Bitcoin Price Forecast - BTC-USD Breaks Above $105,000 as Shutdown Progress

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) Surges Above $105,000 as Shutdown Relief and Risk Rally Lift Crypto Appetite

Bitcoin extended its rebound Monday, climbing 0.58% to $105,218, as broader risk sentiment improved alongside U.S. equities. The move followed renewed progress in Washington toward ending the record-long government shutdown, which boosted global markets and reignited demand for speculative assets. Investors rotated back into risk-on trades after weeks of uncertainty, positioning Bitcoin among the top outperformers within digital assets.

The broader crypto market reflected the shift in sentiment, with altcoins posting modest gains and liquidity conditions improving across exchanges. Analysts noted that Bitcoin’s resilience above the $100,000 psychological level underscores a stabilizing technical base that could pave the way for a retest of its $110,000–$112,000 resistance range, should macro momentum continue.

Institutional Flows Return as Bitcoin Reclaims Market Confidence

Institutional participation ticked higher, with inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs resuming after last week’s volatility. Data from trading desks showed steady accumulation by macro funds and digital asset managers, suggesting that larger players used recent weakness to rebuild exposure.

Market leaders like MicroStrategy (NASDAQ:MSTR) — often viewed as a proxy for institutional Bitcoin exposure — rebounded after weeks of declines. The company’s market cap, hovering near $70 billion, remains well below its $128 billion July peak but shows early signs of renewed interest as Bitcoin stabilizes above $105K.

Other crypto-related equities such as Coinbase Global (NASDAQ:COIN) and Robinhood Markets (NASDAQ:HOOD) also posted gains in tandem with the broader rebound. The crypto-equity complex, which had underperformed since early October, is now drawing inflows as traders anticipate a stronger Q4 performance driven by liquidity normalization and risk-on positioning.

Macroeconomic Relief Adds Tailwind to Bitcoin Momentum

The Senate’s bipartisan vote to advance a bill reopening the U.S. government sent ripple effects across asset classes. Treasury yields steadied, with the U.S. 10-year yield (BX:TMUBMUSD10Y) holding at 4.116%, while the Dollar Index (DXY) edged up 0.09% to 96.93. Despite the stronger dollar, Bitcoin rallied — a sign that crypto investors are focusing on liquidity restoration and delayed economic data releases expected once the government reopens.

Gold also surged 2.25% to $4,100.20, signaling that traders are diversifying across both traditional and digital hedges. Analysts pointed out that Bitcoin’s behavior mirrored that of gold during previous shutdown-ending rallies — a reflection of its hybrid appeal as both a speculative and inflation-sensitive asset.

Market participants now await the release of delayed U.S. jobs data, inflation reports, and consumer spending metrics. A stronger macro print could reaffirm expectations for the Federal Reserve to maintain a neutral stance through early 2026, indirectly supporting risk assets like Bitcoin.

Technical Outlook: Bitcoin Consolidates Above Key Support Levels

Technically, Bitcoin’s ability to hold the $105,000 region marks a critical stabilization point after the late-October selloff. Support is firmly established near $102,500, with buyers consistently stepping in on dips. The 50-day moving average now aligns around $103,000, acting as a secondary safety zone for short-term traders.

A sustained close above $106,000 could trigger renewed momentum toward $110,000, while a breakout beyond $112,000 may confirm a continuation pattern targeting the $118,000–$120,000 zone. Relative Strength Index (RSI) readings remain balanced around the mid-50s, showing room for upside before reaching overbought levels.

Volume data from major exchanges indicates that institutional desks are gradually rebuilding exposure, with spot activity up 12% from last week’s average. Derivatives markets also show declining funding rates, suggesting reduced speculative leverage — a healthy sign for sustainable price action.

Mining, Liquidity, and Market Structure Show Renewed Stability

Hash rate levels continued to climb, underscoring robust network security and miner profitability despite earlier consolidation. Mining revenue, buoyed by transaction fees and stable electricity costs, remains near its highest since July. Analysts said the rising hash rate and stable difficulty adjustments suggest no structural stress in the mining ecosystem — a key signal of underlying network health.

Meanwhile, exchange liquidity deepened as market makers returned following last week’s volatility. The spread on BTC/USD pairs narrowed back to $6–8, compared with $12–15 during the peak of shutdown-induced uncertainty. Funding stability across major perpetual futures markets points to reduced panic positioning and improved hedging flow from institutional players.

Correlation Dynamics Shift: Bitcoin Decouples from Equities

While equities surged — with the NASDAQ:COMP up 1.56% and S&P 500:SPX gaining 0.89% — Bitcoin’s move higher carried unique conviction. Its rally occurred despite a modest uptick in Treasury yields and a stronger dollar, hinting at independent momentum. Historically, Bitcoin tends to rally strongly when fiscal concerns ease but inflation expectations remain sticky — precisely the setup emerging now as shutdown relief boosts spending projections.

Correlation metrics show a slight decline in Bitcoin’s 30-day correlation with the NASDAQ 100 (NDX) from 0.73 to 0.64, signaling a gradual decoupling. This shift suggests investors are once again treating Bitcoin as a distinct asset class rather than merely a high-beta extension of tech stocks.

Investor Sentiment Turns Bullish Into Year-End

Market positioning remains constructive heading into the final stretch of 2025. Derivatives traders continue pricing in elevated year-end expectations, with call options around the $115,000 strike showing increased open interest. Stablecoin inflows across exchanges rose 9% week-on-week, a classic precursor to higher spot buying activity.

Large on-chain transfers have also increased, suggesting accumulation by long-term holders. Addresses holding more than 1,000 BTC — often associated with institutional or sovereign entities — rose by 1.2% last week, confirming renewed confidence in Bitcoin’s medium-term trajectory.

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index climbed to 69, indicating moderate greed — a notable recovery from 47 a week earlier. Analysts believe sentiment will remain elevated as investors anticipate macro clarity and continued ETF inflows through December.

TradingNews Verdict: BUY Bias Maintained

Based on current momentum, technical resilience, and improving macro signals, TradingNews maintains a BUY outlook on Bitcoin (BTC-USD) with near-term upside toward $110,000. Support remains firm above $102,000, and long-term structure continues to favor accumulation amid stable liquidity and renewed institutional participation.

Bitcoin’s recovery alongside equities signals confidence returning across risk assets. As Washington moves closer to ending the fiscal deadlock and delayed data releases resume, Bitcoin stands to benefit from restored capital flows and macro recalibration — setting up for a potentially powerful continuation rally into December.

That's TradingNEWS