Bitcoin Price Forecast - BTC-USD Crash Wipes Out $19B; BTC Hits $102K, Whales Buy Dip

BTC-USD Plummets to $102,000 as $19B in Leverage Evaporates

The crypto market faced a historic liquidation on Saturday as Bitcoin (BTC-USD) crashed from $120,800 to $102,000, its steepest one-day decline in months. Data from CoinGlass confirmed over $19.3 billion in leveraged positions were wiped out within 24 hours, marking the largest liquidation since the pandemic-era crash of 2020. The collapse came directly after President Trump’s 100% tariff announcement on Chinese goods, sparking panic selling across global markets.

At press time, Bitcoin trades near $111,600, recovering roughly 9% from the lows. Despite the rebound, the shock to investor sentiment was severe—Ethereum (ETH-USD) fell below $3,700, Solana (SOL-USD) plunged to $137, and meme coins lost up to 60% in a matter of minutes. The Fear and Greed Index tumbled 19 points to “Fear,” signaling deep anxiety across the crypto sector.

Whales Quietly Accumulate as Retail Traders Flee

Blockchain data reveals that long-term investors took advantage of the chaos. The total number of Bitcoin holders increased from 56.92 million to 56.98 million, showing a net inflow of buyers during the selloff. On-chain metrics such as the Spent Coins Age Bands (SCAB) indicate that selling came mainly from short-term traders, while veteran holders remained inactive—a signal of conviction.
The 365-day to 2-year SCAB band dropped from 2,452 BTC to 535 BTC, confirming that older wallets stayed dormant. This rotation from weak hands to strong hands has historically marked cycle bottoms. Institutional inflows also stabilized, with large wallets moving over 7,800 BTC to cold storage since Friday.

Technical Reversal Signals: RSI Divergence Turns Bullish

Technically, Bitcoin’s structure is showing early signs of recovery. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) flipped from bearish to bullish divergence between September 25 and October 11—a pattern that previously preceded 15–20% recoveries. BTC now hovers above the 0.5 Fibonacci level at $111,400, with short-term resistance at $113,600, $116,800, and $120,800.
Analysts see downside protection near $106,400, with a key invalidation level at $101,900. A sustained close above $113,600 could trigger a momentum rebound toward $120,000–$122,000, setting up the potential for a retest of $140,000 by month-end, as projected by several AI-based trading models.

Whale Trader Profits $190 Million in Pre-Tariff Short

A separate investigation revealed a massive insider-like trade that preceded the crash. Just 30 minutes before Trump’s announcement, an anonymous trader opened a huge short position on Bitcoin—netting $88 million in profit before closing. The same wallet later mirrored similar trades across Ethereum and Solana, bringing total gains close to $190 million. Analysts labeled the timing “impossible to be coincidental,” highlighting the ongoing lack of regulatory oversight in crypto derivatives markets. The event underscores the vulnerability of the decentralized system to market manipulation, where massive leverage and opaque exchanges allow insiders to profit from privileged information.

Presale Tokens Attract Capital Rotation Amid Panic

While the broader crypto market bled red, capital flowed into presale projects offering stability through fixed pricing. Bitcoin Hyper (HYPER), a Layer 2 project focused on improving Bitcoin’s scalability with ZK-rollups and Solana Virtual Machine (SVM) integration, reached $23 million raised—up $5 million during the crash. Investors see HYPER’s fixed presale rate of $0.013095 as a hedge against volatility, locking in exposure before public listings.

Meanwhile, AlphaPepe (ALPE), a meme coin built on BNB Chain, surpassed $295,000 in presale volume and broke internal records as its second USDT pool exceeded $7,000. The project now counts over 2,300 holders with staking yields up to 85% APR. Despite Bitcoin’s carnage, retail momentum around AlphaPepe accelerated, proving investor appetite for meme-based projects that offer high upside with transparent tokenomics.

BTC’s Macro Context: Fear Meets Resilience

Globally, Bitcoin’s drop aligned with broader market turmoil. Trump’s tariff shock erased $2 trillion in U.S. equity value on Friday, and crypto markets followed. Yet even amid volatility, Bitcoin’s fundamentals remain intact. Exchange reserves fell to a 12-month low, indicating that investors are moving coins off exchanges rather than panic-selling. The Bitcoin market cap stands near $2.3 trillion, with dominance holding above 59%, signaling relative strength versus altcoins.
On-chain accumulation zones between $102,000–$107,000 are now identified as major support. Derivatives data from CME show open interest down 18%, reducing systemic leverage risk—a healthy sign of reset after overheated trading conditions.

Regional Activity: Switzerland and Asia Stay Active

Trading data show resilient activity from Swiss and Asian markets despite the correction. In Switzerland, BTC-USD averaged $112,980, with daily volume spikes of +240% compared to the week prior. Swiss institutional funds reportedly bought into the dip, aligning with European accumulation trends. In Asia, traders used the volatility to arbitrage between Binance, OKX, and BitMEX, where spreads widened to over $600 per BTC during peak volatility.

Market Momentum and Next Targets

Momentum traders now focus on the $113,600 resistance. A breakout could open the path to $120,000, while a rejection risks a pullback to $106,000. Data from TradingView show RSI at 49.5, neutral but climbing, and the MACD histogram at +472, hinting that selling pressure is fading. The Average True Range (ATR) at 3,615 points to ongoing volatility, but with potential for bullish continuation if macro sentiment stabilizes.

Long-Term Projections: Recovery Toward $140,000 Still in Play

Empirical modeling by several analysts, including econometric studies similar to Peterson’s bootstrapped chart, suggests Bitcoin retains a 50% probability of finishing October above $140,000. The model’s 68% confidence interval remains centered around $130,000, while only a 5% chance remains for BTC to close below $110,000 by month-end. Historical data reinforce October’s bullish bias: 71% of sessions on the 9th, 20th, and 28th have historically posted gains. This pattern supports a gradual recovery toward the $140,000–$150,000 zone as macro panic eases.

Market Verdict: Short-Term Volatile, Long-Term Bullish

Despite violent swings, Bitcoin’s core structure remains fundamentally sound. Strong hands are accumulating, leverage has flushed out, and presale innovation is absorbing speculative capital.

• Bitcoin (BTC-USD $111,600) — Buy accumulation zone $102K–$107K, short-term rebound expected

• Ethereum (ETH-USD $3,700) — Hold; potential recovery to $4,200 if BTC stabilizes

• Bitcoin Hyper (HYPER $0.0131) — Buy; whale accumulation strong, $23M milestone confirms confidence

• AlphaPepe (ALPE) — Speculative Buy; momentum-driven with retail traction and high staking yield

The crypto market’s reaction to the tariff shock marks a rare blend of fear and resilience. Bitcoin’s correction cleansed excess leverage, setting the stage for renewed strength heading into the final weeks of October. If momentum sustains above $111,400, a move toward $120,000 could unfold swiftly—reasserting Bitcoin’s role as the dominant risk barometer in global finance.

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