Bitcoin Price Forecast - BTC-USD Slides to $94,480 as Bitcoin ETF Outflows Surge and Fed Rate-Cut Hopes Collapse

Bitcoin Selloff Deepens As BTC-USD Smashes Through $94,000 With ETF Outflows, Long-Term Holder Capitulation, And Macro Stress Colliding At Once

A Violent Repricing Of December Fed Odds Forces BTC-USD From $104,000 To $94,480 In One Of Its Sharpest Downswings Since May

Bitcoin’s latest plunge is the product of a rare and destructive alignment of macro uncertainty, institutional outflows, leveraged liquidations, and long-term holder distribution. The slide began the moment traders realized the Federal Reserve might enter its December meeting without critical inflation and employment data, after a 43-day U.S. government shutdown created a historic blackout. Rate-cut expectations collapsed into a freefall, dropping from nearly 95% one month ago to just 45.4% today. That shift alone was enough to undermine speculative positioning, but once the repricing collided with weakening liquidity, Bitcoin’s structure began to fracture. BTC-USD hit an intraday high around $104,000 before bleeding aggressively into the low $101,000s, then crashing through key technical supports until it landed at $94,480, its lowest price since early May. At $95,678 during mid-session the drop measured more than 7%, and the intraday low at $94,796 confirmed that momentum was not just fading but violently reversing.

U.S. Spot ETF Redemptions Reach Nearly $900 Million In A Single Session, Triggering The Most Aggressive Drain Of Spot Demand Since Listings Began

The heaviest pressure on BTC-USD came from the institutional side, where spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded one of the most severe redemption waves ever. Across U.S. issuers, withdrawals totaled between $869.9 million and $897 million in a single day. This was the second-largest outflow since the products launched and it landed precisely as Bitcoin tested psychological supports. Grayscale’s Mini Bitcoin Trust suffered more than $318 million in redemptions, BlackRock’s IBIT saw about $256 million exit, while Fidelity’s FBTC recorded nearly $120 million in withdrawals. Selling continued across GBTC, Ark and 21Shares, VanEck, Bitwise, Valkyrie and Franklin Templeton offerings, signaling fund-wide derisking instead of isolated investor rotation. The U.S. remains the epicenter of this pressure, proven by the Coinbase Premium Index sitting firmly negative for weeks, showing Bitcoin trades cheaper on U.S. venues than overseas and confirming that American investors are consistently supplying sell pressure each session. With ETF demand evaporating at the same time long-term holders increased distribution, the market’s ability to absorb large blocks of BTC diminished dramatically. This is the true reason BTC-USD lost the $100,000 threshold with so little resistance.

Long-Term Holders Unload A Record 815,000 BTC In 30 Days, Nearly $79 Billion In Supply, As Distribution Intensifies Across All Age Cohorts

Data shows an extraordinary wave of selling by long-term holders. Over the past thirty days, these wallets distributed about 815,000 BTC — nearly $79 billion based on recent prices. This is the largest long-term holder sell wave since early 2024 and it struck during a moment when spot ETF demand was drying up. Distribution came not just from older wallets but from nearly every holding cohort, a sign that profit-taking, tax-driven selling, and macro hedging combined to form one consistent supply stream. Fidelity and CryptoQuant both observed increased derisking among U.S. long-term holders as year-end approaches. Institutions and corporate treasuries also participated in selling, adding pressure to a market already starved of fresh bid liquidity. The result is a drying order book where every large sell order has a disproportionate impact on price discovery.

The Break Of $100,000 Ignites A Cascade Of More Than $550 Million In Liquidations As Leverage Unwinds And Algorithms Flip Into Forced Selling

The technical significance of the $100,000 level cannot be overstated. Once Bitcoin slipped through it, the market transitioned instantly from human-driven trading to automated liquidation mechanics. More than $550 million in futures positions were wiped out, the majority long-biased. Funding rates collapsed into negative territory, open interest fell by about $66.65 billion in notional terms, and total futures volume surged more than 34% to $153 billion. Trading activity across the entire market jumped 50% within a single day. These numbers reveal a liquidation-led crash rather than a fundamentals-led decline. Automated stop-losses triggered, liquidation engines accelerated, and trend-following algorithms reinforced every downward movement. This explains why BTC-USD fell several thousand dollars in minutes once $100,000 broke — a mechanical chain reaction created by a saturated leverage environment.

Technical Structure Breaks Down As BTC-USD Loses Every Major Moving Average, Slides Below Its 200-Day Trendline, And Fades Toward The $96,500–$97,000 Last Line Of Support

Technically, the damage is extensive. Bitcoin now trades beneath all major moving averages, from the 10-day through the 200-day trendline, signaling a breakdown that rarely occurs mid-cycle. The 200-day average, long considered a proxy for the broader trend, was sliced apart without a meaningful bounce. Momentum indicators echo the weakness, with the RSI dropping to 33, MACD deeply negative, and oscillators across multiple timeframes showing accelerating bearish energy. BTC-USD now presses against the lower Bollinger Band, a sign that the move is stretched but not yet exhausted. Support between $96,500 and $97,000 is crucial for any form of stabilization. If this zone fails, the next natural magnet sits around $92,000, with deeper panic potentially pulling price into the $88,000–$90,000 range. Recovery requires reclaiming $102,000 and then proving strength above $106,000 and finally $110,000, levels that now act as layered resistance due to the volume sold beneath them.

Whales And Institutions Drive The Decline While Retail Remains A Passenger In A Market Dominated By Deep Pockets And Thin Liquidity

A significant element in this move is the fact that retail played almost no role in initiating it. Whale wallets holding multiple thousands of BTC executed heavy transfers and strategic sales during hours of thin liquidity, a combination capable of moving the market faster than any retail cohort could. Institutional flows from ETFs, hedge funds, and treasury operations amplified these moves. In the current cycle, Bitcoin is no longer steered by small traders. It responds to institutional risk policy, liquidity cycles, and large wallet behavior. When whales and funds adjust exposure during moments of macro stress, order books often cannot absorb the flow quickly, especially when negative U.S. premium and ETF redemptions suppress natural buying. That is precisely what defined this week’s price collapse.

Macro Stress Bites Hard As High-Beta Assets Sell Off, Tech Stocks Wobble, Crypto Equities Turn Red, And Liquidity Tightens After The 43-Day Shutdown

The macro backdrop adds another layer of pressure. Tech stocks suffered one of their ugliest multi-day stretches in months, with volatility rising across the S&P 500 and NASDAQ. Crypto-linked equities, including Coinbase and MicroStrategy, followed the same downward track. The U.S. shutdown created a temporary fiscal surplus, tightening liquidity and reducing appetite for risk assets. Inflation data missing from October leaves the Fed uncertain and markets anxious. Altcoins collapsed alongside Bitcoin, with Ether dropping more than 8% to $3,139, BNB falling 4.8%, XRP sliding 7.7%, and high-beta tokens like Solana and Cardano losing more than 9%. Even meme tokens such as Dogecoin and TRUMP succumbed to broad risk aversion. The synchronous decline across crypto confirms that Bitcoin’s selloff is macro-sourced, not ecosystem-specific.

BTC-USD Tests Its Production-Cost Floor Near $94,000 As JPMorgan Identifies A Multi-Cycle Range With 6–12 Month Upside Toward $170,000

One structural detail stands out amid the chaos. JPMorgan’s team highlighted Bitcoin’s estimated production cost at approximately $94,000, a level that historically acts as a durable price floor. When Bitcoin trades near its production cost, miners typically halt selling, consolidate operations, and absorb supply rather than distribute. Historically, sub-production cost levels are rare and often precede medium-term reversals. Analysts also noted the rising network difficulty has kept Bitcoin’s price-to-cost ratio near historical lows, suggesting BTC-USD is either near or already sitting at a structural bottom. The bank maintains a 6-to-12-month projection of approximately $170,000, contingent on renewed ETF inflows, stable liquidity, and normalization of macro data.

Market Depth Remains Fragile Even As 72% Of Bitcoin’s Total Supply Is Still In Profit At The $100,000 Zone, Enabling Large-Scale Distribution Without Panic Selling

Another critical insight comes from the profitability of existing supply. Even at the $100,000 level, about 72% of all BTC supply remains in profit. This is important because it explains the intensity of recent selling. When a majority of holders sit on gains, profit-taking becomes rational, especially during high volatility, tax-planning season, and macro uncertainty. This condition allows for heavy selling without the kind of capitulation that defines cycle bottoms. It also reinforces why Bitcoin could fall aggressively even though fundamental sentiment remains broadly constructive.

Final Verdict On BTC-USD: Hold With Short-Term Bearish Pressure And Mid-Term Bullish Recovery Potential Once Liquidity Stabilizes And ETF Flows Normalize

Bitcoin’s immediate direction remains pressured by ETF redemptions, negative U.S. premium, structural technical damage, and macro uncertainty. In the near term, BTC-USD carries a bearish tilt, with the risk of slipping toward $92,000 if support fails. But the medium-term backdrop remains favorable due to the production-cost floor at $94,000, the exhaustion of long-term holder distribution, the likelihood of liquidity improving after the shutdown, and the potential re-accumulation phase among institutions once volatility fades. The appropriate stance based on all data is a hold, with short-term caution and mid-term bullish potential once Bitcoin reclaims the $102,000–$106,000 band that marks the beginning of structural recovery.

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