Bitcoin Price Reclaims $116,000 Amid Policy Catalyst
Bitcoin (BTC-USD) surged past the $116,000 mark, reaching an intraday peak of $116,850 after reports that President Trump will sign an executive order permitting digital assets in 401(k) retirement plans. This move follows last week’s all-time high near $123,400 and a brief pullback to $112,000, fueling a swing in the Crypto Fear & Greed Index from “Neutral” to “Greed” at 62/100 before settling around 54/100—an indicator of tempered optimism among traders.
On-Chain Signals Point To Accumulation
Exchange outflows on August 5 totaled 21,490 BTC, while miners’ OTC holdings dropped to 147,500 BTC, levels unseen in years. Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s NVT ratio declined by over 32% to 29.2, suggesting transactional activity is catching up to network valuation. Glassnode data confirms that profit-taking by short-term holders has eased, implying reduced supply pressure and stronger holder conviction at current levels.
Key Technical Levels And Breakout Scenarios
Traders identify $109,000 as vital support—a breach could send Bitcoin toward $100,000. Conversely, a decisive move above $120,000 would clear the path to retest July highs around $123,400 and potentially target $125,000. Analyst Michael van de Poppe highlights that this consolidation near resistance often precedes a bullish breakout, while strategist Ted foresees a push toward $125,000, triggering approximately $18 billion in liquidations.
Institutional Catalyst In 401(K) Expansion
The anticipated executive order—expected to unlock $12.5 trillion in retirement assets—compels the Labor Department to clarify ERISA-related guidance for alternative investments. This regulatory shift has already been priced in by markets, as evidenced by the 1.7% jump to $116,323.80 on major exchanges. By legitimizing Bitcoin exposure in retirement vehicles, institutional inflows may accelerate materially in coming months.
Altcoin Market Response
While Bitcoin led the advance, major altcoins also posted gains: Ether (ETH-USD) traded around $3,664 (+2.37%), XRP (XRP-USD) near $2.97 (+2.14%), and Solana (SOL-USD) at approximately $167.38 (+3.26%). Despite broad-based strength, these assets remain secondary to Bitcoin’s narrative, which now centers on retirement-fund demand.
Emerging Layer-2 Play Bitcoin Hyper
Bitcoin Hyper’s presale has raised $7.42 million toward its $7.50 million cap, pricing wrapped-BTC tokens at $0.01255. By enabling near-zero-fee DeFi and dApp usage secured by the Bitcoin network, Hyper aims to foster additional on-chain demand—an ecosystem effect that could amplify BTC-USD price discovery over time.
Short-Term Models And Long-Term Outlook
Thirty-day forecast models project modest rises from $114,398 on August 7 to $114,858 by September 6. Yet leading forecasters like Fundstrat’s Tom Lee maintain year-end targets of $200,000–$250,000, while conservative estimates place the 2025 ceiling near $160,000. Long-range scenarios still envisage a $146,000 Bitcoin by 2030, positioning 2025 as a potential consolidation pivot amid evolving macro and regulatory variables.
Tactical Recommendation: Buy On Dips
Given the convergence of on-chain accumulation, critical support near $109,000, and the imminent institutional catalyst of 401(k) inclusion, the optimal strategy is to accumulate Bitcoin on retracements toward $113,000–$114,000. Scale out into the $120,000–$125,000 zone, implementing a protective stop under $108,500 to mitigate downside risk. By disciplined entry and exit thresholds, investors can navigate the current volatility while capitalizing on structural tailwinds.
