Bitcoin Price Forecast - BTC-USD Reclaims $115,000 After $19B Crash as Trump Calms Markets

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) Stages a Violent Rebound After $19 Billion Liquidation Shock

Bitcoin clawed back above $115 000 on Monday after enduring the heaviest single-day wash-out in crypto history. The weekend rout erased almost $19 billion in leveraged positions and dragged BTC-USD to $102 000, its lowest mark since June. By early European trade, prices had recovered +3.2% to $115 400, while the total crypto market cap surged back above $4 trillion, erasing half of Friday’s draw-down.

The collapse began when President Donald Trump announced plans for 100% tariffs on Chinese goods starting November 1. Risk assets—from equities to digital tokens—tumbled simultaneously as Beijing vowed retaliation. Liquidity vanished across major exchanges, triggering a cascade of stop-loss orders and margin calls. More than 1.6 million traders were liquidated in less than 24 hours, with Binance, Bybit, and Hyperliquid posting record liquidation volumes.

Macro Shock Turns Into Opportunity: Trump’s U-Turn Sparks Relief Rally

The tone flipped late Sunday when Trump posted that the U.S. “wants to help China, not hurt it.” Vice President JD Vance echoed the softer rhetoric, saying dialogue “remains on the table.” The policy pivot immediately revived global risk appetite. Crypto reacted first—typical of high-beta assets—with BTC-USD leading the recovery and Ethereum (ETH-USD) jumping +9% to $4 190.

This reversal restored confidence that macro conditions remain constructive. U.S. inflation slipped below 3%, and the Federal Reserve faces mounting pressure to turn dovish amid weakening labor data. With real yields easing and the dollar index holding around 99.02 (+0.30%), digital assets regained their “liquidity trade” status.

Technical Reset: From $126K Peak to $102K Low and Back to $115K

The selling wave last week came shortly after Bitcoin had notched a fresh record at $126 199. Profit-taking intensified as the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) near $108 000 and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement around $104 700 were tested. Both held perfectly. Saturday’s calm trading signaled exhaustion, and Sunday’s 4% rebound confirmed a short-term floor.

Momentum indicators now point to stabilization. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) rebounded to 47—neutral but improving—while MACD histograms are narrowing, hinting that bearish pressure is fading. Key resistance sits at $117 000, then $120 000–$126 000, the July–October high band. A decisive breakout above this range could reopen the path toward $160 000 into year-end if ETF inflows persist.

ETF Inflows Reinforce Institutional Confidence

Despite the crash, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $2.71 billion in weekly inflows, the second-strongest showing of 2025. Friday saw only $4.5 million in outflows—negligible given the scale of the sell-off—indicating that large investors viewed the dip as temporary noise.

Cumulative ETF ownership now represents 12.2% of total circulating Bitcoin, up from 10.8% a quarter ago. Since July, institutional vehicles have added roughly 62 000 BTC per month, echoing accumulation patterns preceding the 2020 and 2021 bull runs. Whale addresses expanded holdings at an annualized rate of 331 000 BTC, further tightening liquid supply.

Corporate Treasuries Double Down: MicroStrategy Adds to Hoard

On Monday, MicroStrategy Inc. (NASDAQ:MSTR)—now rebranded as Strategy—disclosed the purchase of 220 BTC for $27.2 million at an average price of $123 561 each. The firm’s total holdings reached 640 250 BTC, valued near $73 billion, with a cumulative acquisition cost around $47.4 billion.

Chairman Michael Saylor emphasized that the company “will continue to acquire Bitcoin irrespective of market volatility,” framing the asset as a “long-term monetary standard.” The transaction underscores ongoing conviction among corporate holders even after the weekend turmoil.

Leverage Purge Creates a Cleaner Market Structure

Data from CryptoQuant show the Estimated Leverage Ratio plunged from a yearly high of 0.28 on Oct 6 to 0.23, its lowest since August. The deleveraging removed excessive speculative exposure and reset funding rates across derivatives markets.

Open interest in Bitcoin and Ether options halved, while funding rates turned neutral—an environment historically conducive to sustainable rallies. Analysts view the event as a “healthy flush-out” rather than systemic stress. Binance’s Liquidity Stress Index reached its highest reading this year, implying whales used the drop to absorb supply and expand long-term positions.

Network Fundamentals Stay Robust

On-chain metrics confirm that Bitcoin’s foundation remains strong. Hash rate climbed +21.7% QoQ and +61% YoY to 611 EH/s, highlighting continuous miner investment despite price swings. Miner revenue rose 6.3% QoQ to $52.4 million/day, maintaining profitability post-halving.

Transaction throughput hit 103 600 BTC per day (+27.8% QoQ), and active addresses increased 6.1% YoY. Illiquid supply—coins unmoved for more than a year—rose to 14.3 million BTC (+4.6%), signaling steadfast holder conviction. Roughly 94.5% of all supply remains in profit, leaving little forced-selling pressure.

New Entrant: Bitcoin Hyper ($HYPER) Draws Attention

The volatility episode spotlighted projects building atop Bitcoin’s base layer. Bitcoin Hyper ($HYPER), a Layer-2 network using the Solana Virtual Machine, raised $23.3 million in its presale with tokens at $0.013105. By combining Bitcoin’s security with Solana-grade throughput, it promises sub-second transactions, low fees, and NFT support.

While speculative, the project’s timing taps into surging demand for scalability solutions. Should BTC-USD extend its rally toward $200 000, secondary networks like $HYPER could capture significant liquidity spillover.

Macro and Geopolitical Undercurrents Keep Traders Alert

Beyond crypto-specific flows, geopolitical news continues to dictate sentiment. Trump’s tariff rhetoric and subsequent reversal dominated price action, but the U.S. government shutdown—now entering its third week—adds fiscal uncertainty. Meanwhile, tensions in Ukraine and Middle East energy corridors keep safe-haven trades in play.

Historically, Bitcoin’s correlation with gold spikes during geopolitical stress; the yellow metal’s latest surge to $4 119/oz reinforces that cross-asset dynamic. Yet, BTC’s swift rebound shows that investors increasingly view it not merely as risk-on leverage but as an adaptable macro hedge.

Technical Outlook: Key Levels to Watch

• Immediate Support: $112 000 and $108 000 (200-EMA)

• Secondary Support: $103 000, then $98 200 (50% Fibonacci)

• Near-Term Resistance: $117 000 → $120 000 → $126 000

• Breakout Target: $160 000–$200 000 if ETF inflows persist

• RSI: 47 (Neutral, recovering)

• MACD: Bearish crossover narrowing; momentum stabilizing

Holding above $116 000, the Trader’s Realized Price pivot, would re-enter the “bull phase”.

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