Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC-USD Holds $113,361 as ETF Demand Counters $16.5B Selloff

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) Holds $113,000 After Volatile Week

Bitcoin trades at $113,361, gaining 0.4% in the last 24 hours, with highs of $113,874 and lows near $111,369. The market cap stands at $2.25 trillion on daily turnover above $48 billion. The week saw sharp swings, including a sell-off from $117,998 highs on Sept. 18 to $111,066, triggered by $1.62B in leveraged liquidations and Powell’s caution on asset valuations. Despite the reset, BTC remains in a tight band between $112,000 support and $114,700 resistance, a range that now defines the next decisive move.

Institutional Accumulation vs Whale Distribution

On-chain data shows whales offloaded 147,000 BTC ($16.5B) over the past month, cashing profits near cycle highs. This distribution created short-term pressure, with analysts flagging possible tests toward $109,899 (21-week MA and bull-bear dividing line). Yet, corporate treasuries and ETFs are offsetting the supply. MicroStrategy leads with 638,985 BTC, while ETFs like BlackRock’s IBIT add another 1,430 BTC daily, alongside 1,755 BTC corporate purchases. Against a mining output of 900 BTC/day, demand exceeds new supply by more than +2,200 BTC/day, forming a structural scarcity floor.

Technical Landscape: Support at $112k, Resistance at $114-115k

Price action reflects a consolidation phase. Intraday rebounds from $111,000 lows highlight strong dip buying. Technical levels to monitor:

• Immediate support: $112,000 (23.6% Fib).

• Deeper support: $107,000 (200-day EMA + 38.2% Fib).

• Psychological floor: $100,000 (50% Fib, June pivot).

• Overhead resistance: $114,000–$115,000, where failed breakouts capped prior rallies.
  Momentum indicators remain mixed: RSI at 46–51, neutral; ADX at 18, weak trend; MACD slightly negative. Oscillators confirm indecision, with volume signals subdued. Bulls require a breakout above $114,700 on high volume (>50k BTC) to re-engage August highs near $124,000.

Macro Drivers and Central Bank Narrative

Deutsche Bank projected Bitcoin could join gold on central bank balance sheets by 2030, marking a shift from speculative asset to alternative reserve. Analysts argue BTC could coexist with gold, supported by regulatory frameworks like MiCA in Europe and U.S. ETF approvals. Current valuation at $113,000–118,000 aligns with forecasts calling for a year-end retest of $120,000. Longer term, Dan Tapiero and Jack Dorsey maintain that BTC could hit $1 million by 2030, implying a $20 trillion market cap, or just 2% of projected global assets.

Corporate Adoption and Seasonal Tailwinds

Michael Saylor reiterated that corporate adoption is structurally bullish, replacing dividends and buybacks with BTC reserves. His thesis: “the world ran on gold-backed credit for 300 years; the next 300 will run on digital gold-backed credit.” Historical Q4 flows also favor bulls — October through December is Bitcoin’s strongest quarter, with average double-digit gains. Seasonal optimism places BTC’s year-end target at $124,000+, contingent on maintaining the $112k base.

Investor Positioning and Sentiment Indicators

The Fear & Greed Index sits at 43, signaling cautious optimism. Funding rates normalized after the $1.62B wipeout, while order books show firm absorption between $110,000 and $113,000, with 5.5% of supply now locked in this band. Mid-sized investors are stepping in, absorbing whale exits and reinforcing price stability. However, analysts warn that a decisive break below $111,800 could cascade toward $106,000, or even $96,000 in extreme bearish scenarios.

Verdict on BTC-USD:

Despite whale selling and volatile resets, institutional accumulation, ETF inflows, and Q4 seasonality outweigh downside risks. With demand outpacing supply by +2,200 BTC/day and corporate adoption anchoring support, Bitcoin remains structurally bullish. Breakout confirmation requires clearing $114,700 with conviction. For now, the setup supports a Buy stance, with a medium-term target of $124,000 and long-term structural potential far higher.

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