Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC-USD Rebounds Above $116K With Fed in Focus
BTC Forecast Driven by Whale Buys, ETF Flows, and Key Support Levels | That's TradingNEWS
Bitcoin Price Surges as Powell’s Jackson Hole Speech Triggers Market Repricing
BTC-USD Breaks Above $116K After Six-Week Low
Bitcoin (BTC-USD) staged a powerful rebound on Friday, climbing from a six-week trough of $111,658 to close above $116,800. The rally followed Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole remarks, where he acknowledged that policy was restrictive and signaled the possibility of a September rate cut. Bitcoin gained over 3% intraday, pushing its market cap above $2.32 trillion with daily turnover rising 15.3% to $69.13 billion. Compared with the Dow Jones (^DJI) surge of +903 points, Bitcoin once again outpaced equities in speed and volatility, reinforcing its role as a liquidity hedge in a dovish policy turn.
Powell’s Pivot and the Federal Reserve Impact on BTC
Powell’s tone at Jackson Hole marked a subtle but critical shift. The Fed chair said that the “balance of risks” may soon justify adjusting policy, and traders immediately priced in a 91% probability of a 25 bps September cut, up from 70% earlier this week. U.S. yields slid, with the 10-year (^TNX) down 7 bps to 4.26% and the 2-year yield losing 8 bps to 3.70%, diminishing the appeal of Treasuries relative to digital assets. Bitcoin rallied in lockstep, joined by Ethereum (ETH-USD) +12% to $4,819, Solana (SOL-USD) +9.3% to $197, and XRP (XRP-USD) +6% to $3.05. The crypto market capitalization regained ground toward the $4 trillion threshold.
Whale Accumulation and On-Chain Metrics
On-chain dynamics point to resilience. The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) sits at 1.0, showing equilibrium between profit-taking and loss realization, a level historically associated with bottoming phases. Whale activity confirms conviction: addresses holding more than 10,000 BTC added 16,000 coins, worth nearly $1.9 billion, during the latest pullback. This accumulation contrasts with retail traders who liquidated at the dip, transferring supply from weak to strong hands. Heatmaps reveal a dense cost cluster between $113,000–$120,000, reinforcing this zone as both support and accumulation territory.
Options Market Positioning and Institutional Caution
Despite whale strength, derivatives markets lean defensive. On August 22, 34,000 BTC options expired with a notional value of $3.82 billion, producing a put/call ratio of 1.3 and a “max pain” price at $118,000. The 180-day put/call imbalance has dropped to –0.42, its lowest since mid-2023, highlighting increased demand for protective hedges. Imran Lakha of Options Insights noted a “regime shift” as institutional desks hedge downside rather than chase upside momentum. Meanwhile, Greeks.live reported stronger sentiment in Ethereum options, with a max pain point at $4,250, suggesting traders expect ETH to sustain relative strength against BTC.
Technical Patterns: Triple Bottom Versus Wedge Breakdown
Charts offer conflicting narratives. Bulls point to a triple-bottom pattern on the daily chart, with the Chaikin Money Flow turning positive and targeting $120,900–$124,648. Fibonacci projections extend to $161,383 if momentum resumes. Bears, however, see an ascending wedge formation, a structure that often precedes breakdowns. The Guppy Multiple Moving Average shows BTC trading below short-term moving average clusters, historically a red flag. Downside risks include a slide toward $106,000–$103,000, or in severe liquidation conditions, a drop below $90,000.
Fed Dissent and Macro Risk Factors
Not all Fed voices echoed Powell. Governor Beth Hammack cautioned earlier this week against premature easing, warning it could reignite inflation. Her hawkish tone briefly knocked Bitcoin to $112,000, underscoring how sensitive BTC remains to policy rhetoric. Beyond the Fed, geopolitical currents — from U.S.-China tariff escalations to European growth concerns — add crosswinds. A stronger U.S. dollar would undermine Bitcoin’s rally, while extended trade frictions could simultaneously reinforce its appeal as an alternative store of value.
Altcoin Rotation and ETF Flows
Altcoin flows revealed divergence. Ethereum ETFs absorbed $287.6 million in inflows on Thursday after four days of outflows, signaling institutional willingness to rotate into ETH. In contrast, Bitcoin ETFs recorded $1.15 billion in outflows across five sessions, marking the weakest week since February. Institutional reallocations underscore Bitcoin’s short-term vulnerability even as whales privately accumulate. On the innovation front, Bitcoin Hyper, a scaling solution using Solana’s virtual machine, raised $11.3 million in presale funding, reflecting continued investor appetite for BTC infrastructure upgrades.
Positioning: Buy, Sell, or Hold on BTC-USD?
The balance of data suggests a tactical hold with a bullish tilt. Support at $112K–$113K has proven resilient, while Powell’s dovish pivot is structurally supportive. Whale accumulation of 16,000 BTC adds weight to the bullish case. Yet, derivatives sentiment warns of institutional caution, and technicals present both breakout and breakdown scenarios. A daily close above $116.8K strengthens odds of retesting the $124K all-time high, while sustained trade below $111K risks exposing the $100K psychological floor.
