Bitcoin Price Forecast - BTC-USD Drops to $103K as Death Cross Nears, Analysts See 30% Slide

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) Faces Technical Breakdown as $100K Becomes the Last Line of Defense

BTC Price Today and Market Overview

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) retreated again on Tuesday, November 11 2025, extending its correction from October’s all-time high of $126,080. The cryptocurrency traded near $103,296, down 2.32 % on the session after briefly touching an intraday peak of $107,482. That rejection at resistance aligned with the 38.2 % Fibonacci retracement, the 200-day EMA, and the psychological $107K zone—together forming a decisive technical ceiling.
The coin now sits only 4.8 % above its key structural base at $100,000, a level that marks the midpoint of the latest rally and coincides with the 50 % Fibonacci retracement. Below this threshold, chart models expose a vacuum that stretches to $92,000–$94,000, then ultimately $74,000, Bitcoin’s April 2025 low. Market data from multiple exchanges show fading momentum: 50 % of sessions over the past 30 days closed green, and aggregate bullish positioning has dropped to 36 % from 58 % two weeks earlier.

Death Cross Approaches: Why the $111K–$110K Zone Matters

Bitcoin’s 50-day EMA has fallen to $111,864, closing the gap on the 200-day EMA at $110,364. The imminent death cross—where the 50-EMA moves below the 200-EMA—signals a major loss of bullish momentum. Historically, such crossovers have preceded deep retracements of 25–40 %, particularly when accompanied by declining open interest and reduced wallet activity.
Technicians warn that the cross could materialize within days if prices remain below $108K, reinforcing the probability of a medium-term bearish phase. Should that occur while BTC trades under both moving averages, the trend confirmation would likely trigger algorithmic selling and force deleveraging across derivatives markets.

Momentum Indicators Flash Caution as Fear Dominates Sentiment

The Fear & Greed Index dropped to 29, deep in “Fear” territory, underscoring deteriorating conviction among retail and institutional traders alike. RSI (14) sits at 44.46, trending downward from 52.3 last week, showing waning upside energy.
Volume analytics further confirm cooling enthusiasm—seven-day average spot turnover has slipped 18 % w/w, while perpetual futures funding rates have turned marginally negative on Binance and OKX, reflecting a net short bias.
The on-chain Cost Basis Distribution (CBD) indicator from Glassnode reveals clustering of realized prices around $105K–$108K, suggesting that recent buyers are already sitting at break-even or small losses. This raises liquidation risk should the coin pierce $100K and cascade toward the $92K interim floor.

Key Support Layers: $100K, $94K, and the April Lows at $74K

The $100,000 zone remains Bitcoin’s final structural pillar. It aggregates institutional accumulation from September and aligns with the 50 % Fibonacci retracement of the rally from $74K to $126K. A decisive daily close below that level would expose $92,000–$94,000, reinforced by the 61.8 % retracement and May swing lows.
If that fails, downside projections widen dramatically toward $74,420, the year-to-date low. That zone marks the confluence of April’s accumulation base and major on-chain realized support, where whales historically increased exposure. Breach of that line would technically reset the 2025 bull structure and confirm entry into a deeper bear cycle.

Institutional Positioning and Corporate Activity: Strategy Inc. and Chanos Exit

Corporate flows have done little to stabilize sentiment. Strategy Inc. (NASDAQ:MSTR)—the largest corporate Bitcoin holder—added 487 BTC this week, lifting its total to 641,692 coins, equivalent to roughly $67 billion at current prices. Yet the incremental buying failed to spark a bid as traders viewed it as symbolic rather than catalytic.
In contrast, veteran short-seller Jim Chanos closed his long-standing short on Strategy’s shares, arguing that the company’s valuation had compressed to parity with its Bitcoin holdings. Strategy’s enterprise-value-to-Bitcoin NAV multiple slid from 2.5× to 1.23× year-to-date. While his exit removed one bearish overhang, it simultaneously highlighted the market’s waning appetite for paying premiums above spot crypto exposure.

Macro Drivers: Fed Path, Dollar Strength, and Shutdown Relief

Progress toward ending the U.S. government shutdown briefly lifted overall risk sentiment, yet capital inflows bypassed crypto and flowed into equities. The Dow Jones (+0.65 %) and S&P 500 (-0.07 %) diverged as investors sought safety in value stocks. Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) hovered near 99.25 (-0.21 %), offering limited tailwinds for Bitcoin, which typically benefits from a weaker greenback.
Monetary policy expectations remain the key macro variable. Futures imply a 64 % probability of a December Fed rate cut, but policymakers’ “go-slow” language has muted enthusiasm for high-beta assets. Historically, Bitcoin rallies follow confirmed easing cycles rather than anticipation phases, meaning the market could stay range-bound until hard policy action arrives.

On-Chain Activity and Network Health: Participation Shrinks

Daily active addresses have trended downward since May 2025, even as price hovered near record highs. The drop in network participants—now -17 % m/m—signals that the rally was fueled more by leverage than organic adoption. Transaction counts have flattened around 270K per day, far below the 340K average seen during late-2024 accumulation.
This structural divergence between price and activity has historically preceded medium-term retracements. With new wallets stagnating near 980 million cumulative addresses, the next bullish impulse will require renewed inflows from retail or institutional custodians re-accumulating at discounted levels.

Derivatives Landscape: Open Interest Signals Leverage Persistence

Despite falling spot prices, derivatives data show sustained risk appetite. Open interest across futures and perpetual contracts hit $68.96 billion on November 11, just 5 % below its yearly high. This reflects speculative confidence but also amplifies the potential for forced unwinds.
Funding rates near zero indicate equilibrium, yet any sharp move below $100K could trigger widespread liquidations, especially with estimated $3.2 billion in leveraged longs clustered between $100K–$102K. Market-makers have begun widening spreads on CME Bitcoin futures, signaling expectations of higher realized volatility through late November.

Altcoin and Cross-Market Correlations

The weakness extended to major altcoins. Ethereum (ETH-USD) slid 1.9 % to $3,514, XRP (XRP-USD) fell 3.3 % to $2.44, and Solana (SOL-USD) dropped 3.2 % to $160.77. The aggregate crypto market capitalization decreased to $4.08 trillion, a weekly loss of $210 billion.
Correlation between BTC and the Nasdaq 100 has risen back to 0.79, indicating that Bitcoin continues to behave like a high-beta risk asset rather than a safe haven. Analysts note that unless macro conditions decouple—through liquidity injections or a sharp dollar reversal—crypto may track equity volatility through year-end.

Investor Psychology: From Euphoria to Controlled Fear

Market sentiment has undergone a dramatic pivot from October’s euphoria to November’s caution. Bearish positioning among retail accounts has climbed to 36 %, while long-short ratios on major exchanges have normalized near parity. Institutional desks describe the shift as “orderly risk reduction” rather than panic, consistent with the notion that traders are waiting for capitulation rather than chasing it.
Social-media data show a 42 % drop in Bitcoin keyword searches compared to mid-October, underscoring fading speculative excitement. Historically, troughs in social interest have preceded consolidation phases rather than immediate recoveries.

Technical Structure and Scenarios Ahead

Bitcoin remains confined within a narrowing range between $104,000 support and $109,000 resistance. A clean break above $109,386, the 38.2 % Fibonacci retracement, would expose $112,600–$115,800, aligning with the 0.5–0.618 retracement zones and potentially negating the death-cross risk.
Conversely, sustained closes below $104K would reopen the path toward $100K, then $94K, and eventually $74K, corresponding to a 30 % slide from current levels. The structure suggests volatility compression ahead of a decisive breakout, with futures positioning hinting the first move could be downward before any sustainable rebound.

Analyst Outlook and Strategic View

Macro strategist Joel Kruger emphasized that “the combination of soft labor data and tentative fiscal progress has created an ambiguous environment—favorable for volatility but not for conviction.” His view aligns with on-chain readings pointing to distribution rather than accumulation.
Technical consensus among institutional desks now pegs the short-term trading bias as bearish, with risk skewing toward further downside unless BTC reclaims $110K. However, the structural bullish thesis over a 12-month horizon remains intact provided $74K holds as cycle support, given sustained institutional ownership above 60 % of total supply.

Verdict: Short-Term Bearish, Long-Term Accumulation Bias (Hold)

Based on the confluence of signals—approaching death cross, fading momentum, weakening on-chain activity, and macro hesitation—Bitcoin (BTC-USD) carries a short-term Bearish rating with potential downside toward $92K–$94K, and an extreme low of $74K if supports fail.
Nevertheless, structural metrics such as whale wallet accumulation and institutional dominance justify maintaining a Hold stance rather than outright Sell for long-term investors. The next credible Buy signal would require a reclaim of $110K with volume confirmation above $25 billion daily. Until then, Bitcoin remains in a corrective phase—driven more by leveraged positioning than fundamental deterioration—awaiting capitulation or a macro-policy catalyst to revive the trend.

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