Bitcoin stalls below $120K as bullish momentum cools
Bitcoin remains pinned under the critical $120,000 resistance, with BTC-USD slipping 0.3% intraday to $118,350 after last week’s attempt to break through its all-time high of $123,218. Price action has narrowed into a tightening formation, with bulls losing short-term control despite maintaining strong structural support around $116,000–$117,000. This zone has absorbed repeated selling pressure, but upside conviction is fading.
A lack of follow-through above $120K is beginning to erode bullish sentiment. Traders are now focused on whether this consolidation forms a continuation base—or a topping signal masked by low summer liquidity. The RSI remains high at 65, but MACD has flipped to a sell for the first time since early July. Momentum is bleeding out just as ETF outflows begin to surface.
Technical structure warns of breakdown toward $111K if $114K cracks
BTC’s short-term chart has coiled into a descending wedge, and the 4-hour candlestick formation suggests that a resolution is imminent. While this pattern is typically bullish, any breakdown below $114,000–$115,000 could send the price directly to the Fibonacci support range of $107,000–$111,000. That range aligns with the 50-day EMA, now sitting at $110,589, and has historically served as a launchpad in mid-cycle rallies.
Bid walls around $115,000 and $111,300 are the last lines of defense before cascading stops could drive BTC into a correction. Open interest in leveraged longs concentrated in the $116,000–$118,000 band heightens the risk of liquidations should those floors give way.
Exchange flows turn negative as whales de-risk
Whale wallets and long-term holders are starting to ease exposure. Bitcoin registered its largest net exchange inflow in over a year, indicating that holders are moving coins to platforms with the intent to sell. On-chain analysts are now flagging this rotation as a red flag, especially given the cooling of spot demand and the sharp reversal in ETF flows.
This shift comes as altcoin inflows—particularly to Solana (SOL)—outpace BTC on a relative basis. Total crypto market cap fell 1.4% to $3.9 trillion, with Bitcoin dominance slipping slightly to 51.2%, hinting at capital rotation and broader fatigue after the parabolic move since May.
ETF inflow streak breaks as institutions begin profit-taking
The nearly three-week streak of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF inflows abruptly ended on Monday, with net outflows totaling $131.35 million, according to SoSoValue. This reverses the bullish tide that began on July 2 and undermines a key pillar of demand that helped drive BTC above $120,000.
A combination of cautious Fed messaging, looming tariff risk from the Trump administration, and seasonal risk aversion has triggered institutional hesitation. Fund managers are locking in gains near all-time highs, and the absence of dip-buying ETF flows raises the risk of further downside.
MicroStrategy adds 6,220 BTC while Trump Media buys $2B in Bitcoin
Despite weak flows into ETFs, direct corporate accumulation remains aggressive. MicroStrategy (Strategy) acquired 6,220 BTC worth $739.8 million, pushing its holdings to 607,770 BTC, the largest in the world. The company remains the primary long-term price anchor for Bitcoin, converting nearly all balance sheet reserves into BTC since 2020.
At the same time, Trump Media (DJT) executed a massive $2 billion purchase of BTC, moving two-thirds of its asset base into crypto. This doubles as both a speculative treasury play and a political statement, deepening the link between BTC and Trump-era policy. As of now, DJT is down over 40% YTD, making the move risk-heavy.
Sequans (SQNS) and Volcon (VLCN) followed suit—SQNS now holds 2,317 BTC, while VLCN just purchased 280 BTC via a $500 million private raise, marking one of the most aggressive treasury shifts in 2025.
Trump’s GENIUS Act and BTC strategic reserve fuel long-term speculation
The GENIUS Act, now enacted into law, has formalized stablecoin regulation and indirectly strengthened Bitcoin’s position as the base asset for crypto markets. But the more disruptive element remains Trump’s strategic reserve plan: a U.S. government-backed Bitcoin reserve anchored through Trump Media.
This new political entanglement creates a dual narrative—Bitcoin as a state-sanctioned digital gold replacement on one hand, and a politically volatile instrument on the other. The administration has hinted that BTC will be part of a multi-asset reserve strategy aimed at shielding the U.S. from Chinese CBDC dominance and sanction risks, further tying BTC to U.S. macro strategy.
SpaceX BTC transfer injects liquidity risk into short-term view
Adding tension to this fragile setup is SpaceX’s movement of 1,308 BTC—valued at over $153 million—into a newly activated wallet. The transaction breaks three years of dormancy and comes as SpaceX holds 6,977 BTC worth $825 million. While none of these coins have hit exchanges yet, past dormancy breaks have led to delayed selling pressure over 7–14 days.
The transaction aligns with recent ETF outflows and weakening bid-side liquidity, amplifying the danger that any further whale movement—particularly from Elon Musk-linked entities—could trigger risk-off panic.
Momentum breaks down as RSI holds but MACD turns bearish
From a technical indicator lens, RSI remains strong near 65, but this strength has now decoupled from MACD, which just delivered its first confirmed bearish crossover since late June. This divergence is viewed by quantitative traders as a critical signal—momentum is no longer following trend strength.
Traders are now treating $118,000 as the pivot. Break above it on volume revives the move to $127,000, with upside extensions into the $131,000–$135,000 zone. Rejection here and failure to hold $114,000 opens a quick reversion to the $110,000–$111,000 pocket where bids remain thick.
Whale targets and stop clusters define next BTC breakout zone
Several major trading desks have positioned take-profits near $131,000–$139,000, citing the completion of a medium-term wave cycle. Meanwhile, options data shows heavy positioning around $114,000, suggesting that a breakdown there could set off a cascading liquidation wave.
Top analysts including Titan of Crypto and Axel see this formation as a bull pennant that needs volume confirmation. Without that, this becomes a high base topping pattern, and the euphoric targets may never trigger.
BTC-USD Verdict: HOLD — Accumulate Below $111K, Avoid Buys Over $120K
Bitcoin (BTC-USD) remains in a tactical range with fading volume, weakening ETF demand, and rising selling pressure from whales and insiders. However, corporate accumulation and the macro tailwind from Trump’s pro-BTC policy keep the broader trend intact.
Only a breakdown under $111,000 invalidates the bullish structure. Until then, HOLD is the right stance. Look to accumulate on deep dips into $107,000–$111,000, but avoid chasing strength above $120,000 until price confirms with a clean breakout above $123,000 on volume.
