Bitcoin Price Forecast - BTC-USD Nears $120K as ETF Inflows Surge and U.S. Shutdown Creates Perfect Storm

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) Breaks $119,000 as Shutdown, ETF Flows and Halving Momentum Collide

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) surged to $119,500 this week, its highest in nearly two months, before consolidating near $118,600. That rally capped a 10% weekly gain and comes as Washington entered a government shutdown, ETFs absorbed record inflows, and on-chain data revealed mounting liquidity pressure at higher levels. The global crypto market cap rose to $4.17 trillion, up 4% in 24 hours, with Bitcoin holding 56.7% dominance, a reminder of its unmatched position in digital assets. Ethereum (ETH-USD) traded above $4,368, Ripple’s XRP (XRP-USD) climbed to $2.96, and Solana (SOL-USD) jumped past $223, but Bitcoin remains the driver.

Liquidity and Technical Breakout Place $120K in Focus for BTC

On the daily chart, Bitcoin decisively reclaimed the $114K support, a level that had capped bulls for weeks. Breaking through $116K triggered a liquidity sweep that forced out shorts, sending price into the $118K zone just below the critical $120K–$124K supply block. Liquidity heatmaps show dense clusters stacked above $120K, suggesting a breakout could fuel liquidation-driven rallies into $124K–$130K.

The 4-hour chart confirms this structure. Bitcoin has transformed $114K–$115K into a demand base. As long as bids defend that block, the path remains higher. RSI prints above 62 on daily candles, MACD has crossed into positive territory, and Bollinger bands show expansion with the upper band near $118,300. Despite an RSI spike to 90 on shorter timeframes, historically such “overbought” levels can persist deep into parabolic legs.

ETF Inflows Hit $1.6 Billion in Three Days, BlackRock’s IBIT Emerges as Dominant Player

Flows into U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs have reignited institutional demand. In just three sessions, ETFs absorbed $1.6 billion net, with BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) accounting for $405 million in a single day. IBIT has now broken into the top 20 ETFs by AUM with $40 billion, up 85% in the last year, and could enter the top 10 by 2026 if the pace persists. Fidelity’s FBTC added $179 million, while the broader market saw $676 million in just one day of October inflows.

These inflows offset derivatives market caution. Options skew shows heavy hedging for downside, yet implied volatility remains cheap compared with realized swings. That imbalance suggests room for aggressive positioning if Bitcoin clears $120K.

On-Chain Accumulation and Treasury Moves Bolster the Bull Case

Japanese investment group Metaplanet expanded its Bitcoin treasury, adding 5,268 BTC valued at $623 million at an average $116,870 per coin, bringing total holdings to 30,823 BTC. This accumulation cements its position as the fourth-largest publicly traded Bitcoin holder. On-chain data also highlights steady long-term holder accumulation, now surpassing 298,000 BTC in “accumulation addresses.” The Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR) has flipped bullish, implying sidelined liquidity is primed to rotate into Bitcoin.

Whales and corporate treasuries are not the only force. Retail speculation has intensified via Bitcoin Hyper (HYPER), a new Layer-2 project on Solana Virtual Machine rails, which has raised $19.7 million in presale. The parallel capital allocation to BTC-linked projects underscores how Bitcoin’s strength drives value across the ecosystem.

Shutdown Fallout, Fed Blindness and Gold Correlation Shape Macro Context

The U.S. shutdown, now furloughing 750,000 federal workers at $400 million daily cost, has frozen critical data releases including nonfarm payrolls. This blinds the Fed at a critical time, delaying signals into the October 29 meeting. New York Fed President John Williams emphasized cuts remain data-dependent—yet the data is absent.

Against that backdrop, Bitcoin has traded like a hard asset. Gold (GC=F) gained 12% in September, its strongest rally since 2011, while Bitcoin has mirrored that move with a six-day 9% climb. The correlation between BTC and gold tightened as both assets absorbed capital fleeing bonds and equities during policy paralysis.

France’s Fiscal Crisis and ECB Liquidity Risks Fuel European Bid for BTC

Beyond U.S. politics, Europe has entered the picture. France’s budget deficit ballooned to 5.8% of GDP in 2024, far above the EU’s 3% threshold. With the Bank of France posting €7.7 billion losses, the ECB faces mounting pressure to inject liquidity. Arthur Hayes of BitMEX argued that such monetary expansion could echo U.S. QE programs that helped propel Bitcoin from $6,000 to $69,000 in 2020–21. Investors in Europe have already begun reallocating from euros to Bitcoin, fearing capital controls or stealth taxation.

Halving Dynamics: History and the $201K Median Forecast

The 2024 halving marked Bitcoin’s issuance cut to 3.125 BTC per block. Historically, halvings have set the stage for exponential upside:

• 2012 halving preceded an 8,000% gain in one year.

• 2016 halving led to a 30x run into 2017’s peak.

• 2020 halving fueled a 567% surge in the following year.

This cycle began shakier, with Bitcoin falling post-halving and ETF outflows spooking markets. But by October 2025, Bitcoin has rebounded 86% from April lows to $118,500. Analysts from a 16-forecast aggregation project a median 2026 price of $201,000, with forecasts spanning $75K on the cautious end to $450K at the extreme bullish end. That 69% upside from current levels represents the benchmark expectation.

Technical Barriers and Risk Zones for BTC Traders

Key resistance sits between $120K–$124K, home to heavy liquidity pools and sell-side order blocks. Clearing this range opens the path to $130K–$135K, where liquidity heatmaps show major concentrations of shorts. On the downside, $114K–$115K remains the must-hold support, with deeper pullbacks risking $110K.

Momentum indicators support bulls but with caution:

• RSI at 62 daily, overbought short-term at 90 on 4H.

• MACD flipped positive.

• ADX at 13.23 signals weak trend strength but strengthening structure.

Verdict on Bitcoin (BTC-USD): Buy, Sell, or Hold?

The convergence of catalysts—shutdown-driven macro uncertainty, ETF inflows exceeding $1.6B in three days, corporate treasury accumulation like Metaplanet, and halving-driven scarcity—tilts the balance bullish. Technicals point to $120K–$124K as the immediate test, and breaking this range could ignite a run toward $135K.

Given the strength of institutional flows and the macro backdrop of data blindness and fiscal crisis in Europe, Bitcoin (BTC-USD) is a Buy, with the short-term risk of $114K retests outweighed by the medium-term reward of a $130K–$135K breakout and the longer-term halving cycle path toward $200K+.

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