Bitcoin Price Forecast Near $112K as Market Braces for Wild Moves

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) Holds $112K Amid Mixed Macro and Whale Activity

The Bitcoin (BTC-USD) price continues to trade in a volatile range, clinging near $112,300 after swinging between $110,730 and an intraday peak of $112,980. Market capitalization stands at $2.23 trillion, while 24-hour trading volumes hover around $47.7 billion, though down 16% from yesterday. The resilience above the $111,000 zone comes despite U.S. labor data showing just 22,000 jobs added in August, a weak print that rattled equities but kept Fed rate-cut bets alive.

Warning Signals: Calls for 90% Crash vs. Bullish Cycle Outlook

Diverging forecasts dominate the landscape. Veteran strategist Mike McGlone warned Bitcoin could face a collapse of more than 90%, potentially revisiting $10,000 levels in this cycle. He cited overheated sentiment after BTC’s surge to $100,000 on December 6, alongside a rising 0.6 correlation with the S&P 500, undermining its “store of value” appeal. McGlone emphasized that Bitcoin’s modest 8% gain since crossing six figures pales against gold’s 30% advance and noted that volatility dynamics—such as the VIX rebounding from 14.2—suggest shifting sentiment.

In contrast, technical traders argue Bitcoin is entering a third parabolic phase, reminiscent of 2017 and 2021. On-chain indicators such as Value Days Destroyed (VDD) show long-term holders have reduced selling, signaling cooling supply pressure. CryptoQuant data suggests this easing is similar to setups that preceded explosive rallies in prior cycles. Models tied to cyclical alignment project potential upside toward $150,000–$200,000 before year-end, assuming macro conditions align.

Technical Levels: Bulls Eye $113,400 Breakout, Bears Target $105K Zone

Charts show BTC pressing against resistance at $113,152–$113,400, where the 200-day EMA and SMA cluster. A clean breakout would open pathways toward $115,600 and $117,500, with momentum supported by RSI at 60 and a bullish engulfing candle at $111,200. Immediate downside levels rest at $109,350 and $107,407, with deeper support around $105,215.

Prediction markets reveal 70% of traders expect a dip toward $105,000 before any breakout attempt to $125,000. This highlights a tactical tug-of-war between bulls defending $111K and bears positioning for a correction toward unfilled CME gaps near $92K–$94K.

Institutional Inflows, Fed Rate Bets, and Political Shifts Drive Sentiment

The latest rally above $112K is underpinned by institutional flows. Strategy, led by Michael Saylor, disclosed the purchase of 4,048 BTC worth $450 million, taking its stash beyond 200,000 coins. Meanwhile, Japanese firm Metaplanet lifted holdings to 20,000 BTC with an additional 1,009-unit acquisition. These large inflows underscore confidence that BTC remains a hedge in a world of rising U.S. debt, now at $37.3 trillion.

Political dynamics add fuel. Former President Donald Trump, campaigning on pro-crypto policies, has pressured the Fed for immediate easing and promoted the launch of American Bitcoin (ABTC), a Nasdaq-listed accumulation platform. Trump’s rhetoric and growing regulatory alignment between the SEC and CFTC—recently greenlighting certain spot commodity trades—have bolstered optimism about institutional adoption.

Whale Activity: Dormant Wallets Stir and $216M Swap Shakes Markets

Whale moves have added intrigue. A dormant wallet from 2012 containing 479 BTC (worth $52 million) reactivated this week, transferring 80 BTC ($8.9 million) to new addresses. In parallel, another whale deposited 2,000 BTC ($216 million) onto an exchange, swapping into Ethereum. July also saw an unprecedented 80,000 BTC transfer handled by Galaxy Digital.

While sudden whale activity can trigger fears of large-scale selling, gradual repositioning often dampens volatility. For now, the effect has been muted, with BTC consolidating above $112K, but traders remain alert to further shifts.

Gold Outshines BTC as Macro Hedge

Even with Bitcoin defending six-figure prices, gold has stolen the spotlight. Futures hit a record $3,645/oz, rising more than 35% YTD compared to Bitcoin’s 12% retreat from its $124,128 high. The divergence underscores concerns that BTC is behaving more like a risk-on asset tied to equities rather than an independent hedge. Gold’s surge, fueled by rate-cut expectations and Fed independence fears, continues to attract haven demand.

Altcoin Ripples: Bitcoin Hyper, Remittix, Pepenode

The BTC rally has spilled into speculative altcoins. Bitcoin Hyper (HYPER), a Solana Virtual Machine-based Bitcoin Layer-2, has raised more than $14 million in presales with token prices at $0.012865. Its pitch—combining Bitcoin security with Solana scalability—has drawn interest, alongside 50% staking rewards.

Meanwhile, Remittix (RTX), priced at $0.1030, is preparing for its wallet launch on September 15, with analysts projecting potential 15x to 80x growth tied to CEX listings. Pepenode, blending meme culture with gamified mining, has raised $500,000, offering up to 2,600% staking rewards during presales. These projects reflect the spillover appetite when BTC consolidates, though their high-risk profiles remain clear.

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