Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC-USD Rebounds Toward $67K as $60K Support, $82K Resistance and ETF Inflows Clash

Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC-USD tests $66K ceiling with macro, miners and derivatives pulling in different directions

Post-Trump rebound: BTC-USD tracks equity recovery but underperforms gold

Bitcoin is clawing back ground after a 50% drawdown from around $90,000 to roughly $60,000 at the early-February low, now trading in the $66,000–$67,500 band. The move higher is happening in lockstep with Wall Street’s rebound: the tech-heavy Nasdaq just logged a 1.05% daily gain, the S&P 500 climbed about 0.68%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 421 points, or roughly 0.86%, in Tuesday’s session before extending modestly higher on Wednesday. BTC-USD is acting like a high-beta risk asset on a daily basis, but the bigger picture is that it has badly lagged other macro hedges during the last six months. Over that stretch, gold has surged about 51%, the S&P 500 is up roughly 7%, while Bitcoin has dropped around 43%. Correlation to both stocks and gold has broken down: the daily coefficient versus the S&P 500 sits near 0.32, and versus gold around –0.45, the weakest link since the FTX collapse in late 2022. That kind of dislocation historically has not persisted; assets that usually move together tend to reconnect, and given the divergence, the catch-up potential skews in BTC’s favor if the macro expansion and liquidity cycle remain intact.

Trump’s State of the Union, tariffs and Iran tensions shape the macro risk premium

The macro backdrop around BTC-USD is dominated by two overlapping forces: U.S. trade policy and Middle East risk. President Donald Trump’s nearly two-hour State of the Union speech defended his tariff regime even after the Supreme Court struck down roughly 75% of last year’s import taxes under the IEEPA framework. Instead of allowing the average tariff to fall toward 9.1% and cutting the typical household’s annual tariff cost toward roughly $618, the administration has imposed a temporary 10% global levy and is preparing to step that to 15% for 150 days while shifting legal basis to Sections 301 and 232. At the same time, the U.S. is stepping up military pressure on Iran ahead of a third round of nuclear talks in Geneva. Two carriers and the largest U.S. air deployment to the Gulf since 2003 are in place, and the U.S. embassy in Lebanon has evacuated dozens of staff as a precaution. Any misstep that threatens the Strait of Hormuz would transmit quickly into oil, inflation expectations and risk sentiment. That mix—tariff-driven import inflation plus potential energy shocks—supports gold and other hard assets. Gold is already above $5,000, recently trading around $5,200 per ounce, and has regained more than half of its early-month rout. For BTC-USD, the same macro stew should be supportive as a long-term inflation hedge, but in the near term, a spike in risk aversion tends to hit crypto before it benefits from the “digital gold” narrative, which is why geopolitical headlines still translate into volatility rather than a clean bid.

Trump speech and sentiment: optimism spike, but crowd euphoria can cap short-term rallies

BTC-USD pushed back above $65,000 during the early European session after Trump’s speech, with social sentiment turning sharply more optimistic. Crowd commentary across X, Reddit, Telegram and other channels flipped to the most bullish bull/bear ratio in about four weeks. On-chain sentiment data shows that when retail FOMO spikes and the narrative shifts to “the bear cycle is ending,” crypto has a habit of doing the opposite in the short term. Crowd euphoria often marks local tops because late buyers chase strength into resistance and then get flushed out on the next downdraft. Right now that pattern is at risk of repeating: the optimism surge is colliding with a very well-defined technical ceiling around $66,000–$68,500.

Spot ETF flows and Coinbase premium: U.S. demand quietly rotates back in

Under the surface, however, institutional and U.S. demand are stabilizing. U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs pulled in more than $257–258 million of net inflows on Tuesday, the strongest single-day intake since February 6, after weeks of choppy or negative flows. That coincided with the Coinbase Premium Index flipping positive for the first time since mid-January. A positive premium means BTC-USD on Coinbase is trading above Binance, a sign that U.S. dollar buyers are paying up relative to offshore flows. Historically, when ETF inflows and a positive Coinbase premium show up together after a sharp sell-off, it signals that larger, more regulated capital is stepping in to accumulate on weakness rather than exit. At the same time, there are signs of rotation inside crypto: XRP has rallied to roughly $1.44 with an intraday gain near 6%, while XRP-linked ETFs have amassed about $1.1 billion in net assets since mid-November despite Bitcoin ETFs being down for the year. That tells you the ETF wrapper isn’t the problem; it’s positioning around BTC after a parabolic run to $90,000 and the subsequent 50% drawdown.

Funding, open interest and perp positioning: negative carry but controlled leverage

Perpetual futures data shows a market that has been de-risked but not washed out. After Monday’s sharp slide, BTC funding rates across major exchanges fell well below neutral and turned deeply negative intraday. A K33 Research snapshot shows the one-week average funding rate bouncing back to about +1.95% on Tuesday, while the 30-day average sits near +0.78%, the lowest since September 2024. In other words, the longer-term bias has cooled dramatically even after a brief positive reset. More importantly, open interest is parked near 270,000 BTC, indicating that traders are not rushing to add fresh leverage. The combination of modestly negative to flat funding and stable open interest points to a defensive perp regime: shorts are active, longs are cautious, and there is limited fuel for an immediate squeeze unless price starts grinding higher through resistance. The key nuance is that funding is negative but not yet at classic capitulation extremes. There is enough short exposure to power a snapback, but not such overwhelming pessimism that a violent short squeeze is locked in.

Options, gamma and “max pain”: $60K–$70K as negative-gamma trap, $75K as options gravity

The options market is setting clear tripwires. According to Coinbase Institutional analysis, the primary BTC-USD support band sits around $60,000, with the first heavy resistance cluster near $82,000. Gamma exposure maps show positive gamma in the $85,000–$90,000 region—meaning market makers would lean against the move by selling on strength and buying on dips there—and negative gamma concentrated in the $60,000–$70,000 zone, where hedging action amplifies the prevailing trend. As long as BTC trades between $60,000 and $70,000, dealers’ hedging flows can exacerbate drops: if price slips, they are forced to sell more to stay hedged, accelerating declines toward the $60,000 floor. A break below $60,000 would push BTC-USD deeper into negative-gamma territory and risk a cascade of forced selling, especially with spot and perps already nervous. On February 27, roughly 115,000 BTC options expire on Deribit with a notional value of about $7.49 billion. The max-pain point—where most options expire worthless—is around $75,000, with a put-to-call ratio of 0.76. That suggests dealers are structurally short upside but not overwhelmingly hedged for a collapse. Ethereum options add another $886 million of notional with max pain at $2,200 and a put-to-call ratio of 0.78. The interplay between negative gamma below spot and max pain above spot implies a wide, volatile range: dips toward $60,000 can accelerate quickly, while sustained recovery into the $70,000s would start to pull price toward the $75,000 gravity point as expiry approaches.

Miner capitulation, hash ribbons and production cost: one of the longest stress periods nearing exhaustion

On-chain miner metrics are signaling that the deepest part of the drawdown may be behind BTC-USD. The Hash Ribbon indicator—which compares 30-day and 60-day moving averages of hash rate—is close to flashing a recovery signal after roughly three months of miner stress, one of the longest capitulation episodes on record. Since late November, when the 30-day average fell below the 60-day, BTC has dropped from about $90,000 to a low near $60,000, a textbook 30–35% correction from peak and a 50% drawdown from the cycle high before the stress began. During capitulation, inefficient miners shut rigs, sell reserves to cover electricity, debt and overhead, driving hash rate down and adding sustained supply into the market. A recovery signal comes when the 30-day hash average turns back above the 60-day, meaning machines are coming back online and selling pressure from balance sheets is easing. Historically, such crossovers have coincided with powerful accumulation zones: January 2015, December 2018 and December 2022 all showed similar patterns that marked major or local bottoms. At the same time, BTC-USD is currently trading below its estimated average production cost around $66,000 for the first time since November 2022. When spot price sits under the cost curve, miners that survive the shake-out are effectively accumulating below replacement value. That combination—one of the longest capitulations on record, hash recovering, and price beneath production—is a classic deep-value setup in an otherwise structurally growing network.

Derivatives leverage purge: from 16 months of excess to healthier long-term structure

Since mid-2025, the futures complex had run with elevated leverage for about 16 months. The surge to all-time highs brought in heavy speculative long positions; the subsequent sell-off forced a wave of liquidations. CryptoQuant’s read is that sellers have dominated since July 2025, with buy limit orders mainly absorbing forced supply rather than driving breakout rallies. As BTC-USD rolled over from local highs around $80,000, leverage began to bleed out, and the latest flush toward the $60,000–$62,000 area triggered a visible trader capitulation. Funding flipped negative, and long liquidations reduced the debt overhang that had been building for more than a year. That structural clean-up is constructive: it reduces the risk that every uptick triggers heavy profit-taking and makes it easier for real demand—spot ETFs, corporate treasuries, high-conviction accounts—to push price higher without running into a wall of levered sellers.

Spot board and majors: BTC retraces, altcoins finally breathe

The broader crypto board confirms that the sell-off was deep but not terminal. BTC-USD is trading roughly around $67,300–$67,400, up about 5–5.5% on the day. Ethereum is near $2,020, up about 9–9.5%. XRP sits around $1.44, up more than 6%. BNB is about $620, gaining nearly 6%. Solana (SOL) trades near $86, adding over 11%. Dogecoin (DOGE) is around $0.102 with a daily jump above 10%. Cardano (ADA) hovers near $0.292, up close to 12%. Litecoin (LTC) is roughly $57.8, up about 12%. Smaller names like AVAX near $9.52 and ZEC around $248 are posting double-digit percentage gains. The message is straightforward: after a brutal first leg of the 2026 slump, broad crypto is staging a reflex rally from oversold, led by BTC but with high-beta altcoins outperforming on percentage terms. That behavior is typical of early-stage recoveries within a still-uncertain regime, not of a mature blow-off top.

Short-term technicals: $68.5K ceiling, $60K–$63K floor, and a pattern target at $58,822

On the four-hour chart, BTC-USD is retesting a broken lower consolidation boundary near $66,000–$66,500, trading around $65,500–$67,000 depending on venue. Price remains capped beneath the clustered 50- and 100-period EMAs, both sloping lower and acting as dynamic resistance. The recent bounce from the $64,000 region has lacked strong follow-through: the RSI on the four-hour frame hovers just below 50, consistent with consolidation rather than a clear trend reversal, while MACD has crossed bullishly but with only a modest positive histogram, signaling a rebound inside a still-fragile structure. Immediate resistance sits at $66,500, where the lower range boundary and 50-EMA intersect. Above that, $68,500 marks a stronger barrier, aligning with prior consolidation and the channel midline on the daily chart. On the downside, initial support lies around $63,000, a psychological and structural level that has attracted buyers repeatedly. Below that, $60,000 is the key medium-term floor. The pattern-based technical target of the prior breakdown is about $58,822, which would likely be tested if $60,000 fails decisively. The message from the chart is blunt: until BTC-USD recaptures $68,500 with conviction and holds above it, bounces are vulnerable to failure; any sustained break of $63,000 reopens the path to $60,000 and potentially high-50Ks.

Triangle break and channel behavior: corrective bounces until the midline is reclaimed

The shorter-term structure reinforces that caution. On the four-hour view, BTC-USD recently broke down from a symmetrical triangle, confirming that sellers still control the sequence of lower highs. The breakdown accelerated the move toward $62,000, where demand temporarily stabilized the slide. From there, price has staged a mild rebound, but the underside of the broken triangle trendline now looms as resistance. A move back into that zone would likely function as a technical retest—former support acting as new resistance. Unless BTC-USD can regain that trendline and convert it into a base, any pop into that region should be treated as corrective, not impulsive. On the daily channel, the mid-trendline near $68,000–$68,500 has repeatedly rejected advances; until that dynamic barrier is taken out, the default expectation is sideways-to-lower between $60,000 and the midline, with volatility amplified by negative gamma.

Sentiment and short-squeeze risk: negative funding but no full-blown panic

Perpetual funding rates, as noted, have rotated into negative territory as the latest slide pulled BTC-USD toward $60,000. That reflects a meaningful uptick in short exposure and a more cautious stance among long-biased traders. The spike in negative funding during the drop shows aggressive shorts piling in around the $60,000–$62,000 area. Historically, when funding stays negative while price stabilizes above a strong support zone, the setup for a short squeeze improves: if BTC-USD grinds higher, shorts pay carry and face mounting mark-to-market losses, which can force buybacks and accelerate the move. Right now, though, funding looks moderately negative rather than extreme; the market is guarded, not capitulating. That puts BTC-USD in a fragile equilibrium. Stability above $60,000 combined with a break of $66,500–$68,500 could ignite a sharp short-covering rally. A renewed push down through $60,000, in contrast, would deepen negative funding, force fresh deleveraging and confirm the bearish continuation scenario that options and gamma maps are already flagging.

Relative performance vs. gold and stocks: dislocation argues for upside once the dust settles

The medium-term relative picture is where the bullish case for BTC-USD becomes more compelling. From late August to now, gold up roughly 51%, the S&P 500 up about 7%, and Bitcoin down around 43% is not a normal equilibrium if the cycle remains expansionary and liquidity stays abundant. On-chain and macro-focused analysts argue that the divergence has less to do with a failure of Bitcoin’s long-term narrative and more to do with forced position unwinds, leverage-driven flows and the mechanics of ETFs and options around all-time highs. Institutional adoption has not stalled: 2025 saw a surge in participation from banks, corporates, merchants and even nation-states, and spot ETF inflows this week confirm that regulated capital still wants exposure. The correlation break, in that context, looks more like a temporary dislocation created by excess leverage and miner stress than a structural rejection of BTC as a macro hedge. Once the leverage purge and miner capitulation complete—and the hash ribbon plus production-cost signal suggest that moment is close—the path of least resistance is for Bitcoin to move back toward its usual relationship with risk assets and hard money, which implies significant upside from current levels.

BTC-USD stance: BUY with preference for scaled entries between $60K and $66K

Pulling all of this together, BTC-USD sits at an inflection band rather than at a clear trend extreme. On the bearish side, price is still capped below the $66,500–$68,500 resistance cluster and below the daily channel midline; the recent bounce lacks strong momentum; negative gamma in the $60,000–$70,000 zone means any break under $60,000 could trigger a sharp cascade toward the high-$50Ks; and geopolitical plus tariff risk can easily knock sentiment back into risk-off mode. On the bullish side, spot ETFs just logged their largest single-day inflow since early February; the Coinbase premium has turned positive, signaling U.S. demand; miners are emerging from one of the longest capitulation phases in Bitcoin’s history with price now under an estimated $66,000 production cost; leverage built up over 16 months has been materially reduced; options max pain around $75,000 provides a medium-term magnet once negative gamma subsides; and the six-month divergence versus gold and the S&P 500 argues for eventual catch-up. With BTC-USD trading around $67,000, the risk/reward profile favors accumulation on weakness rather than chasing strength into resistance. The stance is BUY, with the highest-quality entries concentrated between roughly $60,000 and $66,000, accepting that any dip into the $58,822–$60,000 area is likely to be violent but, unless macro conditions collapse, more consistent with late-stage liquidation than with the start of a new secular downtrend.

That's TradingNEWS