Bitcoin Price Trapped Below $108K as ETF Demand Clashes with Profit-Taking

BTC-USD Struggles at $107K Despite Institutional Flood

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) is trading tightly around $106,770, posting just a 0.1% dip on Friday. Despite multiple bullish catalysts, including over $1.6 billion in net ETF inflows since March and treasury accumulations surpassing 823,000 BTC, Bitcoin has failed to escape its $103,000–$108,000 range. The current structure reflects a market battling opposing forces: relentless long-term buying versus tactical, high-volume profit-taking from aged wallets.

Bitcoin ETFs Absorb 100,000 BTC in Q2, but Price Action Lags

The ETF space has seen 100,000 BTC in net inflows over the past three months—excluding GBTC outflows—taking cumulative ETF holdings to over 630,000 BTC. These purchases reflect growing allocations from institutional asset managers, family offices, and wealth platforms such as BlackRock. But price has moved marginally since March, showing that buying pressure from ETFs alone isn't enough in the current environment.

Corporate Treasuries Continue to Accumulate, Strategy Crosses 590K BTC

Corporate buying remains aggressive. Strategy-led firms like MicroStrategy (MSTR) have added over 64,000 BTC in 2025 alone, pushing treasury holdings to 823,000 BTC, valued near $86 billion at current prices. This represents a consolidation of corporate conviction around Bitcoin’s role as a balance sheet reserve. However, this wave has been met by persistent long-term holder distribution—tempering the effect of these massive purchases.

240,000 BTC Unloaded by Long-Term Holders Mutes Rally

HODL wave data reveals more than 240,000 BTC sold over the past 90 days from 1-to-5-year holding bands. This segment of aged supply—now monetizing gains—has absorbed a large chunk of demand. At the same time, miners continue to contribute ~450 BTC per day to circulating supply. The equilibrium between institutional buying and long-term selling explains the subdued volatility and repeated rejections near $108,000.

Derivatives Market Hits $25B as Traders Favor Leverage over Spot

Bitcoin open interest has skyrocketed to over $25 billion, up from under $5 billion just three years ago. Derivatives—particularly perpetual futures—now dominate BTC volume. The rise of “paper Bitcoin” means many traders are leveraging exposure without impacting spot supply, dulling the price effect of speculative participation.

Fed Policy Uncertainty, Trump Pressure Cap Risk-On Flows

Macroeconomic pressures are intensifying. While a Fed rate cut was once expected in July, growing concerns around the core PCE inflation print—expected above 2.6% YoY—have delayed that narrative. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has resisted political pressure, even as President Trump called for immediate cuts and floated the idea of replacing Powell before his term ends in May 2026. Bitcoin, highly sensitive to real rates, remains capped until monetary direction is clear.

BTC Correlates with U.S. Futures Surge, But Breakout Stalls

Futures on the S&P 500 soared past 6,145, and Nasdaq Composite futures broke 20,180, as traders priced in dovish policy shifts. That correlation lifted Bitcoin early in the week, pushing BTC to a weekly high near $108,400, but repeated rejections pushed it back toward $107,000. Traders now await the PCE inflation data, which could either spark the next move higher or trigger a retreat below $105,000.

Key Technical Levels: $104K as Support, $112K as Breakout Barrier

From a technical lens, $104,000 remains the immediate support, bolstered by the 50-day EMA and previous demand zones. A decisive break below opens the door to $100,000, a psychologically critical level and round-number floor. On the upside, $112,000 stands as the key breakout resistance. Failure to break it would keep BTC confined to its current compression band, but any breach could rapidly drive a push toward $120,000.

Bitcoin Hyper Ignites L2 Hype with $1.6M Presale Run

Meanwhile, fresh optimism comes from Bitcoin’s Layer-2 narrative. Bitcoin Hyper, a new L2 network designed for scalable transaction throughput, has raised over $1.6 million in its presale. The protocol uses Solana Virtual Machine (SVM) compatibility and zero-knowledge proofs, aiming to enable smart contracts, meme coins, and dApps directly on Bitcoin. Its token, $HYPER, is currently priced at $0.01205, with tiered pricing set to increase. The project has been audited by Coinsult and Spywolf and includes a roadmap featuring native wallet integration, bridges, and staking mechanisms.

India Eyes Bitcoin for National Reserves as Adoption Shifts Global

Policy circles are also evolving. Indian legislators are now proposing Bitcoin as a reserve asset, citing its growing global credibility. If enacted, it would follow El Salvador’s pioneering steps and elevate BTC from institutional-grade asset to a geopolitical reserve currency. This movement is no longer isolated, as Fannie Mae (OTC:FNMA) and Freddie Mac (OTC:FMCC) are reportedly considering crypto as an asset class for mortgage qualifications—an adoption breakthrough not seen in past cycles.

Retail Flows Remain Dormant but Could Be the Missing Fuel

While institutional flows remain consistent, retail participation is muted. On-chain activity shows subdued wallet creation and low network transaction velocity. However, historical patterns suggest that once retail re-engages—often triggered by a clean breakout above prior all-time highs—momentum can double BTC’s price within weeks. Currently, long-term holder selling has slowed to under 1,000 BTC per day, down from 3,000+ BTC/day in May, setting the stage for an inflection point.

Altcoin Market Follows BTC Cues but Lacks Independent Momentum

Altcoins remain tethered to BTC’s consolidation. Ethereum (ETH-USD) leads with a 6.7% weekly gain, trading at $2,432.20, while XRP fell 3.4% to $2.08, still up ~3% on the week. Solana and Cardano each slipped 1%, and meme tokens like Dogecoin dipped 0.4%. The meme-driven token $TRUMP bucked the trend with a 1% gain. The broader altcoin market awaits a Bitcoin breakout to ignite a true “altseason.”

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