Bitcoin Price Forecast - BTC-USD Nears $101K as Whale Transfers, Miner Debt, and QE Speculation Shake Crypto Markets

BTC-USD Tests $100,000 Support After 20% Drop From Record High

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) continues to battle heavy downside pressure, trading around $101,468 after falling nearly 20% from its October record high of $126,296. The world’s largest cryptocurrency has entered a corrective phase marked by repeated tests of the $100,000 psychological level — a zone that has weakened after multiple intraday retests near $99,000 this week. The pullback follows its first red October in six years, with the asset down 15.7% over the past three months despite a 32% six-month gain, highlighting a sharp divergence between long-term optimism and short-term exhaustion. Current trading ranges show intraday volatility between $98,892 and $107,269, as momentum indicators flash warning signals that the market’s liquidity is thinning.

Technical Picture Turns Fragile: RSI and MACD Signal Weak Momentum

Technical gauges confirm Bitcoin’s fragile posture. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits near 40.7, indicating moderate oversold conditions but lacking confirmation of a rebound. The MACD at –2,912.9 with a histogram of –773.0 points to persistent bearish momentum, while the Average Directional Index (ADX) reading of 27.8 confirms the strength of the ongoing trend — but in a downward direction. Prices now trade well below the Bollinger mid-band at $108,665, suggesting that Bitcoin remains under its medium-term trend line. Analysts watching the 50-week simple moving average note that BTC has already slipped below $103,700, a support that aligns with the bull-market floor last seen in early 2024.

On-Chain Shifts: Old Whales and MicroStrategy Movements Weigh on Market

On-chain data reveal a renewed wave of large-holder activity. More than 26,000 BTC (approximately $2.5 billion) from wallets dormant for three to five years were moved on November 7, according to CryptoQuant. Many of these transfers are suspected to be linked to MicroStrategy (MSTR), led by Michael Saylor, which has historically used Bitcoin as collateral for expansion financing. This reawakening of long-term holdings has fueled concerns about strategic profit-taking by “OG whales.” The Fear & Greed Index has collapsed to 21/100, marking “extreme fear” territory, and positioning Bitcoin sentiment near panic levels unseen since mid-2022. Despite heavy selling, long-term accumulation addresses still hold roughly 13.8 million BTC, suggesting that institutional entities are not exiting entirely but rotating liquidity.

Mining Economy Under Stress: Hash Price Near $40–42 per TH/s

Mining profitability has deteriorated sharply as network difficulty hits record levels while prices stagnate near $100,000. Hash prices have dropped to the $40–$42 per TH/s per day range, pushing even top-tier miners like Bitmain’s Antminer S21 and MicroBT M66S close to breakeven at U.S. electricity rates of $0.05–$0.07 per kWh. Several major miners, including CleanSpark (CLSK) and Marathon Digital Holdings (MARA), have begun liquidating reserves to maintain operations. CleanSpark sold 97% of its October production, while Marathon reported a net loss of 101 BTC on trading operations despite earning $9.6 million in interest from its loan portfolio of 10,377 BTC. Aggregate debt across the mining industry has ballooned from $2.1 billion a year ago to $12.7 billion, according to VanEck data, forcing some firms into survival mode.

Infrastructure Expansion: Phoenix Group Adds 30 MW in Ethiopia

Even amid tightening margins, investment in mining infrastructure persists. Abu Dhabi-based Phoenix Group has commissioned a 30 MW facility in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, partnering with state utility Ethiopian Electric Power. The new site adds 1.9 EH/s to its total hash rate and raises the country’s aggregate mining capacity to 132 MW, roughly one-third of the company’s global output. Phoenix aims to scale to 1 GW, reflecting the geographic diversification trend among miners seeking cheap hydropower amid rising tariffs elsewhere. Local electricity rates are set to climb from $0.015 to $0.075 per kWh within four years, pressuring profitability across the region.

Macro Factors and Liquidity Crunch Shape the Next Move

Market liquidity has contracted across exchanges, mirroring Wintermute’s assessment that recent trading reflects rotation of existing capital rather than new inflows. The lack of fresh liquidity, combined with government shutdown uncertainty and delayed U.S. economic data, has reduced speculative appetite. However, macro traders expect a potential pivot as the Federal Reserve prepares to launch quantitative easing (QE) on December 1, which could inject new liquidity into risk assets. JPMorgan strategist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou argues that Bitcoin remains undervalued relative to gold, estimating that parity in the digital-to-metal ratio could push BTC toward $170,000 in the medium term.

Dominance Dynamics: Altcoin Ratios Hint at Room for Growth

Despite the drawdown, Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) remains around 61%, far above the 49% threshold that historically signals cycle peaks. Analysts like “Collin Talks Crypto” interpret this as evidence that the bull cycle is not finished, with an altseason yet to emerge. Historical patterns from 2017 and 2021 suggest that BTC’s final leg upward often coincides with a sharp fall in dominance and rotation into altcoins. Current volume data — $110.9 billion daily versus a $78 billion average — indicate that speculative participation remains active, though concentrated in major pairs.

Medium-Term Targets and Forecast Ranges

Quantitative models from AI-based forecasts, such as those tracked by Meyka, outline potential near-term and long-term ranges. The one-month target sits near $142,555, implying a 40% upside from current levels, while the five-year projection of $161,345 assumes sustained institutional accumulation and macro liquidity expansion. However, short-term technicals contradict these models. The presence of an unfilled CME gap near $92,000 aligns with the bull-market support band, implying that Bitcoin could retest that level before establishing its next upward phase.

Market Sentiment: Between Capitulation and Opportunity

While fear dominates retail psychology, several institutional traders are positioning for a rebound into year-end, anticipating the Fed’s policy shift and government reopening in late November. Bitcoin’s dominance above 60% and absence of euphoric retail inflows suggest that the current correction is more of a cooling phase than a terminal top. Still, the persistent pressure from miner sales, whale distribution, and leveraged liquidations must clear before renewed momentum emerges.

Verdict: BTC-USD Short-Term Bearish, Long-Term Bullish (Hold)

After integrating on-chain flows, mining economics, and macro liquidity data, BTC-USD faces continued near-term downside risk toward $92,000–$95,000, but the broader cycle structure remains intact. Traders with short horizons should expect volatility as the market tests psychological supports, while long-term investors may view sub-$100,000 zones as accumulation opportunities ahead of potential Fed-driven liquidity expansion. Based on all data and technical confirmation, the outlook is short-term bearish, medium-term neutral, and long-term bullish — rating: Hold.

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