Bitcoin Price Forecast - BTC-USD Slides to $100,650 as ETF Outflows Intensify and Support at $100K Faces Pressure

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) Falls to $100,650 as Market Structure Breaks and Every Rally Gets Crushed by Vanishing Liquidity

Bitcoin (BTC-USD: $100,650, –1.00%) closed the session pinned to the lower edge of its range, unable to sustain even a brief recovery attempt toward $103,933. Price movement stayed trapped between $100,550 and $103,933, a narrow band that shows how aggressively sellers are defending every approach to the mid-range. Market cap sits at $2.006 trillion, dominance at 57.6%, yet the tape behaves like an asset suffering from structural withdrawal of liquidity rather than one benefiting from crypto’s usual speculative aggression. The absence of follow-through on every bounce confirms a market where momentum has collapsed from both institutional and retail sides, leaving BTC-USD exposed as it hovers just above the critical psychological floor at $100,000.

Bitcoin Suffers Heavy ETF Outflows as $278 Million Exits in One Day and $1.2 Billion Leaves in Early November, Removing the Structural Bid That Once Stabilized BTC-USD

The core reason Bitcoin cannot regain altitude lies in the devastating flow dynamics choking the ETF market. Wednesday alone saw $278 million leave U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, extending the damage of early November where outflows surpassed $1.2 billion. The past week's $247 million in inflows barely dents the multi-session bleed triggered by October’s $500 billion crypto valuation loss. Institutions that once absorbed dips are now absent. ETF operators have slowed issuance. Corporate treasury desks that typically step in with long-horizon buys have taken a step back. As a result, every upward attempt toward $105K or $106K is crushed immediately by supply entering the market far faster than bid depth can absorb. With no ETF demand returning, BTC-USD behaves like an asset temporarily deprived of its foundational liquidity engine.

Government Reopening Fails to Lift BTC-USD as Missing Economic Data Creates Macro Blindness and Fear of a Harsh December FOMC

The end of the 41-day U.S. government shutdown produced almost no relief for Bitcoin. Traders expected at least a modest bump from the return of government operations, but BTC-USD instead slipped from $103K toward $100K. The reason is the massive gap in macro data. October CPI, PCE, and payrolls were never released. Trump’s statement that the shutdown caused $1.5 trillion in economic damage heightened fears that the eventual data-dump could reveal weaker growth, tighter liquidity, and more market stress than anticipated. Bitcoin typically reacts positively to reopening and stimulus, but this time the absence of reliable data created conditions where traders chose to hedge, derisk, or retreat rather than chase upside. BTC-USD is now navigating a macro landscape filled with delays, distortions, and uncertainty, making it harder for momentum players to justify aggressive positioning.

Nasdaq Correlation Turns Dangerous as BTC-USD Drops Hard on Index Declines While Showing Almost No Reaction to Equity Market Gains

Wintermute flagged a crucial behavioral shift in Bitcoin’s correlation with equities. While BTC-USD continues to display a high 0.8 correlation with the Nasdaq, the reaction function behind that correlation transformed into a negative skew. Bitcoin now falls significantly harder when the Nasdaq declines, yet reacts weakly or even indifferently when the Nasdaq rallies. This dynamic is identical to conditions observed during the late-2022 capitulation phase, signaling exhaustion rather than strength. The shift reflects deep liquidity deterioration within crypto as capital funnels toward mega-cap tech while Bitcoin contends with ETF outflows, a slowdown in stablecoin expansion, and thinner order books. BTC-USD is absorbing all of the downside shocks of risk markets without receiving any upside follow-through from equities, creating an asymmetric drag that suppresses every attempt at recovery.

Technical Breakdown Accelerates as BTC-USD Loses the Battle at $106K, Remains Under the 100D and 200D Moving Averages Near $110K, and Fails to Trigger Bullish Momentum

Technically, Bitcoin is stuck in a weakening structure. The 0.5 Fibonacci retracement at $100,300 remains the most actively defended level, but the broader formation is deteriorating as price struggles beneath both the 100-day and 200-day moving averages, which converge near $110,000. The rejection at $106,000 repeated with surgical precision, proving that sellers are controlling this region and forcing BTC-USD back toward its lower boundary every time. On the four-hour chart, the descending wedge continues to confine price action, with each bounce lacking strength, velocity, or volume. RSI at 41 confirms a lack of bullish conviction. Below the market, liquidity clusters gather around $98,000, $96,000, $94,250, and $90,000, creating an air pocket where a sudden drop below $100,000 could accelerate into a deeper sweep. Long-liquidation exposure shows nearly $922 million at risk if BTC-USD trades decisively under the $100K level.

On-Chain Weakness Builds as Short-Term Holders Sell at a Loss and SOPR Below 1 Shows Persistent Panic Supply Hitting Every Rebound

On-chain signals reinforce the breakdown. Short-Term Holder SOPR, measured via the 30-day EMA, remains firmly below 1, confirming that recent buyers are selling at a loss to escape volatility rather than accumulate. Each rally toward $103K, $104K, $105K, or $106K was met with renewed selling from these cohorts, turning every bounce into a distribution event. Historically, SOPR staying below 1 during upward attempts foreshadows additional downside because holders continue to offload rather than wait for trend recovery. BTC-USD remains in this seller-dominated phase until SOPR shows profit-taking rather than loss-cutting behavior.

Corporate Treasuries Add BTC but Their Accumulation Is Insufficient to Offset ETF Outflows and Thinning Market Depth

Corporate buyers stepped in but not at the magnitude required to counter ETF outflows. Strategy added 487 BTC at an average cost of $102,557, extending its total holdings to 641,692 BTC. Galaxy Digital increased its position by 1,298 BTC, Gemini Space Station accumulated 1,300 BTC, and Bitdeer added 204 BTC. These are sizable inflows for any normal period, but they are overshadowed by the $1.2 billion ETF drain pressuring the spot market. The imbalance continues to weigh on BTC-USD, with demand concentrated among treasuries and selling pressure emerging from ETFs, short-term holders, and weakened market-maker liquidity.

Stimulus Excitement Around Trump’s $2,000 “Tariff Dividend” Fades Instantly as BTC-USD Fails to Hold Above $106K and Slides Back Toward $100K

Trump’s proposed $2,000 per-person “tariff dividend” initiative initially energized Bitcoin, helping BTC-USD spike above $106K, but the move evaporated as quickly as it began. The market treated the announcement as narrative rather than tangible liquidity. Without ETF inflows, without market depth, and without strong leverage appetite, BTC-USD could not convert the stimulus optimism into a sustainable rally. The collapse back under $104K and then toward $100K proved that liquidity—not headlines—is controlling Bitcoin’s trajectory.

Derivatives Market Shows Strain as Funding Weakens, Futures Basis Holds at 5–5.5%, and Market Makers Reduce Inventory While Sub-$100K Liquidity Bands Grow

The derivatives landscape highlights ongoing stress. The futures basis remains stable at 5–5.5%, but funding turns negative each time BTC-USD pulls back, revealing cautious sentiment rather than leveraged expansion. Market-maker spreads widened, confirming reduced risk appetite. Liquidity beneath $100K appears increasingly thin, creating conditions where even a modest volatility burst could sweep down to $98K or lower before meaningful spot support re-emerges.

Altcoins Stay Irrelevant as BTC Dominance at 57.6% Keeps BTC-USD in Full Control of Market Direction While ETH and SOL Lag Behind

ETH slipped to $3,450 with a 1.6% decline, while SOL and BNB registered smaller but persistent losses. XRP’s 3.2% advance stood out, but it did not change the reality that altcoins remain entirely reactive to Bitcoin’s behavior. With dominance above 57%, Bitcoin is the market.

BTC-USD Decision Based on Full Dataset and Structural Factors

Short-term momentum, technical posture, on-chain behavior, ETF flows, and liquidity trends all point to SELL.
Medium-term stabilization potential and key support at $100K point toward HOLD.
Long-term scarcity tightening, treasury accumulation, and supply-side economics maintain BUY conditions.

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