Ethereum Price Forecast - ETH to USD Drops Below $4K as $6M Insider Transfer and Oversold RSI Put $3,560 Support in Focus

Ethereum (ETH-USD) Slides Below $4,000 as Co-Founder Moves 1,500 ETH

The price of Ethereum (ETH-USD) has fallen sharply, dropping under the critical $4,000 level and trading near $3,900, marking a 2.2% decline in 24 hours and almost a 20% loss in 12 days. Pressure intensified after co-founder Jeffrey Wilcke transferred 1,500 ETH (valued around $6 million at $3,938 per coin) to Kraken, sparking speculation about insider selling. Earlier in August, he deposited over $9.2 million worth of ETH, and in past years he had moved as much as $262 million into new wallets, cementing his role as a recurring supply-side factor. While such transfers don’t always imply sales, they consistently rattle markets already under strain.

ETH Technical Breakdown: $3,560 in Play as Symmetrical Triangle Fails

Ethereum’s chart structure turned decisively bearish after breaking down from a symmetrical triangle, a move that projects toward $3,560 support, nearly 15% below recent levels. Analysts like Michaël van de Poppe point to the $3,550–$3,750 band as a crucial accumulation zone, with the 20-week EMA serving as a line that bulls must defend. RSI has dipped to 34 on daily charts, sliding into oversold territory. ForkLog data highlights this is one of the most extreme RSI signals since April 2025, when ETH was $1,400 before rallying 134% in two months. Traders like Max Crypto argue that such rare oversold signals have historically marked major turning points, though confirmation above $4,100 resistance is needed before momentum truly shifts.

ETF Flows and Spot Outflows Create Mixed Sentiment

Institutional flows add complexity. Outflows from ETH spot holdings totaled $250 million on September 25, with Fidelity’s FETH seeing the heaviest drain at $158 million. Yet, simultaneously, Ethereum ETFs continue to absorb capital, with over $560 million in inflows last week as BlackRock’s ETH product led the charge. This duality suggests whales and institutions are repositioning—selling spot while building long-term ETF exposure. On-chain data reinforces this view, showing wallets with 1,000+ ETH accumulating again even as leveraged long positions were flushed in recent selloffs.

Macro and Rate Cuts Fuel Longer-Term ETH Bull Case

Ethereum’s correction coincides with the Federal Reserve’s 25 bps rate cut, which reinvigorated risk appetite but also triggered volatility in crypto. With the PCE index at 2.7% and core inflation steady at 2.9%, rate cuts remain cautious, supporting the case for digital assets as alternative yield vehicles. Analysts like Ted Pillows argue ETH remains on a trajectory “well above $10,000 this cycle,” though he sees a short-term retest of $3,600–$3,800 before the next leg higher. His thesis mirrors market psychology charts, placing ETH between the “belief” and “euphoria” phases, with a decisive breakout above $5,000 needed to confirm the next stage.

Institutional Adoption Expands Through Real-World Assets on Ethereum

Beyond speculative flows, Ethereum’s role as the backbone of real-world asset tokenization is strengthening. SharpLink Gaming (NASDAQ: SBET), a Nasdaq-listed company, announced plans to tokenize its equity directly on Ethereum, joining more than $9 billion in tokenized assets already locked on the network. Superstate, managing $800M in RWA-focused funds, is overseeing the process. SharpLink alone holds 837,230 ETH (worth roughly $3.26 billion), underscoring the scale of corporate balance sheet integration. This expansion cements Ethereum’s role beyond DeFi, tying it directly into Wall Street infrastructure and institutional-grade finance.

Competing Narratives: ETH Weakness vs. DeFi Alternatives

While Ethereum struggles technically, smaller projects like Mutuum Finance (MUTM) and meme-fueled experiments such as Maxi Doge ($MAXI) are siphoning retail interest. Mutuum, priced at $0.035 in stage 6 of its presale, has already raised $16.3M from more than 16,500 holders, advertising possible 36x returns with its Chainlink-integrated risk model. Meanwhile, MAXI has raised $2.5M, offering staking and social trading challenges with a presale price of $0.000259. Such speculative activity highlights how ETH corrections often redistribute liquidity into higher-beta plays during altcoin season.

ETH Price Levels to Watch: $3,560 and $3,300 Support vs. $4,841 Resistance

Ethereum must defend $3,900 in the near term, or bears will press toward $3,560, with deeper downside extending into the $3,300–$3,000 zone, where the 200-day EMA aligns. On the upside, analysts identify $4,100 as the first hurdle, with $4,841 as the breakout trigger to reverse the broader downtrend. Above that, a run to $5,000 could open the path toward the long-discussed $9,000–$10,000 cycle targets.

Market Call on ETH-USD

With ETH trading at $3,900, oversold signals flashing historic rarity, and institutional ETF inflows contrasting with heavy spot outflows, the market is caught between bearish short-term momentum and bullish structural adoption. Support around $3,560–$3,600 must hold to prevent a slide toward $3,300. Given the breadth of catalysts and risks, Ethereum (ETH-USD) is a Hold at current levels—bearish near term, but with a bullish longer-term bias supported by ETF demand, corporate tokenization, and altcoin season tailwinds.

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