Bitcoin Price Forecast - BTC-USD Cracks $110K as $22B Options Expiry and Whale Retreat Put $103K in Play

Bitcoin Struggles as $109,000 Support Buckles

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) opened Friday’s Wall Street session under heavy selling pressure, slipping below the key $110,000 handle and trading at $109,373, down 1.78% in the last 24 hours. The slide placed BTC at its weakest point in six weeks, with intraday lows testing $109,000. Market capitalization now stands near $2.17 trillion, and weekly losses are on track to exceed 5%. Liquidity data from Binance shows buyers clustering around $108,200 while liquidation levels stack near $110,000, creating a tight battlefield that has heightened volatility.

Leverage Flush and Options Expiry Magnify Downside

The downturn was amplified by a wave of liquidations in derivatives markets. Glassnode reported that long positions were flushed as Bitcoin futures fell under $111,000, part of what it called a broad deleveraging reset. Nearly $1.5 billion in positions were liquidated across crypto markets earlier this week, easing leverage but intensifying volatility. The pressure comes just as $22 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum options expire on Deribit, OKX, and CME, with $17 billion tied to Bitcoin alone. The largest open interest sits around the $110,000 strike, and analysts warned that closing levels between $107,000 and $110,000 would favor put holders by nearly $2 billion, while only a late rally toward $112,500 would tilt advantage back to bulls.

Technical Signals Point to $103,000–$95,000 Zone

Chart dynamics confirm the weakening trend. BTC trades beneath its 50- and 100-period SMAs, both clustered around $113,700, with price action forming a descending triangle. A shooting star candlestick at $116,000 followed by a “three black crows” pattern reinforced bearish control. Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 31, just above oversold territory, but without bullish divergence. Support levels are identified at $107,300, $105,200, and $102,800. If sellers maintain pressure, downside targets extend toward $101,000 and possibly $95,000 — levels echoed by traders like Dr. Profit, who places 70% odds that the cycle top is already in.

Macro Events Fail to Lift BTC as PCE Hits 2.7%

Despite the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index arriving at 2.7% annually and 2.9% core, in line with estimates, Bitcoin remained unresponsive. The PCE marked a seven-month high but reinforced bets on further Fed rate cuts. The Kobeissi Letter noted that the Fed is committed to easing policy, which typically favors risk assets like BTC. Yet crypto markets ignored the macro tailwind, showing traders remain dominated by technical levels and derivatives positioning rather than inflation data.

Institutional Shifts: Google’s $3 Billion Mining Bet Reshapes Landscape

Beyond spot price, institutional flows are reshaping Bitcoin’s ecosystem. Google confirmed a $3 billion, 10-year deal with Cipher Mining (NASDAQ: CIFR), acquiring a 5.4% equity stake through 24 million shares. Cipher’s Barber Lake facility in Texas will deliver 168 MW of HPC capacity under contract with Fluidstack, expandable to 500 MW, securing $3 billion in contracted revenue with potential to reach $7 billion. The investment follows Google’s earlier 14% stake in TeraWulf (NASDAQ: WULF) and underscores Wall Street’s accelerating convergence of Bitcoin mining and AI infrastructure. Mining equities responded positively: Cipher shares surged double digits, while TeraWulf (WULF) climbed over 1% despite Bitcoin’s slide.

Whales Retreat as Derivatives Exposure Shrinks

On-chain data revealed a sharp retrenchment from large holders. Nansen reported that the top 100 Bitcoin wallets cut their perpetual futures exposure by 65.7% in the past week, offloading 1,526 contracts. Meanwhile, whales holding between 10,000 and 100,000 BTC reduced their balances by 20,000 coins, roughly $2.2 billion at current prices, according to Santiment. Historically, whale accumulation has provided a floor during sell-offs, but with major players stepping back, the market lacks strong buy-side support, leaving BTC vulnerable to further cascades.

Trader Outlook: Narrow Band or Deep Breakdown

Analysts now outline three near-term paths. If BTC can stabilize above $107,000, a rebound to $112,000–$112,500 is feasible, where short liquidations could trigger a quick rally. If support collapses, downside levels include $103,000 and the April correction zone near $94,600. A third possibility is sideways drift between $108,000 and $112,000 on low volume, reflecting investor caution. With RSI sliding and futures exposure evaporating, the bearish tilt is stronger, though oversold conditions could ignite a sharp relief bounce if accumulation returns.

Altcoins Mirror Pressure as Ethereum Slips to $3,928

The sell-off is not isolated to Bitcoin. Ethereum (ETH-USD) slid 1% to $3,928, down nearly 12% for the week, marking its lowest level in seven weeks. XRP (XRP-USD) dropped 2.9% to $2.74, while Solana (SOL-USD) retreated 2.3% and Cardano (ADA-USD) lost 1.3%. Meme tokens echoed the weakness: Dogecoin (DOGE-USD) fell 2.2%, while the Trump-linked token slid 1.5%. The synchronous declines highlight how BTC’s breakdown continues to drive cross-crypto sentiment, with no decoupling from altcoins in sight.

Strategic Market Call: Bearish Near-Term Bias, Watching $103K

With BTC-USD trading around $109,300 and liquidity stacked just below, the market remains highly vulnerable. Options expiry and whale retreat leave little support until $107,300, and a retest of $103,000–$95,000 is increasingly likely. Institutional developments like Google’s $3B mining bet are reshaping the structural outlook, but for the immediate horizon, technicals and derivatives dominate. Given current positioning and price action, Bitcoin warrants a Sell rating in the near term, with re-entry opportunities only if support stabilizes near $103K or oversold capitulation sparks a sustainable rebound.

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