Bitcoin Price Surges to $114,482 - BTC-USD ETF Inflows and Fed Policy Shift

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) Climbs Above $114,000 on Record ETF Inflows

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) surged back above $114,482, advancing 0.59% in 24 hours with trading volumes of $45.2 billion and a market capitalization of $2.28 trillion. The rally followed a sharp rebound from lows near $110,000, with momentum firmly supported by $757 million in net ETF inflows on September 10, the strongest daily intake in eight weeks. Total ETF allocations for September now stand at $1.39 billion, underscoring renewed institutional appetite after summer stagnation.

Macro Data Shifts as Inflation and Jobless Claims Send Mixed Signals

The backdrop for risk assets turned favorable after the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) unexpectedly fell 0.1% MoM in August, defying consensus of a 0.3% increase and cooling wholesale inflation to 2.6% YoY. This softer reading triggered Bitcoin’s breakout through $113,000, aligning with broader equity gains. Meanwhile, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) advanced 0.4% MoM, lifting annual inflation to 2.9%, while core CPI climbed 0.3% MoM and 3.1% YoY. At the same time, initial jobless claims spiked to 263,000, the highest since October 2021, highlighting labor market stress. Traders now assign a 92% probability to a 25bp Fed cut next week, with a smaller 8% chance of a 50bp cut, according to CME FedWatch.

Technical Formations Point to a Bitcoin Supercycle Breakout

From a structural standpoint, Bitcoin’s weekly chart shows two inverse head-and-shoulders (IH&S) patterns reinforcing the bullish case. The smaller formation, confirmed after July’s breakout above $112,000, projects a target near $170,000, or +49% from current levels. A broader IH&S formation dating back to 2021 remains active, with a projected target at $360,000, implying a potential +217% upside. Immediate resistance sits at $115,000, aligned with the 50-day moving average, while a decisive break opens the path toward $120,000. Support is firm at $112,000, with secondary protection near $110,000.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs Record Multi-Week High Inflows

Institutional demand remains the clearest catalyst. All twelve U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded inflows on Wednesday, led by Fidelity’s FBTC (+$156.5 million) and Ark’s ARKB (+$84 million). Open interest in Bitcoin futures rose 6.6% to $43.3 billion, while liquidations totaled just $37.9 million, mostly from short sellers. ETF flows confirm that institutions are positioning ahead of the Fed meeting, with risk appetite supported by falling bond yields.

Ethereum Outflows Highlight Capital Rotation Back to BTC

While Bitcoin ETFs flourished, Ethereum (ETH-USD) traded higher at $4,417.34 (+0.75%) yet saw $668 million in September outflows from ETH-focused ETFs. The rotation underscores a market preference for Bitcoin exposure in an environment where macro catalysts like Fed cuts dominate sentiment. Other large-cap tokens diverged: Solana (SOL-USD $225.90, +0.94%) gained momentum with Total Value Locked climbing to $12.2 billion, while BNB (BNB-USD $894.82, -0.46%) slipped after setting fresh records earlier in the week.

Valuation Gap Suggests Bitcoin May Be Underpriced

Research from CF Benchmarks signals Bitcoin may be undervalued compared to U.S. M2 money supply growth, with divergence levels not seen since August 2024. Historically, such disconnects preceded strong rallies — notably in 2016, 2019, and 2021. Given monetary expansion typically leads Bitcoin by roughly three months, liquidity injections expected in Q4 2025 could provide fresh upside fuel.

Altcoins and Meme Tokens Deliver Mixed Performance

Altcoins reflected a fragmented picture. Dogecoin (DOGE-USD $0.249, +2.5%) extended weekly gains to nearly +16%, cementing its role as the week’s outperformer. In contrast, Shiba Inu (SHIB-USD $0.0000130, -0.6%) and Pepe (PEPE-USD $0.0000105, -1.2%) lost ground. XRP (XRP-USD $3.00, -0.3%) hovered flat, while Bonk (BONK-USD $0.0000236, +0.75%) edged higher. Market breadth shows capital concentrating back into Bitcoin and a select group of high-liquidity tokens.

IPO Activity Confirms Crypto Sector Momentum

Equity markets within crypto also mirror the surge. Figure Technology Solutions (NASDAQ:FIGR) priced its IPO at $25, raising $787 million, before closing at $35.04 (+40.16%), valuing the blockchain lender at $5.3 billion. At the same time, Gemini raised its IPO target to $3.08 billion, while Circle, Bullish, and eToro all secured public listings this year. The rush to equity markets reflects confidence under Trump-era regulatory tailwinds and shows capital is extending beyond tokens into corporate balance sheets.

Bitcoin Derivatives Reflect Bullish Leverage Build-Up

In the derivatives market, Bitcoin futures open interest climbed to $85 billion, reflecting leveraged positioning by institutions. Options data show neutral-to-bullish skew, with traders hedging downside while accumulating upside exposure into September’s Fed meeting. Funding rates remain positive, consistent with a bullish backdrop, and options volumes around the $120,000 strike highlight traders positioning for a breakout above resistance.

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