Bitcoin Price Forecast – BTC-USD set for $107K Floor or Breakout to $118K?

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) Trades Near $108,800 Amid Deep Correction

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) is stabilizing around $108,803, after a volatile stretch that saw prices slide from the $124,517 all-time high in early August down nearly 14%. At its weakest point this week, BTC hit $107,274, the lowest since early July, before a modest recovery added $2,500, bringing it briefly back near $110,000. Market capitalization now stands just above $2.18 trillion, with Bitcoin dominance at 56.2%, signaling that BTC continues to anchor the broader crypto space even as capital rotates into altcoins.

Institutional Accumulation and Corporate Treasuries Support BTC

One of the most significant factors underpinning the price is the pace of institutional and corporate buying. Data shows that 690,000 BTC were absorbed by institutions in 2025 alone, six times the newly mined supply. In July–August, 28 companies added 140,000 BTC, equivalent to nearly the entire annual issuance. Metaplanet (TSE:3350) has doubled its treasury to 20,000 BTC worth over $2.15 billion, raising funds via a $550 million share issuance to pursue further accumulation. MicroStrategy (MSTR), rebranded as Strategy, holds 597,325 BTC, with a reported BTC yield of 19.7% YTD, and is now eligible for inclusion in the S&P 500 (^GSPC) after posting $10 billion net income in Q2. This growing corporate base acts as a de facto supply sink, creating conditions similar to “private sector QE” in crypto markets.

On-Chain Metrics: Mixed But Leaning Bullish

On-chain indicators provide a nuanced picture. The Delta Cap at $739.4 billion historically defines cycle floors, while Coinbase’s premium gap at +11.6% signals strong U.S. institutional demand. Short-term holder MVRV shows capitulation pressure, but this dynamic often enables long-term accumulators to build positions. A bearish flag, however, comes from the MVRV death cross, with 30-day averages crossing below 365-day levels, a pattern last seen before the 2021–22 collapse. Still, the MVRV Z-score sits near 2, far from the overheated “danger zone” of 7–9, suggesting unrealized profits are limited and the rally may still have room.

Technical Analysis: Support at $107K, Resistance at $113K

Charts confirm Bitcoin is trading inside a descending parallel channel since mid-August. Resistance lies at $111,350–$113,500, with $107,335 as immediate support, followed by $105,150 and $103,350. A breakdown below $103,500 would expose the psychological $100,000 mark and even $90,000 liquidity pools. The weekly RSI hovers just above 50, while the MACD has crossed bearishly, echoing momentum loss. Yet, bullish divergence is visible on the 12H chart, suggesting that if BTC clears $111,350, a move to $115,700 and possibly $118,000 is viable.

Whale Activity and Market Rotation

Large holders remain active. One early whale liquidated 2,000 BTC (~$215 million) to acquire 48,942 ETH, part of a broader $4.07 billion shift into Ethereum. Whale wallets holding 10–10,000 BTC have not yet sold aggressively despite the correction, a supportive sign for BTC stability. Social sentiment, however, shows excessive “buy the dip” optimism — a contrarian warning flagged by Santiment analysts who argue true bottoms form during fear, not optimism. This creates tension: whales are holding steady, but retail remains eager, leaving room for another downward sweep before a sustainable rally.

Macro and ETF Flows Add to Pressure

Macro forces weigh on sentiment. September is historically a weak month for Bitcoin and equities, often dubbed “Red September.” Spot Bitcoin ETFs are seeing outflows, contrasting with Ethereum ETF inflows, suggesting rotation within crypto. The upcoming U.S. jobs report is critical: forecasts expect 73,000 new jobs and a 4.3% unemployment rate. If weak, it would cement expectations for a 25 bp Fed rate cut at the September 16–17 meeting, with futures markets assigning nearly 90% odds. The intersection of Fed policy easing, tariff court rulings, and Trump administration influence adds layers of macro volatility to BTC’s path.

Bullish and Bearish Scenarios

Bullish voices like Anthony Scaramucci continue to project $500,000 BTC within 5–6 years, while warning of potential 40% corrections along the way. Analysts like Crypto Patel argue BTC remains bearish below $113,400, with $100,000 as the next magnet if resistance holds. Others point to volatility compression — 30-day volatility has surged from 3% to 9%, with breakouts historically occurring once the 20–30% threshold is reached. That implies that the next expansion phase could be violent, either upward toward $125,000+ or downward toward the $98,000–$100,000 band.

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