Bitcoin Breaks Down From $106K—Are Bears Aiming for $92K or Will Bulls Hit $138K Next?

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) Tests $105K Amid Correction Risk, Bear Flags, and Institutional Tension

BTC-USD Faces Downside Pressure Below $106K as Momentum Reverses

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) is showing clear signs of exhaustion after pushing to a new all-time high of $111,980 in May, only to reverse sharply to $105,000 by the start of June—down nearly 6% from its peak. This reversal is not merely price noise; it is backed by deteriorating technical indicators and structural risk zones forming across multiple timeframes. The daily RSI has dropped to 53, trending lower, while the MACD shows a fresh bearish crossover with red histogram bars expanding. These momentum signals now align with the emergence of a bear flag on the four-hour chart, targeting a potential breakdown toward $97,000, with further support seen around $92,000, the yearly open.

The lower boundary of the current consolidation is pressing at $104,800, and a confirmed close beneath that level would validate the continuation pattern. Price projection models derived from the flagpole breakdown point toward a measured move as low as $97,690. If breached, $92,000 becomes the next psychological floor. A break below that opens the door to $85,000, a zone that coincides with macro risk pricing and broader liquidity pullback.

Mid-Range Pivots and Key Resistance Zones at $99,600 and $108,000

Short-term volatility is defined by a narrow corridor between $99,600—a mid-range level identified by traders like DaanCryptoTrades—and the $108,000 zone, which served as rejection before the run to ATH. Bitcoin’s inability to reclaim $106,406 last week, followed by repeated intraday rejections around this pivot, has strengthened the case for a slow bleed into lower liquidity zones. The 200-day SMA at $97,600 now serves as dynamic support and is being closely monitored by short-term traders as a potential trigger point for automated buying algorithms.

Failure to defend the $99,600–$97,600 band would significantly raise the likelihood of a deeper retracement, while a sudden breakout above $108,000 could unleash a retest of the all-time high at $111,900. However, bulls are losing energy—May's 11% gain has been nearly erased in the first days of June, and historical returns show June averages a -0.3% pullback, adding seasonal pressure to the narrative.

Quant Overhang and BlackRock’s Quantum Shock Warning

Adding to Bitcoin's fragility is an emerging macro-technical threat that has rattled some institutional nerves: quantum computing risk. A revised filing from BlackRock, which manages over $10 trillion in global assets and holds approximately 3% of all circulating BTC, flagged this as a “potential existential threat” to digital assets. The catalyst came from a Google Quantum AI study slashing the qubit estimate needed to crack public-key cryptography by over 20x—putting the timeline alarmingly ahead of prior forecasts.

This quantum risk scenario, while not immediate, has begun to filter into portfolio positioning models at major ETF providers. If confidence in Bitcoin’s cryptographic resilience deteriorates, flows into spot BTC ETFs like IBIT could reverse direction, weakening demand-side support and accelerating price drops.

This isn’t theoretical anymore: BlackRock’s ETF fund is worth over $70 billion at current prices, and if internal risk limits start adjusting to quantum exposure models, we could witness ETF-driven volatility spillover on BTC/USD price discovery.

Institutional Flows Cautious, Retail Shaken by Trump Tariffs and Macro Headwinds

The macro environment continues to present headwinds. Trump's renewed global tariff war, legal standoff over trade authority, and the coming vote on his “big, beautiful” tax bill have created capital flow distortions across asset classes. As a result, long-term Bitcoin holders are starting to trim, according to 10x Research, suggesting a broader risk-off tilt as macro certainty evaporates.

Although $7 trillion remains parked in money market funds and an additional $2 trillion in fixed income ETFs, very little of it has rotated into crypto this week. Traders are waiting for confirmation: either a clean breakout above $110K or a deeper flush below $100K. Until then, cash-rich funds are not deploying, and retail traders are increasingly sensitive to short-term sentiment shocks.

Still, some bulls point to the potential upside if risk appetite returns. 21Shares strategist Matt Mena argues that if BTC breaks out with volume through $110,000, it could trigger a reflex move toward $120,000, and possibly even accelerate into their summer target of $138,500.

Accumulation Cycle Weakens as BTC Drops Below $106K Compression Zone

From a structural perspective, BTC had been undergoing a classic three-phase price action—Accumulation, Manipulation, and Distribution—as outlined by pseudonymous analyst “Youriverse.” His view explains the breakdown below $106,000 as a transition point out of the ‘strength of three’ model. With the previous resistance at $112,000 rejecting firmly and subsequent compression creating overhead supply, buyers are now absorbing pressure at lower levels—but not fast enough to halt the drift.

The compression phase that marked the climb from $103,100 to $111,000 is now decaying. If the recent support flip to resistance around $106,406 persists through this week’s economic data and the upcoming U.S. jobs report, we could see Bitcoin slide into a new lower structure with $100,000 as a magnet.

Bearish Divergence Building on Weekly Chart—Time for Reset?

Willy Woo, via Bitcoin Vector, highlighted emerging bearish divergence on the weekly chart—where price continues to rise while momentum wanes. This divergence, if confirmed with a failed breakout above $106K–$108K, may trigger a prolonged sideways phase through mid-June. While Woo emphasizes the long-term fundamentals remain intact, the tactical setup increasingly suggests the market is “catching its breath” after a parabolic two-month run.

The broader takeaway from Woo’s research is that Bitcoin has evolved into a macro-responsive asset, behaving more like a signal for liquidity and policy shifts than a pure halving-cycle commodity. He dismisses expectations of orderly post-halving rallies and urges traders to follow capital flow dynamics—especially from central banks and major sovereign wealth funds.

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