stabilized near elevated levels, even as some individual names came under pressure. Tech leaders like Apple at $255.78 (–2.27%) and earlier moves in Amazon and Nvidia highlight that high-duration assets are still sensitive to any hint of rates staying higher for longer. At the same time, BTC-USD has bounced more aggressively than indices as traders reprice the path of rate cuts and reach for leverage on any sign of relief. When the macro tone improves, Bitcoin amplifies the upside. When risk appetite fades or liquidations spike, Bitcoin leads the downside. That correlation structure means BTC-USD currently functions as the purest expression of global risk sentiment rather than as an isolated, idiosyncratic asset.

Bearish path for BTC-USD: break of 60,000 and slide toward 55,000

The downside roadmap is straightforward and heavily defined by the levels in your data. A clear rejection at $67,300, failure to reclaim $69,000–$71,000, and a daily close below $65,520 would confirm that bears still hold the initiative. If ETF outflows continue and the negative funding regime persists without a squeeze, BTC-USD can retest $63,000 and then $60,000–$60,700. A sustained break of that band would naturally drag the market toward the realized-price region around $55,000, especially if fear remains elevated and regulation headlines disappoint. Under a full stress scenario, a flush into the low-to-mid $50,000s is consistent with the 24–30% undershoot versus realized price seen at prior bear extremes. In that environment, short-term volatility would spike again, but the risk-reward for new shorts would worsen quickly as the market approaches the historical capitulation zone.

Base-case BTC range: 60,000 to 75,000 as an active trading zone

Given the mix of signals, a wide, noisy range is still the most realistic central scenario. Open interest has already dropped from around $80 billion to $44.6 billion, the funding rate is deeply negative, fear is extreme, ETF flows are choppy rather than collapsing, and long-term holders are largely standing firm. All of that supports a structure where BTC-USD oscillates between $60,000 and roughly $75,000 for an extended period. In this configuration, the $60,000–$63,000 area acts as the main demand cluster, while the $71,000–$76,000 band caps rallies as trapped longs sell into strength and systematic strategies fade moves. Inside that corridor, short squeezes and sharp dips are both frequent. It is not a passive environment. It is a market where disciplined range trading and staged accumulation make more sense than directional, all-or-nothing bets.

Bullish BTC scenario: reclaiming 76,000–85,000 and rebuilding the uptrend

The bullish map requires more than just a good CPI print and a one-off rebound. For BTC-USD to credibly re-enter a sustained uptrend, several technical and macro checkpoints must be cleared. Price needs to break and hold above $71,751, then push through $73,072 on a daily basis, establishing a new base over what was previously resistance. After that, the critical test is the $76,000–$85,000 range, where earlier breakdowns occurred and where a large amount of trapped supply resides. At the same time, macro conditions would need to show repeated softer inflation prints, higher odds of rate cuts being delivered rather than just priced, and a decisive shift back to persistent net inflows into spot BTC ETFs instead of the $276.3 million outflow pattern seen recently. A constructive resolution of the Clarity Act debate would further compress the regulatory discount. In that world, the current zone around $68,000–$70,000 would, in hindsight, mark a volatile accumulation stage before a push back toward five-figure highs north of $85,000.

Final stance on BTC-USD: staggered BUY with risk down to the 55,000 band

All the numbers point to a market that has been hit hard but not fully broken. BTC-USD is down roughly half from the $120,000 region, funding at –0.002 over 14 days shows a market overloaded with shorts, open interest has been almost halved from the leverage peak, the Fear & Greed Index at 9 signals panic, and $8.7 billion in realized losses plus large unrealized drawdowns on treasury positions confirm real pain, not a minor dip. At the same time, realized price around $55,000, critical supports at $60,000–$63,000, and the absence of total on-chain capitulation leave room for another leg lower if macro or regulation deteriorate. Taking everything together, BTC-USD around $68,000–$70,000 is a staggered BUY with a wide risk band extending toward the $55,000 region. Positioning, funding and sentiment argue that the next violent surprise is more likely an upside squeeze than a fresh leverage-driven collapse, while the structural downside is measurable and defined. For capital willing to tolerate volatility and respect the 60,000–55,000 risk corridor, the current zone offers an entry that is no longer euphoric but still early in the long-term consolidation phase.

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