Bitcoin Price Forecast - BTC-USD Crashes Below $104,000, Can $100K Hold the Line?

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) Slips Below $104,000 as Long-Term Holders Trigger the Deepest Selloff Since June

Bitcoin’s latest downturn marks a defining test for digital markets as BTC-USD collapsed below $104,000, shedding nearly 4% in 24 hours and extending a multi-week correction that erased over $400 billion in total crypto market capitalization. The move comes amid a combination of forced liquidations, weakening institutional demand, and uncertainty surrounding Federal Reserve policy, culminating in what traders now call “Red October’s spillover” into November.

According to CoinGlass, over $1.27 billion in leveraged crypto positions were liquidated in a single day, one of the largest waves of forced selling in months. The majority came from long positions, indicating that speculative traders betting on continued upside were caught in a liquidation cascade as Bitcoin broke below its critical 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) around $109,800. The breach of this long-term technical level triggered algorithmic sell orders, driving prices rapidly toward $104,288, with intraday lows touching $104,139.

Technical Breakdown: 200-Day EMA Breach Confirms a Bearish Short-Term Bias

From a structural standpoint, BTC-USD has entered a short-term bearish phase after closing multiple sessions below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement from the April low ($74,508) to the October high ($126,199). The next significant level sits at the 61.8% retracement near $106,450, which Bitcoin decisively violated this week. Momentum indicators have turned sharply lower, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) dropping to 35, its weakest since April, signaling growing downside pressure.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) flipped negative on November 3, issuing a clear sell signal as the histogram crossed into red territory. Analysts tracking Fibonacci extensions now identify $100,000 as the first key psychological and technical test—representing a confluence of June’s swing lows and the 50% retracement mark. If this level fails, the decline could accelerate toward the $92,000–$94,000 zone, corresponding to the 61.8% retracement + 100% Fibonacci extension cluster. A break below $92,000 opens the path to the ultimate downside target near $74,000–$77,000, aligning with April’s trough and the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, implying a potential 30% total drawdown from current prices.

Institutional Outflows and ETF Redemptions Weaken Market Foundation

Institutional sentiment has turned defensive. Since October 29, spot Bitcoin ETFs—including BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), Fidelity’s Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC), and Grayscale’s GBTC—have collectively recorded $1.3 billion in net outflows, according to SoSoValue data. Meanwhile, spot Ether ETFs lost nearly $500 million over the same period, reflecting a broad withdrawal of institutional capital from digital assets.

On Monday alone, U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs registered another $186.5 million in redemptions, continuing a streak of negative flows that has persisted for over a week. The CME Bitcoin Futures annualized basis collapsed to 1.98%, its lowest in two years, showing that professional traders are avoiding long-term exposure. Even MicroStrategy (NASDAQ:MSTR), one of the largest corporate holders of Bitcoin, saw its shares decline over 5%, despite CEO Michael Saylor’s announcement of an additional 397 BTC purchase at an average price of $114,771, bringing the company’s total holdings to 641,205 BTC.

The divergence between institutional accumulation and short-term ETF outflows suggests that long-term believers remain committed while passive vehicles are experiencing redemption-driven volatility. However, that commitment has yet to stabilize spot prices.

Fed Policy Uncertainty Fuels the Risk-Off Spiral

The macro backdrop remains pivotal. Following the Federal Reserve’s 25-basis-point rate cut last week, Chair Jerome Powell’s cautious tone at the press conference erased earlier optimism. Market-implied probabilities for another rate cut in December plunged from 96% to below 70% within hours, leading traders to unwind risk-heavy positions across equities and crypto.

Statements from Fed Governor Lisa Cook, warning that inflation is “moving in the right direction but not fast enough,” and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly’s remark that the central bank should not commit to further cuts “until clearer evidence emerges,” reinforced the hawkish pivot. The result was a stronger U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) rising to 99.97, while the 10-year Treasury yield ticked up toward 4.09%—a combination historically bearish for speculative assets like Bitcoin.

The consequence was immediate: volatility spiked, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index flipped from neutral to fear, and Bitcoin’s U.S. session returns collapsed from +0.94% on October 29 to –4.56% by November 4.

Long-Term Holders Add Selling Pressure as On-Chain Data Confirms Profit Taking

On-chain analytics indicate that Bitcoin’s decline is being driven primarily by long-term holders—early investors taking profits after the 70% rally from April to October. Lookonchain reported that historic wallets have transferred over 16,000 BTC to major exchanges since October 1, with two large holders alone—Owen Gunden (1,289 BTC) and wallet 1011short (13,000 BTC)—depositing substantial amounts to Kraken, Coinbase, and Binance.

This wave of supply redistribution aligns with what QCP Capital called a “legacy holder reset,” a recurring pattern in mid-cycle consolidations. Despite the selling pressure, the market has absorbed roughly 405,000 BTC in legacy supply over the past month without breaking below $100,000, demonstrating the underlying demand resilience.

CryptoQuant’s NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) metric currently reads 0.47, down from 0.55 in early October and the lowest since April 8. Historically, similar NUPL drops (to 0.42–0.44) have marked accumulation phases before multi-month rallies.

Comparative Asset Flows: Bitcoin’s Correction vs Gold and Equities

Despite the sharp retreat, Bitcoin remains a top performer over the last 12 months, outperforming both gold (up 46%) and the S&P 500. Yet, when priced against these benchmarks, Bitcoin’s relative value still lags. The BTC-to-Gold ratio, which peaked near 60 in early 2024, now stands around 52, implying that Bitcoin’s purchasing power in gold terms remains 13% below its prior cycle peak. Similarly, the BTC/S&P 500 ratio, once at 19.6, sits near 17.4, suggesting that Bitcoin’s relative outperformance has narrowed even as nominal prices surged.

Historically, such divergences occur in early-stage capital rotations—liquidity flows first into gold and equities before reentering high-beta assets like Bitcoin. With gold cooling after touching $4,000 and equities showing renewed momentum, Bitcoin may soon regain leadership as capital rotates back into risk assets.

Market Sentiment and Volatility Outlook

The Crypto Volatility Index (CVI) jumped 11% to 83.2, the highest since July, while open interest in perpetual futures dropped 14%, reflecting forced deleveraging. Exchange reserves have risen to 2.1 million BTC, up 3% month-over-month, signaling increased sell-side activity. However, long-term metrics—such as the Hodl Waves showing coins aged over one year—still represent 69% of total supply, one of the highest in Bitcoin’s history.

Market makers now expect Bitcoin to trade between $94,000 and $118,000 over the next several weeks. Lacie Zhang of Bitget Wallet noted that “the lower bound represents a retracement consistent with subdued ETF inflows, while the upper range captures recovery potential if macro conditions stabilize.”

Derivatives and Leverage Positioning Show Room for Further Capitulation

Futures data confirm declining enthusiasm. The BTC perpetual funding rate on major exchanges, which averaged 0.025% through October, has dropped to 0.006%, indicating reduced leverage on the long side. Meanwhile, the put-call ratio on Deribit rose to 0.72, its highest since August, reflecting increased demand for downside protection.

The aggregate open interest on CME Bitcoin futures now stands at $4.5 billion, down from $6.2 billion at the October peak. Institutional traders appear to be reducing exposure, preferring to accumulate cash positions rather than extend risk in uncertain macro conditions.

Macro Outlook: Historical Context Suggests Potential for Bullish Reversal

Despite near-term weakness, historical data show that every major correction following a post-halving rally has preceded a new cycle high within six months. Rachel Lin, CEO of SynFutures, emphasized that “corrections of this magnitude tend to be mid-cycle resets, not structural reversals.”

Bitcoin’s mean return in November historically averages 42%, with 9 out of the past 12 years delivering positive gains during this month. If that pattern holds, the asset could rebound toward $120,000–$150,000 by year-end, provided it sustains above $94,000 support and ETF flows stabilize.

Final Technical Outlook and Verdict: BTC-USD Entering Oversold Zone

At present, BTC-USD trades around $102,487, down 3.77%, with an intraday low of $102,309 and a 24-hour volume of $38.6 billion. Short-term momentum remains negative; however, the oversold RSI and historical seasonality support the case for a medium-term rebound once forced liquidations ease.

If the $100,000 psychological threshold holds, Bitcoin could consolidate within the $100,000–$110,000 range before resuming its uptrend. Breaching that level, however, would confirm a bearish continuation toward $92,000 and possibly $77,000–$74,000, representing a 30% decline from current levels.

Verdict: Based on current data, Bitcoin (BTC-USD) is rated Hold with short-term Bearish bias, awaiting confirmation at the $100,000 support level. The long-term structure remains bullish as on-chain accumulation persists, but near-term macro headwinds and institutional outflows warrant caution. A decisive close above $110,000 would flip the bias back to bullish, while failure to defend $100,000 would expose downside targets toward $94,000 and $77,000.

This is the inflection point for Bitcoin’s cycle—the difference between correction and collapse lies in whether $100,000 holds.

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