Bitcoin Price Forecast - BTC-USD Reclaims $113,450 as Whales Buy $87K Blocks, MicroStrategy Expands to 640K BTC, ETFs Shed $903M

Bitcoin Price Forecast - BTC-USD Climbs Back to $113,450 as $1.5B in Liquidations Hit, ETFs See $903M Outflows, MicroStrategy Buys 196 BTC

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) Rebounds Above $113,000 as Whales Accumulate

After a volatile September, Bitcoin (BTC-USD) clawed back above the $113,000 level, last trading near $113,450 with a 3.2% daily gain. The bounce came after last week’s brutal selloff that pushed BTC to a three-week low below $109,000 and erased over $150 billion from the broader crypto market cap. On-chain trackers confirmed that large holders—so-called whales—stepped in aggressively, with individual buys surpassing $80,000 and institutional allocations providing fresh support. This buying activity followed a $22 billion options expiry at quarter-end that had intensified liquidations and wiped out $1.5 billion in long positions across exchanges in a single day.

Technical Levels Dominate Market Sentiment

Charts show BTC-USD holding firm above the critical $110,000–$109,500 zone, which has now acted as support multiple times this month. Resistance remains layered at $113,500 and $116,000, where sellers have historically absorbed demand. A confirmed breakout above $113,500 could open the door to $118,000 and eventually retest the August all-time high of $124,500. On the downside, failure to defend $109,000 could trigger deeper corrections toward $106,000 or even $104,000. Relative Strength Index readings near 43 suggest subdued momentum, though historical setups at these levels have preceded rallies of 20% or more within weeks.

ETF Flows Signal Shifting Institutional Sentiment

Data from Coinglass showed U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs suffered $903 million in net outflows last week, snapping a four-week streak of inflows. Fidelity’s FBTC led withdrawals, losing $767 million, while BlackRock’s IBIT stood out with $174 million in fresh allocations, bringing its cumulative intake to over $60 billion. Analysts at MEXC Research framed the outflows as quarter-end portfolio rebalancing rather than a collapse in appetite. Even with temporary exits, institutional participation remains dominant: BlackRock, Grayscale, and other vehicles collectively control well over 900,000 BTC, underscoring how ETF flows have become the main driver of price action.

MicroStrategy and Marathon Reinforce Long-Term Conviction

Corporate treasuries continue to anchor the bull case. MicroStrategy (MSTR) disclosed a fresh purchase of 196 BTC at an average of $113,048, worth $22.1 million, bringing its total holdings to 640,031 BTC at a cost basis of $73,983. Shares of MSTR jumped 3.5% on the news, trading near $523. Marathon Digital Holdings (MARA), the second-largest corporate holder, controls 52,477 BTC, while ETFs and trusts like BlackRock’s IBIT and Grayscale’s GBTC extend institutional dominance. This long-term conviction provides a floor for BTC even in periods of heightened volatility.

Momentum Indicators and Market Psychology

The 600,000 daily transaction threshold highlighted by CryptoQuant analysts has once again become a “heartbeat indicator” for bullish momentum. Each time network activity crosses that level, historical data show upward price acceleration follows. Current network counts are edging toward this range, coinciding with rising liquidity and higher volume on rebounds. Market psychology is also shifting—social sentiment on X (formerly Twitter) shows over 60% of traders expect BTC to reclaim $120,000 before year-end, and option market positioning is now skewed toward $130,000 strike prices for December.

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