Bitcoin Price Forecast - BTC-USD Holds Above $91,000 as Global Liquidity Expands and Fed Cut Bets Ignite $100K Outlook

Bitcoin Price Forecast (BTC-USD) Extends Rebound as Liquidity Floods Back Into Markets

Bitcoin held firm near $91,500, up 0.5% in 24 hours, after climbing from last week’s $80,000 low — its sharpest recovery since April. The move coincides with rising global liquidity and revived Federal Reserve rate cut expectations. The CME FedWatch Tool now prices an 87% probability of a 25 bps cut in December, up from 39% a week earlier, prompting renewed inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs and risk assets.

Stablecoin Supply Hits $160B — Clear Signal of Liquidity Expansion

According to CryptoQuant and XWIN Research Japan, total stablecoin circulation reached a record $160 billion, surpassing the 2021 cycle peak. Analysts view this as the most accurate measure of crypto-market liquidity, far superior to the traditional M2 money supply correlation. Historically, stablecoin growth has preceded every major Bitcoin rally — including the 2021 bull run and the 2024–2025 recovery. The increase signals institutional capital returning through DeFi liquidity pools and ETF channels.

Hidden Bullish Divergence Forms on MACD; RSI Deep in Oversold Zone

Technical models from Blockzeit identify a hidden bullish divergence on the BTC/USDT MACD. While price printed a higher low at $85,000, the histogram fell to –1.97, indicating waning downside momentum. The RSI at 35.7 is deeply oversold, suggesting a likely 10–20% bounce if momentum confirms. The 50-day SMA at $110,992 caps resistance, while the 200-day SMA at $88,328 serves as a strong support base. Previous divergences this year triggered rallies of +17% and +23%, hinting that a break above $95,000 could quickly extend toward $100,000.

Massive Options Expiry Anchors BTC Near $91K — Max Pain at $101K

Roughly 147,000 BTC options worth $13.7 billion expired today on Deribit, with max pain positioned at $101,000 — implying upward pressure. The put/call ratio of 0.58 reveals a market leaning bullish, with open interest concentrated between $90K–$105K. Deribit data suggests market makers could pin prices higher to minimize payouts. Ethereum (ETH-USD) followed suit with $1.7 billion in expiries, a 0.48 put/call ratio, and a max pain at $3,400 — above spot at $3,024.

Short-Term Holders Reduce Losses, Market Cleanses Excess Leverage

CryptoQuant reports a sharp drop in realized losses from 67,000 BTC to –11,600 BTC since November 22. This indicates that weak hands are exiting and that short-term holders (STHs) are near breakeven levels at $95,000. Analysts interpret these “quiet” flows as a healthy consolidation phase, preparing the ground for the next upward leg.

Fed Injects $125B in Stealth Liquidity — Hidden Catalyst for BTC Rally

Behind the scenes, the Federal Reserve discreetly injected $125 billion in short-term funding via repo and SRF operations between October 31 and November 3 — its largest liquidity push since 2020. These moves quietly boosted bank reserves and eased credit tensions, reinforcing demand for alternative assets like Bitcoin.

Global Monetary Easing Wave Reinforces Crypto Bid

MacroBond data shows that 90% of global central banks have either cut or held interest rates steady over the past six months — the highest proportion since 2020. Over 316 global rate cuts have been recorded in two years, surpassing the 2008–2010 crisis total. Analysts view this synchronized easing as the core driver behind Bitcoin’s recovery, mirroring historical correlations between monetary liquidity cycles and BTC price expansions.

Technical Outlook: BTC Needs $93K–$96K Break for Bullish Continuation

Matrixport and Glassnode both highlight the $93,000–$96,000 resistance zone as the key short-term pivot. Breaking and closing above this range could open the path toward $100,000–$108,000. Conversely, failure to hold $88,000 risks a retest of $80,000 support. Futures funding remains negative, indicating that most traders remain short — historically a contrarian buy signal.

TradingNews.com Verdict

Momentum across technical, macro, and liquidity indicators aligns in favor of further upside. The combination of record $160B stablecoin supply, global easing, and Fed liquidity injections positions Bitcoin for continuation above $95K into December.

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